Houston’s much promised pattern change has arrived, flooding possible

The much promised pattern change in Houston’s weather is finally at hand.

During the last couple of days a tropical system has completely soaked Louisiana, leading to flash flood emergencies across parts of the state, especially for parishes just north of, and along Interstate 10. Beginning later today Houston is going to see increasing amounts of moisture from this system move into the area, which should set the stage for several wet days.

How much?

It is going to be hard to nail down the particulars of when, exactly, the heaviest rain will come. But it’s safe to say, with a tropical air mass moving into place over the region, heavy rain will be possible most days beginning later today through Thursday or Friday. Not every location will get hit every day, but we should see mostly cloudy weather on most days. After five consecutive 100-degree days, and a 99-degree mark on Friday, we should see highs confined to the upper 80s to lower 90s most days.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for between Friday night and Thursday. (Weather Bell)
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for between Friday night and Thursday. (Weather Bell)

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Houston’s hundreds streak continues

Houston’s on a hot streak and not just at the Olympics! Our streak of 100° days was extended to five on Thursday. We were able to do 6 in a row last summer, and we will come close to matching that streak today. The hot weather in Texas has lead to record energy demand across the state:

While no serious weather records are being set with this heat, Texas still sets power records because of population & economic growth. While we should have another scorcher today, as Eric has been talking up this week, cooler temperatures and some good rain chances are coming back our way.

Today

One more day of just a slight chance of a shower or storm, along with continued hot temperatures. A Heat Advisory is once again posted for all of Greater Houston, meaning heat indices will flirt with 110°. Actual temperatures this afternoon will make one more run for 100°, and it will continue to feel very unpleasant. The best chance for showers today will be near the coast and well north and east of the city, but as we saw yesterday, with a quick 1-2″ just outside the West Loop, any isolated shower could produce some heavy rains.

Heat index forecast from HRRR model for 4 PM, shows 105-110° widespread, and even hotter possible in a few spots. (Weather Bell)

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Two more hot days before a major change in Houston, partly clear skies for Perseids tonight

Houston has now had four consecutive days of 100-degree or warmer weather, and I’m afraid we’re going to have to suffer from the heat for a little bit longer before some relief arrives. But more moderate (for August) weather is indeed coming, and it should be here by the weekend.

Today and Friday

For most of the Houston area—with the exception of far eastern portions of the region—high pressure should remain more or less dominant through Friday. This means we’ll see the possibility of a few stray afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but the main story will remain heat, and lots of it. We’ll have a decent chance to hit 100 degrees both days, and low temperatures will remain pretty brutal as well, likely falling only to about 80 degrees. A heat advisory remains in effect.

Saturday

By Saturday we’ll see a transition of sorts. High pressure should weaken, and a cool front will move into northern Texas. Meanwhile, off to the east of Houston, a potent low pressure system will be bringing lots of rain to Louisiana. Houston should see some energy from the front (not particularly cool air, unfortunately) and moisture from the Louisiana system. They should combine to produce highs in the mid-90s, with a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain.

Sunday through Wednesday

By Sunday we should be in the midst of a full-blown pattern change, with highs most days in the low 90s, mostly cloudy weather and good daily rain chances. At this time it doesn’t look like the area will see any extreme rainfall, although there almost certainly will be some thunderstorms. Hopefully we just get about 1 to 3 inches across most of the region, taking the edge off of our burgeoning drought conditions.

Higher rain accumulations are more likely on the east side of Houston. (Weather Bell)
Higher rain accumulations are more likely on the east side of Houston. (Weather Bell)

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Houston to remain in the grip of excessive heat for a bit longer

The greater Houston region saw a rare “excessive heat warning” on Tuesday as low-level moisture stayed put during the afternoon hours, allowing heat indices to briefly exceed 113 degrees. Such conditions will remain for a couple of more days before clouds and increasing rain chances finally bring some relief to the area.

(National Weather Service)
(National Weather Service)

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