Good morning. After some slightly drier air brought a pleasant day to the Houston region on Sunday, we should see one more sunny and warm—but not excessively hot—day before the area settles back into a muggy, warm and on-and-off wet pattern.
Monday
Houston will enjoy another mostly sunny day, with highs likely in the upper 80s. Some coastal areas may see showers during the afternoon, with warmer temperatures. But all in all, for the first half of September, today will be a pretty nice day with moderately lower humidity levels.
In this water vapor image you can see a pocket of drier air over Houston. It will be replaced by Gulf moisture later this week. (NOAA)
Thanks to a cool front stalled across the area, Houston feels a little bit cooler, and just a bit drier this morning. It’s definitely not fall—but it feels pretty decent.
The net effect of this drier air filtering into the region is that we should see decidedly fewer rain showers for a couple of days. Some spotty showers will be possible along and near the coast later this afternoon, but for inland areas rain chances should be near zero with highs near 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Similar conditions should prevail on Monday, with only slight rain chances.
Weak, northerly winds will make for slightly drier conditions today and Monday. (Windyty)
The Houston area has had an interesting couple of days. I think Eric and I have both been surprised by the intensity of some of the sea breeze storms that have fired the last two days. Yesterday saw areas north of Downtown get hammered, with US-59 between Tidwell and Little York especially hard hit by over two and a half inches of rain.
A couple slow moving storms dumped 1-3″ of rain north of Downtown yesterday afternoon. (Harris County Flood Control)
So as we go into the weekend, shall we expect more?
Today
We’re already seeing a few showers this morning, mainly in Northeast Harris and Liberty Counties.
Radar at 6:15 AM shows just a few showers drifting north and northeast toward Liberty County. (GR Level 3)
As we head into this afternoon, storms may be a bit more numerous compared to the last couple days, but that won’t mean that everyone sees rain. As is usually the case, sporadic downpours will be capable of producing 1-3″ of rain in a few spots this afternoon. I suspect a good bunch of the area will not see showers though. So it’s a game of luck today, with the most favored areas initially being east of I-45 and south of US-59 as you head southwest of Houston, then spreading north and west.
HRRR model suggests widely scattered showers & storms this afternoon, diminishing in the evening. (Weather Bell)
Temperatures have struck the mid 90s before rain the last few days. We may do that again today, but I’m guessing that with showers getting an earlier start, low 90s may be the best we can do.
The intensity of showers near Sugar Land and Pearland on Wednesday afternoon surprised me somewhat, as isolated areas saw in excess of three inches of rain along the sea breeze boundary.
Thursday
We’re going to see warm conditions again today, with high temperatures likely rising into the low- to mid-90s. We could again see some sea breeze shower activity this afternoon, with some scattered storms. However I would be surprised if the storms were quite so intense as those on Wednesday, which necessitated a flood advisory. In any case, expect any storms to die down in the early evening hours with the loss of heating.
Friday through Sunday
For this weekend, alas, a cold front appears likely to stall out well before reaching the greater Houston metro area. At the same time some lower pressure will move in from the east, into the upper Texas coast, and draw upon moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The net effect of this for Houston is that high temperatures should be around 90 degrees this weekend, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with summer-like humidity. There will be periodic, scattered rain showers as well, although most areas will likely see less than 1 inch of rain in total.
Progress of cold front as of next Wednesday morning, according to the GFS model. (Weather Bell)
