By Houston’s standards, June hasn’t been too bad. Temperatures are going to end up near normal, or slightly below normal for the month. And during the last week persistent clouds and on-and-off rain showers have generally kept high temperatures in the upper 80s. But all good things must come to an end, and for Houston that means the coming of summer proper, just as we get into July and August. These are always the hottest two months in Houston, and undoubtedly this will be the case in 2017.
My advice: If we all hold hands, and huddle underneath the trees for shade, we just might make it to September.
Although Tropical Storm Cindy veered well to the east of the Houston metro area last week, a very moist tropical air mass remained in its wake. That, combined with lower pressures, has allowed for intermittent tropical downpours during the last five days across the Houston area, with some inches receiving as much as six inches of rain.
Rainfall totals during the last five days for Houston. (National Weather Service)
This pattern should continue for another day or two, before the region finally dries out heading into the weekend.
Wednesday and Thursday
With abundant moisture still hanging around, we’re going to continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with the potential for heavy rainfall. Storm chances are greatest near the coast for the next couple of days, and like we’ve seen for much of this week, one part of Houston could quickly pick up 2 inches of rain while it doesn’t rain at all a few miles away. The upside of this tropical pattern is that high temperatures should remain in the upper 80s—quite pleasant for the end of June.
Houston’s bout with tropical moisture continues, and on Monday afternoon and evening it was the southern side of the region’s chance to contend with heavy rainfall. With 2 to 3 inches falling in a couple of hours, Friendswood, Pearland, and the Clear Lake area were hardest hit as rains briefly filled streets. We should remain in this wet weather pattern for most of the work week.
Today
Another day a lot like Monday. The tropical moisture that’s capable of bringing heavy rains is still hanging around for areas closer to the coast, so we can expect another mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 80s, and a healthy chance of storms later today. Some areas could pick up a quick 1 to 2 inches, while other parts of town see almost no rain. Fortunately, because the storms aren’t that well organized, I don’t think we’re going to see anything more significant than street flooding—if that.
Houston’s temperatures are 2 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit below normal today. (Weather Bell)
A number of people have asked about the early season development of two tropical storms last week—Bret and Cindy—and how this portends for the rest of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Does this signify this year will be a busy one for the tropics? The answer is not really. The following graphic shows the correlation between Atlantic ACE (accumulated cyclone energy, a measure of total seasonal activity) before and after certain dates in a given year. The R-value for an active first three weeks of June (about 0.15 on this graphic) indicates a “very weak” correlation.
R correlation before and after a certain date in the Atlantic. (Brian Brettschneider)
In other words, the fact that three tropical storms have developed before the end of June does not mean a whole lot with regard to potential activity for the rest of the season. If July is busy as well, that’s another story.
Monday and Tuesday
The Houston region experienced some very heavy downpours this weekend, the result of a rare June cold front sagging into the area and combining with high levels of atmospheric moisture. Accumulations of more than 5 inches of rain in a few areas flooded streets, but generally didn’t cause widespread, lingering problems.
This front will hang around for the next few days, allowing for a good chance of scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. I don’t think accumulations will be nearly so great as during the weekend, but certainly we could see some localized heavy rains that briefly turn roadways into waterways. The upside for this weather is that it should keep daytime temperatures in the upper 80s for the most part—a real blessing for late June in Houston. Nighttime lows should be in the mid-70s, rather than the upper 70s.
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for this week. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday through Friday
This pattern should linger through most of the work week, with a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms—although nothing too disruptive—and highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Most areas will probably see about 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain this week.
Saturday and Sunday
By the end of this week we should see high pressure building over the Houston area from the west. The most probable forecast for the coming weekend, then, is partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures climbing into the lower- to mid-90s. A good beach weekend, perhaps?
