Moisture returns, and so does unsettled weather for Houston

Good morning. It’s the eighth anniversary of Hurricane Ike, which made landfall on the eastern end of Galveston Island and moved into the bay. The storm produced a tremendous 15-foot storm surge, and 10 to 20 inches of rain over Harris County. For anyone in the region at the time, it was a harrowing experience. But since then we have largely been free of tropical storms and hurricanes, and it’s looking increasingly likely that will be the case for 2016—although we’re not there quite yet.

In any case, let’s take a look at our rather unsettled weather pattern for the next week or so.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The moisture is back, and we’re seeing evidence of that from a narrow band of thunderstorms that moved in this morning from the Gulf of Mexico, into parts of the southeastern Houston metro area. A flood advisory is in effect for areas just east of Interstate 45 through 7:45 am this morning.

Area of flood advisory in effect until 7:45am CT (National Weather Service)
Area of flood advisory in effect until 7:45am CT (National Weather Service)

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One more dry day before a return to muggier, wetter weather

Good morning. After some slightly drier air brought a pleasant day to the Houston region on Sunday, we should see one more sunny and warm—but not excessively hot—day before the area settles back into a muggy, warm and on-and-off wet pattern.

Monday

Houston will enjoy another mostly sunny day, with highs likely in the upper 80s. Some coastal areas may see showers during the afternoon, with warmer temperatures. But all in all, for the first half of September, today will be a pretty nice day with moderately lower humidity levels.

In this water vapor image you can see a pocket of drier air over Houston. It will be replaced by Gulf moisture later this week. (NOAA)
In this water vapor image you can see a pocket of drier air over Houston. It will be replaced by Gulf moisture later this week. (NOAA)

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Drier, and a break from the rain today and Monday

Thanks to a cool front stalled across the area, Houston feels a little bit cooler, and just a bit drier this morning. It’s definitely not fall—but it feels pretty decent.

The net effect of this drier air filtering into the region is that we should see decidedly fewer rain showers for a couple of days. Some spotty showers will be possible along and near the coast later this afternoon, but for inland areas rain chances should be near zero with highs near 90 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Similar conditions should prevail on Monday, with only slight rain chances.

Weak, northerly winds will make for slightly drier conditions today and Monday. (Windyty)
Weak, northerly winds will make for slightly drier conditions today and Monday. (Windyty)

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An unsettled weather pattern for Houston

The Houston area has had an interesting couple of days. I think Eric and I have both been surprised by the intensity of some of the sea breeze storms that have fired the last two days. Yesterday saw areas north of Downtown get hammered, with US-59 between Tidwell and Little York especially hard hit by over two and a half inches of rain.

A couple slow moving storms dumped 1-3" of rain north of Downtown yesterday afternoon. (Harris County Flood Control)
A couple slow moving storms dumped 1-3″ of rain north of Downtown yesterday afternoon. (Harris County Flood Control)

So as we go into the weekend, shall we expect more?

Today

We’re already seeing a few showers this morning, mainly in Northeast Harris and Liberty Counties.

Radar shows just a few showers drifting north and northeast toward Liberty County. (GR Level 3)
Radar at 6:15 AM shows just a few showers drifting north and northeast toward Liberty County. (GR Level 3)

As we head into this afternoon, storms may be a bit more numerous compared to the last couple days, but that won’t mean that everyone sees rain. As is usually the case, sporadic downpours will be capable of producing 1-3″ of rain in a few spots this afternoon. I suspect a good bunch of the area will not see showers though. So it’s a game of luck today, with the most favored areas initially being east of I-45 and south of US-59 as you head southwest of Houston, then spreading north and west.

HRRR model suggests widely scattered showers & storms this afternoon, diminishing in the evening. (Weather Bell)
HRRR model suggests widely scattered showers & storms this afternoon, diminishing in the evening. (Weather Bell)

 

Temperatures have struck the mid 90s before rain the last few days. We may do that again today, but I’m guessing that with showers getting an earlier start, low 90s may be the best we can do.

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