Hot today—maybe 90°—and storms are possible this weekend in Houston

We’ve got a dynamic forecast ahead, with potential record highs today, more warm weather to end the week, and a chance of storms Saturday night and Sunday morning. Let’s get to it.

Today

It’s going to be quite warm today—ironically because a cold front will be moving through Houston. Matt explained all the details in a special post Tuesday evening, but essentially the combination of a warm air mass already in place and drier air moving in with a cool front this afternoon could be enough to push high temperatures to 90 degrees this afternoon for parts of Houston. We think it will get close—whether we get that warm is dependent upon when the front and drier air arrives (earlier in the afternoon means we’ll be warmer)—and the entire region will be hot regardless.

It’s going to be warm today, with highs possibly reaching 90 degrees in parts of Houston. (National Weather Service)

The other question with today’s forecast is whether any rain showers are likely to break through the capping inversion. Looking at some different variables this morning, I think it’s going to be difficult for most areas to see much, if any rain. A few thunderstorms are possible if the cap breaks, but that would most likely be well north of the metro Houston area.

Thursday and Friday

A cool breeze by Wednesday evening should bring much more seasonable weather to the region by Thursday morning, with lows in the mid- to upper-50s across most of Houston except for the coast. But high temperatures will bounce back quickly into the mid-80s, and a warmer, moist flow will resume off the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday afternoon, or so.

This will set the stage for a very warm day on Friday, with high temperatures possibly reaching 90 degrees, again, under mostly sunny skies.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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How Houston could hit 90° Wednesday

We’ve been talking since last week about how the end of this week and/or the weekend look like hot days in Houston, giving us our first shot at 90° in 2017. However, after looking at weather data today, I think there’s a legitimate chance Houston could officially touch 90° for the first time tomorrow. Not a guarantee by any means, but there’s a chance. And the meteorology around it is sort of interesting, so let’s lay it out for you.

Step 1: Have a warm air mass in place

The recipe for Houston to hit 90° in late April involves a few factors. And this may seem like a “duh” statement, but it’s important to touch on. You need to have a warm enough air mass overhead.

The GFS forecast for 850 mb temperatures tomorrow afternoon is for them to be around +18°C. (Weather Bell)

 

The GFS forecast for tomorrow afternoon has temperatures borderline, but close enough to historically be capable of producing a 90 degree day in Houston. The map of 850mb temperatures above shows how warm it is about 5,000 feet up in the atmosphere. There’s an old school meteorology trick you can use to forecast high temperatures using the 850 mb temperature in the morning. It involves using a sounding (as explained here) and taking the 850 mb temperature down what we call the dry adiabat to the surface. One of the problems tomorrow is that with a front coming through, it creates volatility, which makes using that method difficult. But if you look at forecast soundings for 4 PM tomorrow afternoon, they look healthy for at least an 87-89° sort of day.

The forecasted sounding tomorrow afternoon over Houston is favorable for at least the upper 80s. (BUFKIT, NWS)

 

So on Wednesday, we have just a barely warm enough atmosphere to work with.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Warmer weather returns, thunderstorms possible this weekend in Houston

The onshore flow gets going today, and eventually that moisture will bring the threat of thunderstorms by this weekend.

Today

After another day of low humidity on Monday, conditions will change today as the onshore flow really gets cranked up. We’re going to see increasing southerly winds, which may gust above 20mph, and will raise moisture levels across the area. This may bring some clouds this afternoon, but rain chances will remain near zero as high temperatures rise into the mid-80s. Lows tonight will be warm for late spring, only falling into the low 70s.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be another very warm day, with highs in the upper 80s, but will be punctuated with some uncertainty during the late afternoon and evening hours as a cool front approaches the area. While a cap may limit rain activity, and conditions are not ideal, this front has the potential to produce a broken line of thunderstorms as it moves through Houston later in the day and during the late evening hours. Even so, I’m not anticipating any kind of significant accumulations for areas that do get rain. Temperatures will fall off fairly quickly late Wednesday night after the front’s passage.

Thursday and Friday

The cooler conditions will be short-lived, however, and effectively end later on Thursday. The first half of the day will nonetheless be quite pleasant for the Houston region, with lows dropping to the upper 50s for inland areas, and lower 60s along the coast.

Forecast high temperatures for Friday in Houston. (National Weather Service)

Look for sunny conditions on both Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 80s Thursday, and upper 80s on Friday. I would not be shocked to see the region’s first 90-degree day of the season on Friday, either, but right now I’d bet against it.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Houston’s cold spell ending, another front next weekend could bring storms

Houston is enjoying fine, cool weather this morning, with temperatures ranging from the mid-40s across Montgomery County down to around 60 degrees at the coast. If only this would last, but we know it won’t.

Today

Expect mostly sunny skies today as high pressure persists for most of the day over Houston, with high temperatures rising to about 80 degrees. At some point this afternoon or evening we’ll see the resumption of winds from off the coast. Lows tonight should still get into the low 60s for most of Houston.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, although slightly warmer for the region, and with the persistent onshore flow we’ll see a much warmer night, with overnight lows into Wednesday morning about 10 degrees warmer.

Wednesday

For a couple of days we’ve been watching the possibility of a cool front on Wednesday with a “will it or won’t it” question as to whether it will move all the way through the Houston area. Now it looks like the front will indeed make it through, and now the question is its potential for rain. Conditions are more favorable for rain north of Houston than over central or southern parts of the region, and even then I don’t think we’re looking at more than a tenth of an inch, or two. Highs in the mid-80s.

A weak front should make it through by late Wednesday night. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

The cool front will give us a brief reprieve in overnight temperatures, and I expect central and northern parts of Houston will have a chance to get into the upper 50s on Thursday morning before another warm day in the mid-80s. Less humidity will also feel nice—but it won’t last.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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