Good morning, everyone. The National Weather Service in Houston has posted a Flash Flood Watch for the entire region through tomorrow evening. As expected, conditions will become more favorable for flooding to occur in the hardest hit parts of the area as we go deeper into today, tonight, and tomorrow.
The NWS hazards map as of 8:30 AM shows a Flash Flood Watch posted for just about the entire region through Sunday evening. (NWS)
Rainfall since yesterday afternoon across the area has been mostly manageable to this point. Northwest Harris County has seen 1-3″, while central and southeast portions of the county have received about a half inch to perhaps up to 1.5″ of rainfall.
An average of about 1-2″ of rain has fallen over much of the area since yesterday. (Harris County Flood Control)
Outside of Harris County, Galveston has already set a daily rainfall record for today with over 4″ reported as of the 8 AM observation.
And so it begins … as of the early afternoon hours we’re beginning to see scattered light to moderate rain showers moving into the southern and southeastern parts of the Houston metro area, primarily along the coast. This marks the beginning of about 72 hours in which we’re going to see the region’s wettest period since early this summer.
Matt covered the broad dynamics of the coming rains in a comprehensive post this morning, and at this point not much has changed. I’ve looked over the 12z model guidance and the range of solutions is still pretty broad—from widespread accumulations of 1-2 inches across much of Houston to upwards of 9 inches for wide swaths of the region.
As of 2:45pm CT on Friday the rains are remaining largely offshore. But that will change. (Intellicast)
We’ll be quiet for most of the morning today, but clouds will gradually thicken up overhead. Rain showers should begin to break out to our south and west by midday, spreading north and east through afternoon.
Short term HRRR model shows numerous showers developing across Texas today. Some will move into Houston later this afternoon and tonight. (Weather Bell)
A patchwork of scattered showers should be strung out around Houston by the evening commute.
This means that the Christmas tree lighting forecast in Downtown Houston isn’t looking fantastic right now. That said, if the HRRR above is right, we may be able to get it in without too many issues. If you are planning to go, make sure to double check the city’s website or social media feeds.
It may be a bit damp at times for the tree lighting tonight in Downtown Houston
Periods of rain and perhaps thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. We may see heavier rain along and north of I-10 toward morning. That may pivot toward Houston more tomorrow. Basically, the whole area will see rain, heavy at times, and thunderstorms at various points through the day Saturday.
A forecast caution here: Yes, it will be a stormy couple of days, but it probably will not rain in your neighborhood the whole time. This type of rain will come in fits and starts. Trying to time exactly when and where we see the heaviest rain is exceptionally difficult more than 12 hours in advance with storm systems like this.
A new month means a new sponsor for Space City Weather, and I’m pleased to announce that Harmony Strings will support the site in December.
(Harmony Strings)
Thanks to their generous support we can provide all of our weather content for free, and with minimal advertisement, for the entire month of December. Here’s a little bit more about their business:
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The advantage of the sponsorship model is that we are under no pressure to generate web traffic for the sake of web traffic—so there’s no hype, no click bait and no nonsense. All we’ll do is continue to make the best possible forecasts we can make.
