Good morning. How pleasant it is to wake up to a clear radar and partly sunny skies!
Low pressure is moving away from the upper Texas coast, and as a result so the likelihood of organized storm activity is fading. And thank goodness. I’ll have a more comprehensive wrap-up on Monday, but even yesterday, when most areas saw less rain, parts of the eastern Houston metro area near Mont Belvieu saw in excess of 10 inches of rain in six hours. This was a nasty system and I’m glad to see it go.
As the upper-level low pressure system has slowly moved south-southeast during the last 24 hours we’ve seen the focus of the heaviest rains move closer to the Texas coast and offshore. This is borne out both in the radar image this morning, and 24-hour rain totals.
When we look at total rain accumulations during the 24 hours preceding 9am CT on Saturday morning we can see, too, that the heaviest rains shifted from north of Houston to closer to the coast, and east of the area.
During the last couple of days there’s been a fair amount of hype about the potential for a tropical depression, or storm, to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. As of this afternoon the National Hurricane Center predicts there is a 60 percent chance an area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula does just that.
We have not focused on this system for two simple reasons. First of all, Houston has been dealing with its own super soaker for the last several days, quite apart from this tropical system. Secondly, regardless of whether it develops, this mess is moving toward Florida and will have little to no effect on Texas weather.
After a stormy Thursday, though certainly one that could have been worse for Houston, I’m hopeful for a more optimistic situation today (though not one where rain chances magically disappear unfortunately). A Flash Flood Watch remains posted into Saturday evening, so we’ve got another day and change to stay on guard. Let’s break it down.