Space City Weather

Near-normal Atlantic hurricane season likely, but some Gulf concerns

May 11, 2016 at 10:02 am by Eric Berger

To begin with, I’ll be honest and say I don’t place much stock in hurricane season forecasts. For one, they’re not particularly accurate (although they do demonstrate some skill). Secondly, although it may be a slow hurricane season overall, if the one big storm that develops hits your community it sure wasn’t a slow hurricane season for you. With that being said there are three main factors we can look at now to get some sense of what is coming beginning on June 1 with the Atlantic season.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

Simply put, when all other things are equal, warm water provides more fuel for hurricanes. At their most basic level hurricanes are essentially heat exchangers, bringing heat from the tropics into the northern latitudes. More heat in the tropics means more potential energy for these storms.

In the chart below the European forecast model is predicting the sea surface temperature anomaly for the period of July through September, the most critical months for hurricane formation and the state of Texas.

Sea surface temperature anomaly for July through September. (ECMWF)

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Houston to see a brief reprieve from muggy conditions, but storms possible late this weekend

May 11, 2016 at 6:58 am by Eric Berger

The low temperature this morning has only fallen into the low 70s across most of the Houston area this morning,a nd so it goes as we get deeper into May…

TODAY

Some scattered showers moved across parts of Houston early this morning. We also can’t rule out some more spotty showers and thunderstorms this morning and later today with afternoon heating—especially to the far north and northwest of the city. But for the most part, the region will see cloudy skies give way to partly sunny skies later today. I expect high temperatures to climb into the upper 80s again today, along with strong southerly winds gusting to above 20 mph.

THURSDAY

We’ll see another warm, partly sunny day on Thursday, with the possible development of scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day and during the overnight hours as a cool front approaches and moves through Houston. With that being said conditions aren’t overly favorable for the development of storms, so I’d expect a broken line of showers as the front moves down through Texas and into the Houston area. Highs, again, will be in the upper 80s.

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Sizing up Houston’s tax day floods—all hail our reservoirs

May 10, 2016 at 1:19 pm by Matt Lanza

The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has released their second report on the Tax Day Flood event last month. There isn’t anything shockingly new in this report, but it is an interesting read and brings the historic event into greater focus. I’ve scoured it and pulled a few interesting nuggets and images. (Note: For larger versions of the images just click on them.)

Large stretches of Western Harris County creeks and bayous saw 100 to 500 year flood levels exceeded. (HCFCD)

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Muggier now for Houston, but the weekend looks pretty nice

May 10, 2016 at 6:55 am by Eric Berger

Good morning. It’s a muggy start to the morning, with near 100 percent humidity across much of the area this morning and low temperatures in the low 70s.

TODAY and WEDNESDAY

Although there’s some moisture in the atmosphere, a capping inversion should preclude any shower activity over the Houston metro area. We’re going to see partly sunny skies, and temperatures for both today and Wednesday will likely rise into the mid- to upper 80s. Probably the most defining feature of the day will be winds. Although we won’t see the extreme gusts we saw Monday morning in parts of Houston, we should see gusts above 15 to 20mph on both days.

Like on Tuesday morning, we'll see relative humidity on Wednesday morning in the 99 to 100 percent range. (Weather Bell) — Like on Tuesday morning, we’ll see relative humidity on Wednesday morning in the 99 to 100 percent range. (Weather Bell)

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