Spooky quiet heading into the weekend

Alright, so it isn’t spooky quiet per se, but I wanted to get the spirit of Halloween in this post. It’s quiet in the weather department around Houston. It really hasn’t been so bad lately, though I think a good bit of us would prefer some slightly cooler temperatures. We may get our wish later next week.

Drought update

First off, Eric talked earlier this week about drought returning to Texas. Indeed it has. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor update showed coverage of moderate (D1) or severe (D2) drought nearly double in Texas from 5.9% last week to 10.8% this week.

After a dry month or two, coverage of drought is expanding in East Texas. (US Drought Monitor)
After a dry month or two, coverage of drought is expanding in East Texas. (US Drought Monitor)

 

Most of this is in northeast Texas east of Dallas. But the area around Southeast Texas has grown also, with areas just east of the city and much of Waller, Austin, Colorado, and Lavaca Counties now in moderate drought. Even with some rain chances next week, total rainfall continues to look a bit sluggish in our region, so I expect we’ll see this dry weather maintain its grip on much of the state.

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A cool front finally shows up on Houston’s horizon

Houston’s forecast remains largely unchanged. As with some previous mornings, calm winds and cooler grounds will lead to the development of some radiation fog this morning and likely through the weekend. A front remains several days off.

Today and Friday

With high pressure off to the west and easterly winds, we’ll continue to see warm but not unpleasant days with highs in the mid 80s, and nighttime temperatures in the 60s (down near 60 degrees north of Houston, and upper 60s along the coast). Skies will remain mostly sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

High pressure moves closer to the Houston region, so we may see temperatures tick up a degree or two, but I’d still anticipate highs in the mid-80s for the most part with lows in the 60s.

Halloween

We’ll start to see more moisture moving into the Houston area on Monday, and this could lead to the development of a few scattered showers later during the day. I wouldn’t worry about anything too disruptive for trick-or-treating, however. Highs, again, in the mid-80s. Temperatures during the trick-or-treating hour will likely be in the mid- to upper-70s.

Ten-day forecast from the GFS model. (Weather Bell)
Ten-day forecast from the GFS model. (Weather Bell)

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Houston’s forecast is neither trick nor treat, just boring

Well, if you like consistency, this forecast is for you. And if you want to see some truly fall-like weather, it is not. For the remainder of October, and at least the first few days of November, Houston will continue to see temperatures 2 to 5 degrees above normal.

Wednesday through Sunday

A stagnant pattern has settled over Houston, with high pressure to the west of the region, and easterly winds. This will lead to mostly sunny days, rain chances near zero and warmish temperatures for late October.

It's not just Houston. With high pressure over the western United States temperatures in some areas may be 25 degrees or more warmer than normal. (Weather Bell)
It’s not just Houston. With high pressure over the western United States temperatures in some areas may be 25 degrees or more warmer than normal. (Weather Bell)

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Houston nearing a drought again, little relief in sight

With very little (ok, none) rain in the forecast let’s discuss for a moment the possibility of a drought returning to the greater Houston area.

A drought returns?

Harris County hasn’t been in a “moderate” or worse drought since August, 2015. However, last week most of the region fell into the “abnormally dry” category, which is just one step below a drought in the catalog kept by the US Drought Monitor.

(US Drought Monitor)
(US Drought Monitor)

We are starting to see other indications of almost-drought like conditions crop up across the state after a dry late summer and early fall. According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, 57 Texas counties now have burn bans, including Waller, Austin and Wharton counties just to the west of the Houston metro area.

Texas counties with burn bans. (Texas A&M Forest Service)
Texas counties with burn bans. (Texas A&M Forest Service)

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