Well, the southern scenario did indeed play out today, with the bulk of the heavy rain remaining well to the south of the Houston metro area. Areas between Corpus Christi and Victoria received 8 to 12 inches of rain, but the city of Houston generally got 1 inch or less. This increases my confidence that we’re going to get out of this week without major, widespread flooding. But some trouble spots remain, and first up is Tuesday night.

As the rains move out of Houston later this afternoon we’re going to see a break in widespread rain. There may be a few pop-up showers, but I think the radar is going to remain pretty clear for the next 24 hours. But by mid-afternoon Tuesday, with enough daytime heating, we could see some seabreeze showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. For me the bigger concern is a cool front, an associated storm system that is going to roll over central Texas during the day. That area is under an “enhanced” threat of severe weather as a result. This system may potentially impact the Houston area after sunset on Tuesday.

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Good morning. After a very soggy weekend, Houston is in store for more precipitation this week. There will be some locally heavy rains undoubtedly, but it’s my hope that the rain will be spread out far enough over the next four to five days that our bayous will have time to do their work, and we won’t see major, widespread flooding. Nevertheless it’s May, it’s storm season, so we certainly can’t be sure of that. Let’s discuss.

TODAY

An upper-level storm system is moving across the state, but it has remained to the south of the Houston metro area this morning, closer to Corpus Christi. Up to a foot of rain has fallen over parts of the Rockport, Port Aransas, and Corpus Christi areas over night. This was the southern scenario I discussed last night, which means Houston may potentially see less rain that than previously expected. There’s still some uncertainty, but I think as of right now the metro area is likely to see 1 to 3 inches of rain today, with higher amounts closer to the coast. Accordingly, Fort Bend, Brazoria and Galveston counties are under a flash flood watch this morning, but Harris County is not.

It’s still possible that very heavy rain will develop over central and northern Houston, but as of now it looks like the bulk of the rain will remain to the south. If that changes we’ll let you know. In any case, these storms will move off to the east by the afternoon or early evening hours, and I expect dry conditions tonight. Highs near 80 degrees.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY

After fairly calm conditions Monday night and Tuesday morning we’re going to see a warm day, with highs likely in the upper 80s. This heating, combined with an approaching cool front, will produce a chance of severe weather later during the day and evening. Although conditions will be more favorable for severe weather to the west of the Houston metro area, the city could still see some heavy rains, damaging winds and hail.

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