As “extremely dangerous” flooding continues, storms likely to weaken later today

A large area of showers and thunderstorms has continued to move into the Houston metropolitan area this morning, and the entire region is under a flash flood warning through 1 pm CT. This post will discuss the immediate effects of these devastating floods and then discuss how we may see an improvement in conditions later today.

FLOODING

Due to 12 to 18 inches of rain falling overnight across western and northwestern parts of the Houston metro area a number of bayous have exceeded their banks. This has led to dozens of high-water rescues and neighborhood flooding. According to the Harris County Flood Control District the following waterways (13 of 22 watersheds) are currently flooding homes in the county:

  • Cypress Creek
  • Willow Creek
  • Little Cypress Creek
  • White Oak Bayou
  • Greens Bayou
  • Brays Bayou (US 59 to 610)
  • Willow Water hole
  • Keegans Bayou
  • Halls Bayou
  • Horsepen Creek
  • Langham Creek
  • Bear Creek
  • South Mayde Creek

Water has inundated homes in more than 100 neighborhoods, primarily concentrated on the western side of the county. These rains have affected a much larger area than the Memorial Day Floods, which were concentrated in a relatively small, but heavily populated area of southwestern Houston.

We are at the point where another 3 to 6 inches of rain today across the metro Houston area would exacerbate flooding of these waterways, and put much of the rest of the county into a truly catastrophic flooding situation. But will that occur?

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Stalling storms will lead to additional flooding today

Storms continue for much of the Houston metro region this morning, as a line of showers sags slowly into central and southeastern parts of the city. But overall we’re not seeing a whole lot of movement as a major line of storms set up along the I-10 corridor to the west of Houston.

This is largely due to a convergence of winds coming down from the north and meeting with more winds coming off the Gulf of Mexico. This does two things: Convergence at the surface leads to rising air, a key ingredient of thunderstorms, and it is not allowing the storms to move much. Here’s what this looks like in terms of surface winds.

Surface wind depiction from the GFS model this morning. (earth.nullschool.net)
Surface wind depiction from the GFS model this morning. (earth.nullschool.net)

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When is the rain going to end? Here’s the sobering reason we can’t answer that question

I have a couple of sobering images for you this morning. First of all, here’s a map of the total rainfall between yesterday and about 6am this morning. As you can see some areas have already received well in excess of 10 inches, and a large chunk of the region has gotten 6+ inches.

Rainfall accumulation between Sunday evening and Monday morning. (NOAA)
Rainfall accumulation between Sunday evening and Monday morning. (NOAA)

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Flash flood emergency: Life-threatening flooding now occurring

Good morning.

It has been an exceptionally rainy night, with 10 to 15 inches of rain falling across a wide swath of western and northern parts of the Houston metro area. The Houston Fire Department performed at least 15 high-water rescues during the overnight hours, and Harris County has performed dozens. Major flooding is occurring along the following waterways:

  • Cypress
  • Little Cypress
  • South Mayde
  • Bear
  • Willow
  • Spring
  • White Oak Bayou
  • Greens Bayou

As a result of these heavy overnight rains a flash flood emergency is in effect for the following areas through 9 a.m. This means that extremely dangerous and life-threatening conditions exist, and that all travel should be avoided.

A flash flood emergency is in effect through at least 9am CT. (National Weather Service)
A flash flood emergency is in effect through at least 9am CT. (National Weather Service)

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