A lot of people have been asking for when it might rain next, and now the forecast is becoming more clear. So here’s a quick weekend update on rain chances for the next few days.
MONDAY
If you’ve been outside today you’ve probably felt the increasing moisture levels, and seen some clouds. That’s atmospheric moisture returning to Houston, and high resolution forecast models show the possibility of locally heavy rain on Monday morning, from a few hours before sunrise through around 9 a.m. I’d characterize the uncertainty about amounts of rain as “high,” but there’s definitely the potential for some areas to pick up a quick inch of rain. Most parts of Houston, however, are more likely to only see a tenth or two of an inch of rain during the morning hours.
Another round of showers is possible in the afternoon, however the better chances for rain, and possibly severe weather, lie well to the northeast of Houston later on Monday.
Storms are possible Monday to the northeast of the Houston metro area. (NOAA)
Our lengthy stretch of stellar, stunning, <insert your favorite adjective here> weather will gradually wind down over the next couple days, as we return to more humid weather and some rain chances next week.
TODAY
We’re starting off today pleasant again. Temperatures are generally in the mid 50s region-wide, though a few spots in the city are around 60°, particularly south and east of Downtown. High clouds will continue to stream across the region today.
Satellite image this morning shows high clouds streaming across Texas. (College of DuPage)
As long as clouds aren’t too thick, we should manage around 80° or lower 80s again. Otherwise, we will be a couple degrees cooler. No issues though, with continued low humidity.
WEEKEND
After another relatively pleasant morning, Saturday should be similar to Friday, with sun and high clouds. Temperatures will again be contingent on how thick the cloud cover is, but we’ll likely be a few degrees cooler than Friday regardless; say upper 70s for now. I can’t fully rule out a shower tomorrow afternoon, but the odds would be very low. The best chance would be north and west of town.
Saturday afternoon dewpoints in the 50s means another day of comfortable, low humidity. (Weather Bell)
On Sunday, onshore flow will have been established pretty persistently. This will bring warm, moist air off the Gulf, and the humidity will edge upwards. There will likely be some clouds around, mixed with sun. A chance of showers exists, but it is a low chance. Temperatures will press back to near 80 degrees.
NEXT WEEK
Monday will carry a low chance of showers, along with clouds and sun and temperatures again around 80°. If you’re attending the Astros home opener, I’d probably lean 60/40 on the roof being closed right now. Hopefully we get it open for a few games next week though.
Forecast confidence plunges Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I expect showers and storms to become more numerous, but the key to unlocking rain chances is trying to time upper level storm systems that we just can’t do 4+ days out (I’ve seen the heaviest rain shift 12 hours and 100 miles around Texas between weather model runs the last couple days). But I think there’s a good chance some heavy rain will return to the forecast for parts of the area midweek next week (though not every single day). Behind that, we should briefly return to nice spring weather and low humidity for late week. These “nice” windows of weather are going to get shorter and shorter as our typical summer pattern develops. Enjoy it while you still can.
MS-150
As Eric told you yesterday, mild temperatures are expected right now. No changes there or on the idea of a tail wind being dominant. However, the bigger issue may be rain. Some models indicate thunderstorms next Sunday between Houston and Austin. This is very much a “let’s wait and see” forecast right now. All options are still on the table, so stay tuned!
Good morning, it’s pleasantly cool out this morning, with low temperatures falling to around 50 degrees for most of the area in the wake of a cool front that moved into Houston on Wednesday.
TODAY
We’re now set up for three really nice days of spring-like weather. Today, with ample dry air and clear skies,we could see temperatures climb all the way into the low-80s, but we’ll still see a cool nights in the mid- to upper-50s as temperatures fall with the sunset.
Embrace to cool air, Texas, because in a few weeks most of this map will be orange during the morning hours. (Weather Bell)
It’s quite a bit warmer out this morning, with lows falling only to around 60 degrees across most of the Houston metro area.
TODAY
Highs today should climb into the upper 70s under partly cloud skies, and a cool front should reach the area during the afternoon hours, likely moving off the coast before sunset. Most likely it will be a dry front, with only a slight chance of spotty showers. Drier air will make for a cooler night tonight.
High resolution models show some spotty shower development near the coast this afternoon, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. (Weather Bell)
