Rodeo on the horizon, and the forecast is mostly gray

Skies are partly clear across the region this morning, but clouds will increase throughout the day, and I’m afraid we’re looking at mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the week. We’ll also see healthy rain chances through Friday or Saturday—which means less-than-ideal conditions for the upcoming Houston Rodeo Cook Off, and part of the opening weekend for Mardi Gras in Galveston. We’ll dive into this in greater detail below.

Monday

With Sunday’s cold front well offshore, we’ll see a breezy, cool day today, with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This is probably also the last day with near-zero rain chances until Sunday as conditions turn wetter. Temperatures tonight will drop to around 50 degrees—cooler inland and warmer near the coast. The wetter pattern should begin as soon as this evening, as light rain showers migrate inland.

Tuesday

Broadly speaking, our pattern for much of this week will be one of a thin layer of colder air at the surface, and a warmer, moist current of air from the southwest higher up in the atmosphere. Tuesday looks especially wet, with a saturated atmosphere and near 100 percent rain chances. The heavier rain should remain largely to the northeast of Houston, with the metro area generally seeing about one-half inch of rain. All told, this will be a cold (mid-50s), damp day.

Wednesday

A weak, reinforcing cool front will push into Houston later Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, and this could bring some brief, partially clearing skies. But rain chances aren’t going away entirely, and highs probably will only get up to around 60 degrees.

Houston Rodeo Cook Off outlook

This year, in conjunction with our sponsor Reliant, we’re going to offer daily forecasts for conditions at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo—basically, if you’re going to the show, what to expect before and after the concert that evening. We’re going to kick things off today with a short preview of weather for the Cook Off on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

Thursday will be cooler, around 60, before conditions warm up on Friday and Saturday into the 70s. None of these days will see much sunshine, and each probably will have a healthy 40 to 50 percent rain chance as warmer, moist air moves inland from the Gulf of Mexico. We’re almost certainly not looking at heavy rain, but periods of light-to-moderate rain will certainly be possible throughout the Cook Off. So conditions won’t be ideal, but they won’t be terrible either.

Sunday

Another relatively weak cold front should move through later on Saturday, or Sunday morning, allowing for better weather for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures are a bit of a crapshoot at this point, likely in the 60s or low 70s, but there’s a pretty good chance we see partly to mostly sunny skies, which will be a nice change after a gray week. Enjoy it, because the clearer skies probably won’t last.