Storms possible Wednesday night, with winds and heavy rain

After rather sedate weather on Christmas Day, Houston will fall into a more dynamic weather pattern beginning later on Wednesday, with a front tonight and some potentially severe storms. No one wants a system like this, but at least it’s likely to strike during the overnight hours when most people are at home rather than out and about.

Wednesday

Temperatures are warm and muggy this morning, generally in the low 60s, which is more typical for highs this time of year rather than lows. Some showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible later this morning and this afternoon, but we’re not too concerned about accumulations (probably one-half inch or less for most areas). Highs today will probably top out at about 70 degrees under cloudy skies.

After any daytime showers, we think there probably will be diminished rain chances this evening through at least about midnight. However, after that time a line of (likely) strong showers and thunderstorms will sweep from west to east, ahead of a cold front. It seems likely the line of storms will reach the College Station area between midnight and 3am, and push through the Houston area between 3am and 6am. The storms should be clearing the area by around sunrise or shortly thereafter. The primary threat is damaging winds, with a lesser threat of tornadoes (which should be short-lived).

In terms of rainfall, I don’t have a great amount of confidence in the forecast. A lot of models show a fairly progressive system, that should limit accumulations to 1-2 inches for most of the metro area. On the other hand, a few models are showing 2-4 inches, and several recent rain events have out-performed the model forecasts. My best guess is for 1-3 inches today and tonight, with higher isolated totals of 5 inches possible. The threat of heavier rain is generally to the north and west of metro Houston.

Thursday

Northwesterly winds should begin to force dew points downward by late morning Thursday, and I expect to see some clearing skies by the afternoon hours. HIghs will probably hold at about 70 degrees, and lows Thursday night should drop to around 50 degrees in the city of Houston.

Friday

This will be the nicest day of the week, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures likely in the upper 60s. Northwest winds should be relatively light. Enjoy this, because after this point weather for the remainder of 2018 isn’t going to be anything to celebrate.

Saturday and Sunday

We’re going to be in a somewhat messy situation for the weekend as Thursday’s front kind of gets hung up offshore, and then interacts with another front working its way down from the north. Effectively, this will lead to rather drab conditions for both Saturday and Sunday, with mostly gray skies, highs in the 50s, and overnight lows in the 40s. We’re also likely to see on-again, off-again light to moderate rainfall.

New Year’s Eve and Day

This bleh weather will probably continue into New Year’s Eve, with more rain showers possible, continued leaden skies, and highs in the 50s. The only good news is that, at least right now, rain chances appear to begin lessening by Monday afternoon or evening, which means that nighttime festivities on New Year’s Eve could be dry. (No promises!) It’s going to be chilly regardless, with temperatures probably around 50 degrees to ring in the New Year.

New Year’s Day could be decent, with partly sunny skies and highs perhaps getting up to around 60 degrees. We shall see.