Temperatures are going to plummet before Christmas. The question is how low they will go

The month of December has started off ridiculously warm. Through Monday the region has recorded an average temperature of 69 degrees, which is 12 degrees above normal. However, after one more day the greater Houston region will see a shift toward more winter-like weather. It is not going to get spectacularly cold, rather temperatures will just slip back toward our typical December pattern of highs generally in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. The real question is what comes after that. Looking at the big picture, we can see that the coldest air mass on the planet, at present, lies over the Siberia region of Russia, where surface temperatures in some locations are in the -55 to -75 degree Fahrenheit range.

Surface temperatures, in Celsius, as of Noon CT on Tuesday. We’ve highlighted a mass of cold air over Siberia. (Weather Bell)

The pattern over the next week suggests that this very cold air will be drawn into Canada. After that, it’s a matter of where this air mass goes. A preponderance of modeling brings it down into the Central United States. And then? Well the question is whether the air continues diving into the deep South, toward the Gulf of Mexico, or is shunted more eastward. At this point we are talking about weather 8 to 10 days from now, so uncertainty in this is high. However, there is clearly the potential for very cold air to move into Texas, whereby we could see lows in the teens over the Christmas holiday in Houston. Low temperatures might also be 40 degrees. This far out it is difficult to forecast with any real confidence. But it is going to get cold during the last week of this year. Perhaps even very cold to the point where we need to worry about pipes, pets, plants, and power. We should have more confidence in this forecast in a couple of days.

Tuesday

In contrast to what is coming later this month, Tuesday will be absolutely balmy. Low temperatures this morning have only fallen to around 70 degrees in Houston. We’re going to see spotty showers this morning, with perhaps some thunderstorms developing this afternoon or early evening ahead of a cold front. While we cannot rule out some severe storms, at this time I expect most of this weather to remain northeast of the Houston metro area. Look for highs today to push near 80 degrees, with high humidity. Winds will be gusty, out of the south, at up to 20 mph before the front. Drier air should move in with the front this evening, perhaps reaching the metro area around 6 to 9 pm, and the coast by around midnight.
Tuesday will probably be the last really warm day of 2022. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

Lows on Wednesday morning may briefly dip into the 50s, but with clearing skies we should see highs climb into the low 60s. As moderate northerly winds back off on Wednesday night we’ll see low temperatures drop efficiently, down into the mid-40s in Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of winter-like days, with sunny skies and highs in the vicinity of the low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. This period represents our best chance of guaranteed sunshine for awhile, so soak it up.

Saturday and Sunday

An additional shot of cooler air arrives on Friday night, and this will lead to chilly conditions this weekend with highs in the 50s, or possibly 60 degrees by Sunday. Both days will be partly sunny, but also have a decent chance of rain. The challenging part of the forecast is that we’re pretty confident there will be some showers offshore, but we’re not certain whether and how far this rainfall will migrate inland. So if you live south of Interstate 10, call it a 30 or 40 percent chance of light rain each day, with lesser chances further inland.

Monday

An onshore flow looks set to resume on Sunday, and this will probably set the stage for a wetter Monday ahead of the region’s next cold front. How wet? I would not be surprised to see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall on a warmer day when highs climb into the 60s, because there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture to work with.

Winter is coming to the Lower 48 states. Well, most of them. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday and beyond

We’ve got a cold front penciled in for Tuesday of next week, which may drop lows into the 30s for a few days. After that the most plausible scenario is a shot of even colder Arctic air, as discussed at the outset of this post. It becomes really difficult to parse details beyond this, but the overall pattern does support the influx of much colder air just prior to, and on Christmas Day. I think the atmosphere probably will be too dry to squeeze out any snowfall, but at this point I would not entirely rule out a white Christmas in Houston. I just would not put the chances at much higher than 10 percent.

Even though the holidays are coming, rest assured that Matt, Maria, and I will be covering this all for you as much as needed.

33 thoughts on “Temperatures are going to plummet before Christmas. The question is how low they will go”

      • Both is appropriate. ERCOT is responsible for the market and insuring enough power is purchased. Center point is responsible for the local distribution. And while there has been plenty of discussion regarding the improvement of winterization of generation facilities we’ve seen very little about what the gas pipelines or water utilities have done to prepare. Plenty of blame to go around.

        • Don’t hold your breath. The state lege required NG facilities winterize unless they wanted to purchase a waiver….for $150. Hmmm…I wonder what they did?

          • I hope the Governor subscribes to the Space City Weather site – he may want to get on the phone to his minions at ERCOT to “get ready” again.

            After all, the governor signed a piece of paper and declared “mission accomplished’ at fixing everything.

    • Centerpoint has absolutely zero to do with that. That’s ERCOT and power generation. Check your facts before you blurt out silly things

  2. All my daughter has wanted this season is snow. If snow flurries happen to make an appearance this Christmas, she would be so happy.

        • Good thought Bill eventhough parents would tell you not to sound like a grinch and let kids dream of a white chrsitmas.

        • yep if they want snow that’s a way of having it .. but why in the hell they want snow is beyond me .. sure isn’t anything to do with Jesus’s birth .. he was born and lived his life in the sub-tropics.

  4. Thank you for this weather update. I am getting married on Friday with a quick 5-10 minute official ceremony in the park in League City at 2:30pm. We will need an umbrella?

  6. Please inform ERCOT of these possible freezing temperatures. They always use “unexpected” weather as their excuse.

  8. Can you give a brief explanation of how so much air that is SO cold is created in Siberia? Why isn’t there a similar effect in northern Canada? Or north Europe? What is it, geographically, about Siberia that allows it to generate such cold air?

    • Earth Scientist chiming in! It’s because of the size of the Siberian landmass so near to the pole. It’s difficult for air over water to get that cold, and a lot of northern Canada is made up of islands in the Arctic. Europe similarly is surrounded by seas (and a strong warm ocean current) that moderate the temperature.

  9. I am from a northern climate and would like to say this is an opportunity to educate your viewers on tips to help avoid burst pipes.

    For example letting your cupboard doors (under sinks) stay open and warm air circulating underneath and also keeping a very modest drip-drip going in the faucets during the whole freeze period.

    These are things that may help avoid a Christmas disaster.

    • Dripping faucets unfortunately can cause the water pressure throughout the system to drop to unacceptably low levels. That’s exactly what happened in in Feb. 2021.

  10. Why is TV hyping the tornadoes in our area for this afternoon and downpours? I need to go from Humble to the Woodlands and will be driving from 1-4 . Will I have problems???

  11. My 3 year old is insistent that Christmas=snow. I keep telling her it won’t snow but if it does she’ll probably have that expectation from now on!!

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