Month: April 2018

Dust off the jackets Saturday, Houston

A lot to get to today, but the big headline this morning is that Saturday’s forecast has changed. You’ll want the jacket handy.

Today

As of now, we think that, while we will have scattered showers around today, the majority of the daytime should be under control in Houston and points south and west, as capping (which helps inhibit thunderstorm development) will likely be in place much of the day. So at this point, we aren’t expecting anything too serious during the daytime. However, as you go north and east of Houston, a few more organized, stronger storms may get going this afternoon.

Severe weather risk is pretty minimal in Houston, but with weaker capping northeast of Houston, chances of some healthier thunderstorms goes up as you move in that direction. (Storm Prediction Center)

For that reason, the Storm Prediction Center has placed counties north and northeast of Houston in “Slight” (or level 2) risk for severe weather. The most volatile ingredients for severe weather today will again be in far northeast Texas or northern Louisiana. But we can’t rule out a few strong to severe storms northeast of a line from about The Woodlands through Port Arthur. We’ll keep tabs on this today in case anything changes.

Tonight

The cold front, well to our north today, will advance south into our area overnight tonight, probably well after midnight. One difference with this front versus the last couple we’ve had come through overnight: Whereas the last couple fronts timed in the 10 PM to 2 AM window, this one will likely be later, say, 2 to 6 AM-ish. So, you may be woken up later in slumber by a rumble of thunder.

Between today’s showers and storms and tonight’s front, rain amounts may be a bit variable across the region.

Total rainfall today through Saturday shouldn’t be too impressive, though a few spots could see a little more than shown here, mainly northeast of Houston. (NWS WPC/Weather Bell)

On average, I think rain amounts will be a few tenths to half an inch in most places. Some of us may get a little more (perhaps 1-2″ or so with some thunderstorms today). Some places south and west of Houston may only see a small amount of rain. We don’t have any serious flooding concerns from this system.

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Brief storms possible again Friday night in Houston

Good morning. Our weather remains one of a battle between cool fronts and the onshore flow, and as a result we’ll see intermittent periods of nice weather broken by the possibility of storms.

Thursday

It’s a bit chilly across the Houston area this morning, with most of the region having fallen into the 50s. However, winds are swinging back around to the southeast, and this will allow moisture levels to creep back up today. Although skies should remain partly sunny, some light, scattered showers may move into Houston from the southwest later this afternoon. Highs should remain pleasant, in the low 70s. Overnight temperatures tonight should be about 10 degrees warmer with the renewed onshore flow.

Highs Thursday will be seasonal for much of the southern United States. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

A warmer, muggier day with high temperatures probably reaching about 80 degrees. Rain chances, and later thunderstorm chances, will be on the rise during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front approaches the area. However, a fairly strong capping inversion should set up over the area, and this may limit any precipitation until after the front moves into the region.

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Pleasant and mostly dry in Houston before another cool front Friday night

Some severe thunderstorms rumbled through Houston during the overnight hours, bringing some scattered reports of hail and damaging winds (a private airplane hangar was damaged at Hobby Airport). While the light show was impressive, rain totals were modest, with most of the region getting 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rainfall. In the wake of Tuesday night’s front we’re left with gusty winds, reaching the low 30mph in some locations this morning.

Wednesday

Skies today will be clearing out, leaving us with lots of sunshine later today. Temperatures will hold steady at about 70 degrees, however, and winds will remain brisk out of the north. Skies tonight will be mostly clear, with temperatures generally in the 50s—cooler to the north of the city and warmer to the south.

Expect moderately chilly temperatures on Thursday morning. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

A nice day, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the 70s. As winds shift around to come out of the southeast, moisture levels will rise some, and we can’t entirely rule out of a few brief, scattered showers later in the day. For the most part, however, this should be a pretty nice day.

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Storms possible later this evening, weekend may be pretty nice

We’re definitely in the midst of spring storm season. After an active night last week, we have the potential for more storms this evening, and perhaps again this weekend. So it goes in spring, along the warming Gulf of Mexico coast.

Tuesday

We’ll see another warm, mostly cloudy day with highs reaching into the low 80s. Although there is the potential for some scattered showers across the region, the heavier storms are probably going to hold off until the late afternoon or evening hours. A cold front, and an associated area of disturbed weather should move into the Brazos Valley during the afternoon hours, and probably will move into Houston sometime after 7pm. The entire system should move off the coast by around midnight.

Rain accumulations for most of the city should average between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. The primary concern, therefore, is that some of these storms could be severe, with damaging winds or hail. If you’re out and about this evening, such as coming home from the Astros baseball game, this storm could catch you out. Take care.

Rainfall accumulations on Tuesday evening shouldn’t cause any significant problems. (NOAA)

Wednesday

Sunny and significantly cooler and drier in the wake of Tuesday night’s cold front. Highs in the low 70s, with a noticeable wind out of the north. Temperatures on Wednesday night should fall into the upper 40s for the northern half of Houston, while remaining in the 50s for areas closer to the coast.

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