Month: September 2018

Rains not over yet, but we can see a light at the end of the tunnel

As we’d hoped, the radar has generally been quieter this morning across the Houston area, with showers neither as intense or widespread as they’ve been over the previous two mornings. And while we’re not out of the woods in terms of heavy rain and street flooding potential, we can at least see a period of sunnier weather in the distance.

Thursday

The southern half of the Houston area remains under a flash flood watch through Thursday evening, and this is primarily because of already saturated grounds due to a very wet week for the coast. Generally, we don’t expect coastal areas to pick up more than an additional 0.5 to 2 inches of rain during the next 24 hours as moisture continues to stream inland. This should be manageable, but we’re definitely watching several bands of stronger showers just offshore that could move inland.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through the weekend. (Pivotal Weather)

Friday and Saturday

The oft-discussed Invest 95L—and there really has been a lot of sound and fury for a tropical system that never really has appeared all that threatening—will continue to move toward the Texas coast, and should come inland Friday. The threat from this storm will be heavy tropical rainfall, but as the system remains disorganized, it shouldn’t be that potent of a rainmaker. Some areas along the Coastal Bend may see upwards of 3 to 5 inches of rain over the next few days with some higher isolated totals, but in the Houston area I expect the coastal areas to hopefully see less than that, and inland areas perhaps 1 inch of rain through Saturday.

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Quick Wednesday afternoon weather update

After another wet morning along the coast, the heavier rains have mostly stayed offshore this afternoon. The big question now becomes: Will Thursday morning offer a repeat performance of Tuesday and Wednesday morning super soakers along the coast? We hope not, and we think not. But alas, we are not certain.

The area of the flash flood warning is shown in the hash-marked area. (National Weather Service)

The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for coastal areas that extends from midnight tonight through Thursday evening. The weather service expects an additional widespread 1 to 2 inches with isolated 4 inches of rainfall are possible across the watch area.

This seems about right, but for the most part, we don’t expect quite the punch we’ve seen the last two nights where areas such as Dickinson, League City, and Kemah have seen a total of eight inches. But given the moisture available in the atmosphere we can’t rule it out.

Also of note: We’re continuing to watch Invest 95L, which could become a tropical depression on Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico as it moves toward the southern Texas coast. However, we still don’t anticipate major effects for Houston at this time. That could change, of course. But at this point we’d sooner bet on a partly sunny Sunday than we would on a complete washout this weekend. We’ll be back with a full forecast early tomorrow.

Heavy rains continue along the coast; assessing tropical threats

Anniversary Awareness: Ten years ago today we were watching the approach of Hurricane Ike, whose winds and storm surge pushed into Galveston on Friday, Sept. 12. I recall this time vividly, as I tried to grab a few hours of sleep in a darkened room in the Houston Chronicle‘s former downtown newsroom. Next door, at the Lancaster Hotel, a window blew out in my family’s room. I was powerless to help. Similar dramas played out across the region as the storm made a final landfall at 2:10am CT on Saturday morning. At the time, Ike ranked as the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history, behind only Katrina. It has since been bumped down to sixth, supplanted by Harvey, Maria, Sandy, and Irma. Unfortunately, the Houston region has yet to heed the lessons of Ike and enact any kind of surge barrier that would protect communities along Galveston Bay, expensive infrastructure along the Houston Ship Channel, or Galveston Island. The region remains highly vulnerable to a major storm surge event. On a personal note, a lot of the lessons I learned while covering Ike have made this site what it is today.

This house, in Gilchrist, remains standing after Hurricane Ike. Strong building codes matter. (Wikimedia)

And now, the forecast. We’ll break this down into three parts: Rainfall potential for Wednesday and Thursday, Invest 95L and this weekend’s weather, and finally, a tropics update on the terribly threatening Hurricane Florence and, for now, a fading Tropical Storm Isaac.

Wednesday and Thursday

As anticipated, rain showers developed offshore early Wednesday morning and have begun moving inland into Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston counties. Although these storms are less intense and widespread that rains on Tuesday morning, they are nonetheless hitting some of the areas most affected by the earlier rains. Caution is urged on roadways in coastal counties and a Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 8:30 am CT. This pattern will likely more or less continue, with coastal areas picking up an additional 1-3 inches on Wednesday and Thursday, with higher isolated totals. Inland rainfall totals should, for the most part, be significantly less than this.

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Tuesday evening update on Houston rain & tropics

Good afternoon and evening. I wanted to offer a quick update on Houston’s rain situation, as well as Invest 95L.

Tonight through Thursday

The Flash Flood Watch that had been in effect for the region has been cancelled. We did see some significant rains southeast of Houston this morning.

We do expect more rain and thunderstorms to develop tonight, but the heaviest should primarily remain offshore. That said, watch for locally heavy downpours in spots and at times, especially southeast of Houston along the coast tonight and tomorrow. Some short-fused street flooding can’t be entirely ruled out. But we don’t expect widespread issues tonight or Wednesday. With storms offshore tomorrow morning, inland showers and storms will probably be a little sluggish out of the gate, but do expect at least a few downpours tomorrow around the region. Eric can narrow this down with a little more specificity in the morning.

We’ll see more scattered storms on Thursday, and we’ll pin that down for you a little better tomorrow.

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