Month: September 2018

One more day of widespread clouds & rain, Gordon stays to our east

After a wild Labor Day that saw Galveston and coastal communities see upwards of five to ten inches of rain or more, we’re starting with more rain down that way today. But we do have good news for those ready for a break.

Today

Radar this morning as of showed a narrow band of heavy rain pointed onshore across Galveston Island and the southwest end of the Bolivar Peninsula, now inland as of 5:50 AM to about League City. Additional moderate to heavy rain had prompted another Flash Flood Warning just outside of Port Arthur.

Radar as of 5:50 AM showed heavy rain southeast of Houston, just inland from Galveston, along with steady rain just west of Port Arthur. (GRLevel3)

Some of the rain near Port Arthur may try and come a bit west, so folks on the east side of I-45 could see a steady moderate to occasionally heavy rain for a time. Locally heavy rain will continue at times near Galveston, which could cause some relapse in street flooding again. A Flash Flood Watch is posted for the coastal counties through today.

Further inland, including most of Houston, we’ll see a smattering of showers and thunderstorms around the region this morning and afternoon. Look for gradual improvement later today. Clouds and showers will hold back temperatures once again. We only hit 78° officially on Labor Day, our coolest day since the Fourth of July, and only the second time we’ve failed to hit 80 degrees since late April. It feels like it’s been hot forever. Who’s ready for a cold front? We’re looking hard for one, but alas, we don’t see much chance of that happening over the next ten days or so at least.

Wednesday & Thursday

Both days look like a return to more typical late summer weather, with a daily shower and storm chance driven by the sea breeze off the Gulf and daytime heating, so mostly of the hit or miss variety. Any storms will be capable of heavy downpours of course, but coverage should be fairly average for this time of year; a bit less intense than we’ve seen the last couple days. Look for mid- or upper-80s where we see some storms on those days and upper-80s to low-90s in drier locations.

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Heavy rains wind down, Gordon intensifies in the Gulf

Starting close to home and working outward this afternoon: Heavy rain to the tune of 6-10″ or more along the immediate coast has caused flooding from Freeport through Galveston to High Island. As of early afternoon, High Island had seen over 11 inches of rain, Jamaica Beach had seen north of ten inches, and Galveston was nearing seven inches so far. This has created waterlogged scenes in Galveston today.

So what’s to come?

Radar as of 1:30 PM today shows heavy rain gradually diminishing in intensity along the coast and inland.

The heaviest rains from this morning have subsided. Periods of rain and a few isolated downpours will continue into the middle and late afternoon. (College of DuPage)

Expect rain to generally wind down here, though some isolated heavier downpours or thunderstorms will be possible into late afternoon. But those would be the exception rather than the rule. Continued residual street flooding is likely to continue in Galveston and generally along the coast.

Tonight

Another round of rain is possible, especially south and east of Houston, so the flooding threat, while perhaps not as great as today, will not quite trend to zero. There’s still a bit of uncertainty in how much rain falls and exactly where, but in general, another inch or two seems possible along the coast, with lesser amounts inland from tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

Over the next 24 hours, an additional few inches of rain will be possible along the coast, with lesser amounts inland. (NWS Houston)

Things do look to quiet down around here for the middle of the week, though rain chances don’t quite get to zero. More on that tomorrow.

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Reduced flooding concerns for Houston this week

Well, it’s Labor Day in Houston, and unfortunately some outdoor activities are likely to be a washout during the middle of the day. The good news, however, is that our overall concerns about the potential for heavy rainfall during the next seven days have lessened. So let’s discuss conditions today, and then later this week as Tropical Storm Gordon moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Labor Day rains

Houston, so far, has mostly been dry overnight. The heaviest rainfall overnight has come to the east of Houston, from the east side of Galveston Bay to Beaumont and Lake Charles, where there are several flood warnings. This is where the greatest risk will remain this morning, although some of the heavier showers are now pushing into coastal areas south of Houston, including Galveston, and up the Highway 146 corridor into Baytown. High resolution models suggest these showers will fill into more of the Houston area later this morning, and early afternoon, as a broad low-pressure system moves over the area.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for between sunrise Monday and sunrise Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

However, our overall concerns for flooding today remain fairly low in Houston, especially for areas away from the coast and Galveston Bay. Street flooding may be a problem beneath the heavier storms, but for the most part rains will be entirely manageable. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 7pm for Houston, but rain chances should fall off later this afternoon—if you’re planning a Labor Day cookout this evening I’d be reasonably confident in good weather—and during most of the overnight hours before scattered to widespread showers return Tuesday. This may bring an additional 1 inch or less of rainfall to the region.

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Latest on Labor Day rains, Tropical Storm nearing Gulf

Overall, not a whole lot has changed since this morning’s update. Even so, we wanted to provide the latest information we have. We’re still watching for the potential of heavy rainfall beginning late tonight, through most of Labor Day; and then the eventual movement of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Gordon into the Gulf of Mexico later this week. While things can change, at this point we don’t anticipate anything too extreme for southeast Texas. This isn’t Harvey. It isn’t Allison. Most likely it’s just some heavy, tropical rains that the region can handle. If our thinking changes, we will most certainly let you know.

Labor Day rainfall

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch from midnight tonight through 7pm Monday. Given the slow-moving nature of a low-pressure system moving from the northern Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, and through the region on Monday, we can probably expect widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches (more likely closer to the coast, and the eastern half of the region).

Sunday afternoon satellite image of low pressure moving into Texas. (NOAA)

For the most part, these rains should be the kinds that lead to street flooding in hard hit areas, but we don’t expect any significant or widespread creek and bayou flooding. I always hesitate to write that with these kinds of air masses, which can produce a lot of rain in a very short time, but as of now there is no strong signal for an extreme rainfall event for Houston.

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