Posted by Eric Berger at 6:56 AM
The first two weeks of August were incredibly hot and dry, but since then Houston has moved into a more typical summertime pattern where most days have produced at least a smattering of rain showers, with more widespread, heavier thunderstorms some days. However, in looking at a cumulative rain map over the last 10 days of this month, there are some areas that have stayed dry—including places like Spring, Katy, and Tomball.
Rainfall roulette over the last 10 days. (Matt Lanza)
If you’ve missed the rain train so far, you’ve got several more days of healthy rain chances ahead. We look to remain in a fairly wet pattern through the weekend, with perhaps Friday offering the best overall chance of showers this week.
Today should be similar to Tuesday, albeit with slightly less coverage. Overall, skies should be mostly sunny, with storms popping up around noon just inland from the coast and migrating into the interior of the region by around 6pm or so. They should end by or before sunset. Similar to Tuesday, some of these storms could be fairly intense, with short-lived, high rainfall rates that quickly drop an inch or so. Let’s go with a 30 percent chance of rain, with highs in the mid-90s.
Another day similar to Wednesday, with slightly better shower coverage as the Houston area begins to open up to Gulf moisture. Let’s call it 40 percent rain chances with highs in the mid-90s.
Posted by Eric Berger at 6:52 AM
Houston will remain in a more or less static weather pattern for most of the remainder of this week. Each day will see a healthy chance of showers, with a crescendo toward the weekend, but for now there don’t appear to be any significant concerns about strong storms or flooding. Temperatures will be hot, of course, but typically not of the 100-degree variety we sometimes see in August. In short, this is not a bad way to spend the last 10 days of a month that can either bring high pressure domes of doom, or serious tropical weather.
Low temperatures on Tuesday morning are sultry clear across the state. (Weather Bell)
Today should be similar to Monday, with a mixture of clouds and sunshine, and highs in the mid-90s for most of the area. Rain chances are probably about 40 percent for most of Houston, with showers pulsing up near the coast by late morning, and moving through the city during the afternoon hours. They should fade as the sun begins to set. Some storms may briefly bring rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, but most people will see far less than that.
Wednesday and Thursday
These have the look of typical summertime days, with highs in the low 90s along the coast, and upper 90s for inland areas. Shower development should occur along the sea breeze, which will migrate inland during the afternoon hours. Right now I would anticipate less coverage than on Tuesday, so let’s call it 30 percent rain chances on both days.
Posted by Eric Berger at 6:46 AM
So far, August has been mostly a hot and dry month. Average temperatures are running 3 to 4 degrees above “normal” levels, with most of the area at a rainfall deficit. The good news—and good is definitely a relative term for August—is that this pattern should moderate slightly for the last 10 days or so of the month. This means that, with one or two exceptions, we are probably finished with 100-degree days. And hopefully rain chances will be a little bit better.
Most of Houston should see the mid- to upper-90s on Monday. (Pivotal Weather)
Conditions will be muggy and partly sunny today, with high temperatures generally climbing into the mid- to upper-90s across the region. High-resolution models suggest that scattered, but locally strong thunderstorms should pop up today from around 2pm through sunset across the region. Chances may be best roughly along the Interstate 10 corridor and closer to the coast, but I don’t have too much confidence in locations. Overnight lows will remain warm, around 80 degrees for most of the metro area.
A similar day to Monday, albeit with perhaps slightly less shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Posted by Matt Lanza at 6:10 AM
Thursday broke the streak. We fell one degree short of 100° officially, after 7 straight days of 101°+ in Houston. We don’t think we will hit 100° again for a bit, though I suppose one could sneak in here at some point over the next few days under the right setup. Regardless of all that, it continues to look hot and unpleasant for the foreseeable future, but at least we can mention a chance of rain almost every day.
Radar this morning is already showing some showers and storms, mainly along the coast or east of I-45.
Radar as of 6 AM showed showers and storms mainly east of Houston, slowly drifting northward. (RadarScope)
The storms were slowly drifting to the north. These should gradually fade this morning, and we’ll expect sun and clouds with high temperatures aiming for the upper-90s once more. Air quality today will be fairly poor, so if you fall into “sensitive groups” on days with high ozone levels, you will want to take it easy and stay indoors when you can. A few additional showers are possible this afternoon with daytime heating, but like yesterday, consider yourself lucky if you see one.
Both Saturday and Sunday look pretty standard for what we normally expect in the back half of August. Look for a mix of sun and clouds on both days. Saturday will see isolated to scattered showers or storms in the afternoon. Sunday will probably see slightly fewer showers. Rain chances will be highest as you go to the east of Houston. So Baytown likely has higher odds of seeing a shower than Katy this weekend.
High temperatures will likely top off in the mid- to upper-90s, while morning lows will remain steamy at around 80 degrees.