Easter Sunday was a rather interesting weather day in Houston that illustrated a couple of different phenomena. The first part of the day was rather humid, with a strong line of storms that passed well to the north of Houston, eventually dragging a front into Houston. Temperatures just before the front passed were in the upper 70s, with dewpoints right behind in the low 70s, making for muggy weather indeed. Then the front pushed through, causing three things to happen.
Dewpoints fell and temperatures spiked on Sunday. (NOAA)
Winds surged out of the west, gusting well into the 30s for most of the area, and the 40s along the coast. This brought in a rapid influx of much drier air. Dewpoints plunged into the 40s. This drier air, in concert with the sun, helped temperatures spike into the low 90s for much of Houston—both Bush Intercontinental (92 degrees) and Hobby Airport (93 degrees) broke records. And then that same dry air allowed temperatures to fall into the 50s this morning. Now we’ll enjoy several days of splendid spring weather.
Monday
Although winds died down overnight, they will pick up again some today, although gusts are unlikely to rise much above 20 mph. We can otherwise expect sunny conditions on Monday with highs of around 70 degrees. It’s going to be quite nice! Lows Monday night will drop into the upper 40s for areas well inland, while remaining in the upper 50s along the coast.
A second front will push through later on Tuesday, and this should keep our dry air, mostly sunny skies, and cool air in place. Expect highs in the low 70s, and lows in the 50s—cooler inland and warmer near the coast. At this point, Wednesday morning may be the coolest of the week.
We just wanted to give a quick update today on the concerns regarding severe weather. We noted yesterday that there was still some uncertainty in details for today. The majority of the area experienced a really, really nice morning. As we march through the afternoon hours, showers or sprinkles are likely to begin developing. Per the National Weather Service and after looking at some near-term model data myself, it’s clear that the Houston area is in a “capped” environment this afternoon. We talk about the cap often, and basically that’s what helps Houston frequently avoid some of the more ballistic severe weather events that occur off to our north and west. So, assuming that the cap is likely to hold through the afternoon, we shouldn’t see much more than a few showers.
The exception to this could be north of I-10, farther from the Gulf and more likely to see the cap erode enough to allow for some heavier showers or storms late this afternoon or evening.
The risk for severe weather today and this evening is highest off to the north and west of most of the Houston metro area. (NOAA)
So, with all that in mind, you can see the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook here. The risk for severe weather generally will go up as you go north and west of the Houston metro area. The highest risk through this evening is probably along or northwest of a line between Crockett, College Station, and La Grange. That’s not to say we couldn’t see severe storms pop before midnight farther south and east; it just doesn’t seem super likely right now. So, keep tuned into the weather, but we aren’t real worried right now.
Overnight
Things do change a bit overnight. We enter into a slightly better and more supportive environment for thunderstorms to develop. But even then, I am still seeing some evidence of “capping” in the models over Houston. I think the general rule of thumb will be that we’ll see scattered showers and storms overnight. Most should be under control and many of us won’t see much of anything. As you go north and west of Houston, the chance that one or two of those storms could become severe increases. I would really watch the area west of San Antonio toward Del Rio closely tonight for potential of some pretty significant storms capable of producing large hail or tornadoes during the late evening and early overnight hours.
Those storms west of San Antonio are likely to congeal into a line of storms and move east along and north of I-10 overnight, arriving in the Houston area sometime around or after sunrise tomorrow morning. The main concern as those pass would be strong, gusty winds, but the chance of an embedded tornado is not zero. Again, the rule will be that the farther north you go, the more likely you see stronger storms. Some areas south of Houston may not even see much of anything overnight and Sunday morning. But the time we should be paying closest attention is probably from 5 or 6 AM through 9 AM or so.
Easter Sunday
Once the showers pass off to our east on Sunday morning, we should see rapid clearing of skies by midday. Winds are going to begin to crank out of the west at 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts, especially over the bays and near the coast. Temperatures will surge into the middle or upper-80s as humidity plummets. I wouldn’t rule out 90° tomorrow either for some folks. A windy, hot Easter afternoon.
Sunday afternoon will be windy and hot with plummeting humidity. A few locations could even be a little hotter than this Sunday afternoon. (Pivotal Weather)
The cold air arrives Sunday night, and by Monday morning we’ll be back in the 50s, struggling to get to 70 degrees Monday afternoon. More on that Monday.
Southeast severe weather
A quick PSA from us: While we aren’t expecting a lot of significant severe weather in our area tomorrow morning, there is a decent chance that this will be a very serious severe weather outbreak to our east. From northern Louisiana through much of Mississippi and Alabama into Georgia, and possibly Tennessee and the Carolinas, the potential exists for a significant tornado or severe weather outbreak tomorrow and tomorrow night into Monday morning.
A moderate risk for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes is in place from northern Louisiana across the Southeast for Easter Sunday. (NOAA)
A moderate risk (4 out of 5) is in place for tomorrow’s activity across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This could be upgraded to a high risk tomorrow if confidence increases in a potential tornado outbreak. If you have friends or relatives living east of here in any highlighted yellow, orange, or red area on the map above, please make sure they’re following the weather situation in their local area.
Last night was quite active in parts of the area. In other parts of the area? Yeah, it felt like a flop.
Rainfall amounts were widely variable across the region, with some places seeing minor amounts of rain and others seeing north of 2″. (Harris County Flood Control)
Rain totals were quite erratic. Southern areas saw low amounts. Northern areas saw variable amounts. A gage just east of IAH Airport between Will Clayton Parkway and the Beltway along Garners Bayou nearly received 3″ of rain. But that was very much the exception yesterday. Rain totals elsewhere were less than a quarter inch in many places like Tomball, Cypress, Katy, and Sugar Land. The Woodlands saw a pretty good storm, but even there, it moved fast enough that rain totals were generally under an inch.
Severe weather was not really an issue in the Houston area either. Most reports yesterday came from the Brazos Valley and back west toward Austin and even those were few.
Anyway, with that in the rear-view mirror, we can start talking about the next round.
Today
First off, today looks quiet. We will have clouds for the bulk of the day, but it will feel refreshing after yesterday’s record heat (91° at Hobby was a new record, 91° at Bush fell a degree short). Look for highs mostly in the 70s today. It will also be a good bit breezy at times with winds out of the east or northeast around 15 mph with higher gusts, especially over the bays and Gulf.
Saturday through Sunday morning
For Saturday, morning, lows will be in the low-60s or even upper-50s, but temperatures will rebound into the middle 70s through the day. An approaching warm front will send humidity up through the day as well.
The biggest question on Saturday revolves around rain and thunderstorms. Let’s work through this in order of likely outcomes. Scattered showers are likely Saturday morning and afternoon. Many of us may not see rain, but some of us will. Models differ in opinion on where rain will arrive, with a couple suggesting coastal areas and Houston will see a good deal of showers tomorrow morning. Others keep those areas mainly dry and focus development off to the north and west of Houston. We will call it scattered showers and go from there. A thunderstorm is also a good possibility too. For the most part, we do not expect significant severe weather Saturday morning or afternoon in Houston.
Severe weather on Saturday afternoon will probably begin in Hill Country or west of San Antonio toward Del Rio and the Rio Grande Valley.
Saturday’s severe weather outlook suggests storms will develop mostly in Hill Country during the afternoon and begin to move east Saturday evening. (NOAA)
Heading into Saturday night, with a warm front in the neighborhood and ample moisture in place with a strong disturbance approaching, that’s typically a recipe for thunderstorms to develop. There are still a lot of questions as to exactly how Saturday night is going to play out. There should be strong to severe thunderstorms in Central Texas moving into East Texas, especially north of I-10. We could see additional development of storms ahead of that off the Gulf. At this time, that looks more concerning east of the Houston area, more into Louisiana. But with a good bit of uncertainty still in play and a Sunday severe weather outlook that is still pretty aggressive nearby, I don’t want to rule anything out at this point.
Easter Sunday severe weather outlook shows risk increasing to the east of Houston, whereas most of our weather will be out of here by late morning. (NOAA)
Bottom line on Saturday night/Sunday early morning: Expect showers and potential for some thunderstorms. Some severe weather is possible, but odds may be highest north and east of Downtown Houston. Eric or myself will keep you posted this weekend if things get more serious.
There will be a couple boundaries pushing through Houston on Sunday. The boundary with storms should push out, ending the rain by 10-11 AM or so. The first cold front will follow around 12-2 PM or so. That will flip winds out of the west, and they should increase as well back to the 15 to 20 mph range, with higher gusts.
Good morning. Confidence is increasing in the potential for severe weather this afternoon and evening in Houston. The primary threats from this will be strong thunderstorms, and the potential for large hail and downbursts. The chances for hail and damaging winds are better for the western half of the metro area.
Thursday
Skies are mostly cloudy this morning, with temperatures in the 70s. Clouds will remain as highs work their way into the upper 80s this afternoon. Storms are likely to get organized off to the west and north of Houston late this afternoon, and shift into the metro area from about 5pm to 10pm tonight. While most of the region probably will get around 1 inch of rain, or less, these storms have the potential to pretty quickly drop 3 or more inches in some locations. Therefore it is possible we will see some brief street flooding later this evening. The front should exit off the coast, along with the heavier rainfall, by or before midnight.
Severe weather outlook for Thursday and Thursday night. (NOAA)
Friday
A few light showers may be possible Friday morning before sunrise, but for the most part we can probably expect mostly cloudy skies transitioning to some sunshine during the afternoon hours. With forecast highs in the mid-70s and lower humidity, this could turn into a fairly nice spring-like day. Which is good, because Saturday probably won’t be so nice.
