Welcome to mid-August. We’ve passed the first couple of months of this hurricane season in the Houston area without too much heartburn. The good news today is that we don’t have much specific on our radar that is of concern for the Gulf. The bad news is that we are anticipating that by late August there will be multiple areas to watch.
Tropical outlook in a sentence
A disturbance that may develop in the Atlantic is not a concern for us at this time, however we see signs on models that multiple tropical waves will be worth monitoring heading into late August.
Invest 95L
The disturbance in the Atlantic that is the most pressing at the moment is tagged as Invest 95L. It’s pretty far out there still, about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, or a little short of halfway to the Caribbean.
As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center says it has a 90 percent chance of developing into a tropical system over the next two to five days. On satellite today, 95L has a decent area of thunderstorms associated with it, but it seems to lack any kind of organization at this point.
The window for Invest 95L to develop is fairly narrow. We expect whatever it becomes to run into some serious wind shear as it moves toward the Caribbean. In addition, the system should be steered west around high pressure in the Atlantic, with a weakness in that ridge allowing it to gradually gain some latitude. We feel that will be enough to either allow for an escape out to sea or to dissipate the system well before it gets to the U.S., and we probably wouldn’t register this as something you need to worry about for the moment.