Month: September 2022

The updated drought monitor report was released yesterday, covering us through this past Tuesday, and it had good news for our area as drought conditions have been significantly ameliorated.

We have gone from 74 percent drought coverage a week ago to 35 percent this week. Most of the area is now drought-free. Of course, it’s not completely gone, and with primarily dry weather expected for another week or more, it stands to reason that we could slip back into a worsening drought situation again this autumn. But for now, we’re doing much, much better. The same is true for much of Texas.

Friday & weekend

The next three days are all going to be variations on the same thing: It will be mainly sunny. You probably will not get rain, but there is at least a slight chance each day that someone will. It will be hot but not extremely so. I do think the next few mornings and evening will be moderately pleasant, much like we’ve seen at times over the last week or so, but the middle of each day should be plenty hot, with highs generally 90 or better away from the coast and mid-90s well inland.

All in all, if you have plans this weekend, you should be in pretty good shape.

Monday through Wednesday

Will it or won’t it? That’s the big question. We have been discussing the chances that a faux fall cold front could push through Sunday night or early next week and provide us with a taste of autumn and somewhat drier air. Models are still roughly 50/50 on whether or not it gets here. This won’t have much moisture or much impact beyond primarily determining whether we see nighttime lows in the 60s over much of the area or continued 70s.

So for now, look for mainly sunshine Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of a shower or storm. Daytime highs should be in the 90s and nighttime lows generally still in the 70s, but risk for a morning of 60s in there, mainly north of I-10. We will see where we stand on Monday.

Mid to late next week

Whether or not an actual front gets here is somewhat inconsequential to the rest of the forecast next week. Look for sun, clouds, building warm to hot temps again, and more late summer humidity. Rain chances remain on the low-end of the scale for most of the rest of next week.

Tropics

The good news is that the Gulf continues to be free and clear of any tropical activity over the next week or so. Everything is in the Atlantic.

All the systems worth watching in the Atlantic seem likely to stay there for their life cycles, which is surely good news for us. We’re not to the finish line yet, so I’m not quite ready to exhale, but we’re getting closer. For those that follow me on social media, the H-E-B cocoa granola supply remains full. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

Good morning. The showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening represented the last gasp of our region’s wet pattern, and we are now moving into a drier period. The region has also passed the worst of summer—what I call “high summer”—and we’re now into “late summer.” This means temperatures will still be warm to hot, but not excruciatingly so, and we can start to look for a few fronts to pass through. The first such front is in the cards for early next week, but unfortunately it is not a particularly strong one.

Thursday

An upper-level low pressure system that helped drive Wednesday’s rainfall has shifted east, so while we will still see a few showers and thunderstorms later today they should be much more scattered in nature. Rain chances will be best, perhaps 20 to 30 percent, along and south of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures of around 90 degrees, plus or minus a degree or two. Winds will be light out of the north, at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees north of Houston, with temperatures warming the closer one gets to the coast.

Friday

At this point Friday looks a lot like Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances probably fall below 20 percent this weekend, so look for mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low 90s on both days. If you have outdoor activities planned, you should be good to go. We’re expecting a weak front the push towards the area later on Sunday, and this boundary will probably move through overnight. At this point it looks like a dry frontal passage, but we’re not 100 percent sure of that.

Next week

Don’t expect a significant cool down behind the front. It’s just not strong enough. However, the front should bring a modicum of drier air, helping to bring nighttime temperatures down a few degrees, especially for inland areas. This slightly drier air will be most noticeable during evenings and mornings. Highs look to remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of next week, with mostly sunny skies. Some rain chances may start to creep back into the forecast toward the weekend—or not.

Tropics

I hate to sound like a broken record, but in this case it’s a good thing. While there are two active storms in the Atlantic, neither is a significant threat to landmasses as Hurricane Earl is now expected to pass to the east of Bermuda. Looking across the deep tropics, and the storm-forming region near the coast of Africa, I don’t see anything that is likely to threaten the Gulf of Mexico. Probably our biggest threat, therefore, is a storm forming locally, in the northern Gulf of Mexico from the remains of a front. But again, there’s just no support right now for such a possibility in models. Things just look good, y’all.

After a very dry spring and start to summer, August brought beneficial rains to the entire region. Parts of the Houston metro area, particularly in Brazoria and Galveston counties, remain in a moderate drought as of this writing, but we have come a long way over the last 30 days. This is especially true as August is typically our hottest and potentially driest month, so we just got through the worst time of year for drought. If you’re wondering how your area stacks up, the map below shows “percent of normal” rainfall for the 30 days preceding September 6. Pretty much the entire western half of the metro area received 200 percent or more of normal rainfall, with most of the eastern half recording 125 to 200 percent.

All good things must come to an end, however, and after today the next two weeks look fairly dry. This does not necessarily signal that we’re going to enter into a prolonged dry spell, but it does mean the frequent rainfall we’ve seen in recent weeks should now subside.

Wednesday

Houston will have another shot at rainfall today, however. I’d peg chances at about 40 percent as an upper-atmospheric disturbance helps generate lift. Look for showers to start out up north later today and then drop down toward the metro area. None of these storms look severe, but you could see a briefly heavy shower. Rain chances fall back this evening. Otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

These days should see lower rain chances as the disturbance moves away from the area. Call it a 20 percent chance for each day, with mostly sunny skies. We’ll also see winds veer to come more out of the east-northeast, and this should moderate temperatures slightly so that we see highs of around 90 degrees. Overnight lows should drop into the low 70s for Houston, with cooler conditions further inland, and mid- to upper-70s near the coast. This won’t be great, but it won’t be terrible either.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with sunny skies and about a 20 percent chance of daily showers. Highs will be in the low 90s, with nights generally in the 70s.

Next week

We’re still looking at the potential for a front to make it through early next week, and at this point I think it’s likely that something will push into Houston and off the coast on Monday. Please set your expectations accordingly, as this front is probably not going to bring significantly cooler air. But for a day or two we may see some drier air, which should make mornings and evenings feel somewhat—dare I say it?—kind of almost pleasant? Look for highs of 90 degrees for most of next week with low rain chances.

Tropics

There’s a lot going on right now, but over at least the next week or so there is very little of concern for the United States. This is an amazing place to be as we approach the absolute peak of hurricane season on September 10.

It was the best of times: The start of September has continued the trend of August, with slightly cooler than normal weather for the Houston metro area. Plenty of rain, which has fallen without provoking widespread flooding, has largely extinguished the severe drought conditions that had started to encircle our area this summer. And with only about three or four weeks left in the heart of hurricane season for Texas, we still don’t see any real threats in the near future.

It was the worst of times: Fall is so close in September you can taste it, but the painful reality is that summer just isn’t over yet. Houston has a chance to see a decent cold front next week—more on that below—but fall remains over the horizon. We’ve got at least another month during which 90-degree days will be more common than not. The air has also been rather humid of late, and a distinct lack of a breeze has provided little relief from temperatures or the swarming mosquitoes.

The next line of Charles Dickens’ fine novel A Tale of Two Cities is, “it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” As always, we’re aiming more for wisdom than foolishness on Space City Weather. You can be the judge.

Tuesday

Today should bring a continuation of what we saw over the second half of Labor Day Weekend. This means that shower activity will be largely confined to the coastal areas of the region, with the possibility for a few storms to migrate inland to about Interstate 10 this afternoon. For areas further inland, any shower activity will be pretty isolated. Accordingly we should see highs in the upper 80s for coastal areas, and lows in the lower 90s for most of the rest of Houston. Winds will be light, out of the southeast, at about 5 mph. So far this month the average wind speed in Houston has been less than 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Overall there is not too much to report, weather-wise, for the remainder of the week. Wednesday will probably bring the best chance of rain to the region, with coverage of about 40 percent of the area, followed by lesser rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Highs will hover around 90 degrees, or slightly above this week, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the mid-70s for most.

Saturday and Sunday

This rather sedate pattern should persist into the weekend, which probably means highs of around 90 degrees, fairly sunny skies, and rain chances of perhaps 10 to 30 percent for both days. So if you’re planning any outdoor activities you can have reasonable confidence.

Next week

Will it or won’t it? That’s the question when it comes to a potential cool front around one week from today. There is a lot of support for a decent front—think lows in the 60s, with drier air—around September 13 in the ensembles of the European model. However there is almost no signal for this front in the North American GFS model. Looking at the overall pattern, I think it supports the idea that we could see a front make it down to Houston next week, but it is no slam dunk. This forecast should become clearer in the next day or two. Should the front make it, the effect will be fairly short lived, as one would expect in mid-September.

Tropics

There’s a lot going out there, and soon-to-be Hurricane Earl is a threat to Bermuda later this week. But none of these systems appear to pose any threat to the United States or Caribbean Islands. Moreover there is nothing in the models to suggest that will change soon. Here in Texas, we probably are three or four weeks away from being in the clear when it comes to hurricanes, so fingers crossed!