Eric Berger

Good morning. I don’t want to provide false hope to anyone, but the reality of the matter is that by Sunday, conditions for our region will start to change and favor at least the possibility of some rain showers across the metro area. We’re also looking at temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s, rather than really crazy temperatures of 105 degrees or above. So, as we move into September, we probably should embrace the small victories.

Thursday

For now, there won’t be much change. After a weak front moved into the region earlier this week we’ve been seeing some drier air and it’s made for some decently nice evenings and mornings, with lower humidity and slightly lower temperatures. Daytimes remain really hot, but this is partly because dry air warms more quickly. We’ve been seeing some afternoon humidities in the 20 percents, and that should continue. Look for highs today to again be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with low humidity. Overnight lows should drop into the 70s, with light northeasterly winds. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances nil.

Friday

Another day a lot like Thursday. Humidity levels will be a bit higher, but not much. So for Houston, in summer, it will still feel pretty dry.

Saturday

This will be a bit of a transition day, with mostly sunny skies and our formerly northerly wind shifting to come from the east. This will help start to raise humidity levels. Coastal areas may see about a 20 percent chance of rain, but for most of us it’s just going to be hot and mostly sunny, with highs of around 100 degrees.

Sunday and Monday

It’s Labor Day weekend, so the majority of people reading this will have Monday off from work as well. (Don’t worry, we’ll still have a report for you on Monday). By Sunday we should see high pressure start to retreat well to the north, and this will open up our region to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the potential for rain showers on Sunday and Monday. I’ll put chances for both days at about 60 percent for areas along and southeast of Interstate 69/Highway 59; and 40 to 50 percent for areas further inland. In terms of accumulations, we’re probably looking at a few tenths of an inch, give or take. But I would say that is far from set in stone. When it’s not raining, and it certainly won’t be most of the time, we can expect mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the upper-90s.

Next week

Rain chances look to hold on through Wednesday, after which we may return to a mostly sunny pattern, with days in the upper 90s to about 100 degrees. There are still no indications of the season’s first real cold front, but it’s probably too early to have an expectation of one.

Tropics

After ravaging the Big Bend area of Florida, as well as Georgia and parts of the Carolinas, Tropical Storm Idalia is moving into the Atlantic Ocean and away from the United States. Beyond that there is a lot of noise in the Atlantic Ocean, but nothing that really need concern us in Texas, or indeed, the rest of the United States. Full coverage of all of this can be found on The Eyewall.

Good morning. Temperatures have reached the 60s for some inland locations, with much of the rest of Houston in the low- to mid-70s. With lower dew points it feels, dare I say, almost sort of pleasant outside? Thanks to a front that pushed offshore earlier this week we’ll continue to see drier air through about Friday morning. But because dry air warms quickly, we’re still going to see hot days, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Evenings will cool off more quickly, however.

Due to the lower humidity, and somewhat breezy conditions, a “red flag” warning is in effect for pretty much the entire region. This combination of winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures will create the potential for explosive fire growth. Please avoid all outside burning. Do not toss lit cigarette butts outside. Report wildfires to the nearest fire department or law enforcement office.

Wednesday

High temperatures today will reach about 100 degrees for much of the metro area, but with dew points this afternoon dropping into the 50s, it genuinely will be a fairly dry heat. Close your eyes, and you’ll be able to pretend you’re in Arizona. Skies will be sunny. Winds will be out of the northeast, mostly, today at 10 mph with higher gusts to about 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night should again drop into the 70s for much of the area.

Thursday and Friday

These days will also see a fair bit of drier air, although dew points will slowly be coming back up. Skies will be sunny, with highs of about 100 degrees. Again, mornings and nights should be fairly pleasant, at least for this time of year.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see more mostly sunny skies, and highs of around 100 degrees. Humidity, alas, will be back. However, along with it we’ll see some decent rain chances. Coastal areas probably have about a 30 percent chance of a shower on Saturday, and most of the region that much of a shot on Sunday.

Labor Day and beyond

Rain chances likely peak on Labor Day, with perhaps a 40 or 50 percent chance of seeing a passing shower. These are not, for the most part, likely to be drenching and long-lasting rains. But any showers are welcome, and they’ll also cool the air. Look for highs in the upper 90s on the holiday.

Most of next week should see continued highs in the vicinity of the upper 90s, with decent rain chances on the order of 30 percent daily, or so. High pressure will be far enough to our west that some sea breeze storms will be possible. There are still no signs of truly widespread rain, which is needed to break the region’s drought, alas.

Tropics

Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, Hurricane Idalia has blown up into a Category 4 storm overnight. Idalia is about to make landfall in Taylor County, FL, with catastrophic storm surge in the Big Bend and wind, tide, and rain impacts spreading north into Georgia and the Carolinas later. We will have full and ongoing coverage of the storm today on The Eyewall. Beyond Idalia there are no areas of concern in the tropics, as far as impacts to the United States and Caribbean Islands are concerned.

Today is August 29. There are just three days left in the month that I consider to be the worst of the year in Houston, weatherwise. August is consistently the hottest, most humid, and often the month with the worst drought conditions of the year in our region. That has unquestionably been the case this month, with record heat and, for most of the area, very little rainfall. And now it’s almost over. Good riddance.

Matt and I have a friendly debate about whether August or September is the worst month in Houston. His point is that, in the rest of the country, fall starts settling in in September, whereas in Houston we often see some of the warmest weeks of the year in September. While I understand Matt’s point, he is entirely wrong. At least in September we have the hope of seeing a bonafide cold front. Typically we see our first real front during the third or fourth week of the month. Hope may be a dangerous thing, but at least I have it in September.

A cold front, by the way, is moving through the region today. Since it is August, however, this is an August front. Which is to say we’re going to see some drier air and (very) slightly cooler weather. This is not unwelcome, but it is not a front that will make you say, “ahhhh” either. Looking into the medium-term, there is no sign of a stronger front in the next 10 to 14 days, but rest assured it is coming. Probably within the next few weeks. We’re getting there, friends.

Tuesday

Thanks to the aforementioned front, high temperatures today will only top out in the mid- to upper-90s. With dew points dropping into the 60s, or even 50s further inland, this air will feel somewhat comfortable this afternoon for all areas but the immediate coast. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly sunny, with a northerly wind at 10 to 15 mph. Rain chances are effectively zero percent. Lows tonight will drop into the mid- to upper-70s for much of the area. The bottom line is that this evening should feel a bit more pleasant outside, especially as the Sun goes down.

Wednesday

Dew points will bottom out on Wednesday. So although highs will push the upper 90s to 100 degrees, the air will again feel fairly comfortable during the daytime. Lows will drop into the 70s on Wednesday night, and a few areas far from the coast may even briefly touch the upper 60s. Enjoy this as a promise of what’s to come. The only downside is that we really, really need some rain, and none of that is in the cards before the weekend with the drier air.

Thursday and Friday

These will be days a lot like Wednesday, but we’re going to see dewpoints start to creep back up, so you’ll feel the humidity a little bit more each day. By Friday evening, I’m afraid, the front should be long gone.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs this weekend should be in the mid- to upper-90s with mostly sunny skies. Some inland areas will probably push 100 degrees. As moisture levels rise, we could see some rain showers kick up along the sea breeze during the afternoon or early evening hours, especially on Sunday. Rain chances are probably on the order of 20 to 40 percent each day, at least at this stage. Expect some refinement as we get closer to the weekend.

Next week

This pattern looks to more or less hold next week, with highs in the upper 90s for the most part, with low- to decent rain chances. See, September is already better than the 109-degree temperatures we were experiencing in August.

Tropics

There’s likely to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico later today, Idalia. This storm presents a significant threat to the Gulf coast of Florida, particularly the Big Bend area of the state. We have full coverage of this storm, and the rest of the Atlantic tropics, on The Eyewall.

Maybe. The very worst of it is, at least.

But first, let’s recap the story of this summer so far. From mid-June onward, Houston has recorded some of the very hottest temperatures on record, with July ranking as the city second warmest July (behind only July 2022), and this August on pace to be the hottest August in 150 years of records. For example this month, on Thursday and again on Sunday, Houston matched its hottest temperature of all time, 109 degrees. It has been non-stop brutal.

I am not going to sit here and predict that we’re done with 100-degree days. But I do feel reasonably confident that we’re done with the absolutely scorching days of 105-degree plus temperatures that we’ve experienced of late. Houston will now return to a somewhat more “normal” summer in terms of temperatures. Still quite hot, but probably not extremely hot.

Monday

A very weak front has moved down into the region and more or less stalled along the coast, and it should eventually bring some drier air behind it. Skies today will be partly sunny for much of the region, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. There will be a decent chance of showers later today for areas along and south of Interstate 10, perhaps 40 percent, but don’t expect accumulations over more than a tenth of an inch of rain, or two. Chances further inland are probably less than 20 percent.

Tuesday

As the front pushes all the way off the coast, this should help to limit high temperatures in the upper 90s. Skies will be mostly sunny with light northerly winds. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain for coastal areas, and virtually no chance further inland. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the 70s in Houston, with some readings in the upper 60s possible for far inland areas. This is a small promise of what’s to come (hopefully) in a few weeks with the season’s first real front.

Wednesday

This should be the driest day, in terms of low humidity. Still, with clear skies and drier air, we can expect high temperatures near 100 degrees for much of the area. The good news is that evening temperatures will cool off more quickly with the drier air.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll start to see humidity levels coming back up some, but these days still shouldn’t be oppressively humid. Look for highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees, with sunny skies and no chance of rainfall.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks hot and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Some rain chances will return to the forecast as air moisture levels rise, and we could see the sea breeze spark some activity. For now, call it a 20 percent chance of rainfall each day.

Next week

Next week should bring more of the same weather, with highs most likely in the upper 90s (cannot rule out some 100 degree days) and rain chances on the order of 20 to 30 percent as the sea breeze kicks up. The bottom line, I think, is that extreme summer is going away for a while, to be replaced by a-bit-hotter-than-normal summer. I think that’s OK after what we’ve been through?

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics are sizzling right now with a major hurricane in Franklin, and Tropical Storm Idalia. The latter is the bigger concern, as Idalia will menace Florida as potentially a major hurricane later this week. We’ll have full coverage, as usual, on The Eyewall website.