Eric Berger

I hope everyone is having a great weekend. After the widespread showers and thunderstorms the region experienced on Friday afternoon, we just wanted to provide a quick update for the rest of the weekend, and early next week.

The overall pattern remains more or less in place today, with a stationary boundary and a moist atmosphere capable of supporting rain storms. Conditions should remain fairly calm this morning, but by noon we should start to see the development of showers to the west of the Houston metro area, and these will gradually move eastward. The most likely time for showers and at least a few thunderstorms will be this afternoon and early evening. The western half of Houston is more likely to see showers than the eastern half; call it a 50 percent chance west of downtown, and a 30 percent chance to the east. Highs today will top out at about 90 degrees, give or take, with partly sunny skies.

By Sunday we should see the influx of drier air, which should shut down rain chances. Plan outdoor activities with confidence with daytime highs in the low 90s and mostly sunny skies.

As the drier air moves in, the city will see some slightly cooler mornings on Monday and Tuesday, with some far inland areas perhaps briefly dropping into the upper 60s. It’s not fall, but we’re not that far away from fall now. Highs for most of next week will probably slot somewhere in to the low 90s.

Good afternoon. We’re jumping in to say that yes, that potential for heavy rainfall we’ve been talking about was in fact real. And that it is happening right now. Essentially we have seen the collision of two atmospheric boundaries over the metro area this afternoon, and it has combined with daytime heating to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.

This rainfall is very much welcome, and helping to put a dent in our extreme drought conditions. But it has also come at an inconvenient time, with the Friday evening rush hour upon us, and the prospect of some high water in streets. While we do not anticipate significant flooding concerns, please do take some extra time and caution on the roadways this evening.

I do think that the slow movement of these storms to the southeast should continue, with the bulk of the heavy rainfall likely moving offshore by around sunset, if not before. After that we expect a fairly quiet period overnight and during the first half of the day on Saturday. However, it’s possible that we will see another round of storms on Saturday afternoon. We’ll have an update for you on Saturday morning with the latest on what to expect this weekend.

Good morning. As anticipated, much of the area on Wednesday along and south of Interstate 10 recorded rainfall. Today, widespread showers will extend across most of the rest of the region as an atmospheric disturbance moves in from the west. This will provide lift for the very moist air at the surface, and should lead to some healthy showers and thunderstorms.

We’ll see some additional rain chances on Friday and Saturday, but all indications are that today will probably be the main event. I would expect that most (but not all) of the area will pick up 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall today, with lesser accumulations possible on Friday and Saturday. Although a few intense downpours may briefly produce street flooding, these rains will, by and large, be very much welcome after our summer of heat and drought.

Thursday

Overall rain chances will be about 80 percent today given the favorable environment. Based upon the latest modeling I expect showers and thunderstorms to start developing by mid- to late-morning, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon hours. With mostly cloudy skies and rain cooled air, much of the region probably will record highs today in the mid- to upper-80s. Rain chances will slacken some overnight, but additional showers are possible.

Friday and Saturday

As of this point, both Friday and Saturday look to have similar weather conditions. We can expect partly cloudy skies and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain both days. In terms of accumulations, both days may see rain totals measured in tenths of an inch, with a few higher isolated totals. Rain chances will persist into the evening and overnight hours. Both days should see highs of around 90 degrees.

Sunday

It now looks like a lesser chance of rain will persist into Sunday, probably something like 30 percent. Skies will be mostly sunny otherwise, with highs of around 90 degrees or a bit higher. Sometime on Sunday a weak front will push offshore, ushering in some slightly drier air into the region. This will effectively end rain chances, and should allow lows on Sunday night to drop into the low 70s for most of the area.

Next week

The slightly drier air should hang around for Monday and Tuesday, leading to some decently pleasant mornings and evenings. Highs will likely top out in the vicinity of the low 90s for most of next week, perhaps reaching the mid-90s toward week’s end. As the humidity returns in full force by around midweek, we should start to see the return of a few clouds and rain chances of perhaps 20 percent each day. This is about how mid-September should feel as we await the true onset of fall in the form of a strong-ish cold front. (For which there is nothing in sight, I’m afraid).

Good morning. For the upcoming period when we expect Houston to see better rain chances, Wednesday afternoon through Saturday, we’re now within the forecast range of high resolution models. This is important, because these models are better able to resolve the convective processes that produce rainfall. Typically, therefore, they tend to provide us with better insight into the timing, duration, and extent of rainfall.

If you recall, in our earlier posts this week, we spoke about accumulations of 0.5 to to 1 inch of rain, but based upon the latest modeling it now appears likely that many locations will receive more than this. Generally, that should be an excellent thing, because so much of the region remains in an exceptional or extreme drought.

So how much rainfall are we talking about? Well, it’s still too early to have great confidence, because our best high resolution models are still only looking out to Friday, not all the way through the high-rainfall chance period. But based upon the latest data, the current expectation is that much of the area will receive 1.5 to 3.0 inches through Saturday.

All of this is being driven by the absence of high pressure, and a weak front drifting toward the area that will help perturb the atmosphere. Our confidence in some of the fine details remains uncertain, but overall the pattern is supportive of widespread, on-and-off rainfall. We cannot rule out some flooding, but conditions are not optimal for very heavy, sustained rainfall, so I don’t expect significant issues on area roadways.

Wednesday

Today should be the last day that the region sees high temperatures in the mid-90s for a little while. Expect highs, generally, in the range of 93 to 97 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Rain chances are low today before the late afternoon and evening hours, at which point the favored locations will be between Interstate 10 and the coast. Rain chances will persist into the overnight hours, albeit with lesser coverage. Winds will be light, generally from the northwest. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

It still appears that these days will offer the best rain chance for the entire metro area, likely around 70 percent. Skies on both days should be partly to mostly cloudy, and this should help to limit highs to around 90 to 92 degrees. Both days should see widespread, intermittent showers. Winds will be light, from the northeast. Rain chances will be less overnight, but still non-zero.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend will see a continued chance of rain, with highs again in the low 90s. However, by Sunday morning we should start to see the influence of a weak front that will bring drier air into the region and largely end our rain chances. Highs on Sunday will probably be in the low 90s, with overnight lows dropping pleasantly into the low 70s.

Next week

With the influx of drier air, we’re likely to see highs in the mid-90s on Monday and Tuesday. However, humidity will be slightly lower, with nights a bit cooler. The front’s influence will dissipate pretty quickly, however. Therefore, most of next week probably will see highs in the low- to mid-90s, with some slight rain chances maybe returning by Wednesday or Thursday. Still no sign of a strong fall cool front yet, I’m afraid. We’re still at least 10 days out from that.

Tropics

The good news is that the Gulf of Mexico is completely quiet, and likely to remain so for at least the next week or 10 days. Wind shear is really ripping out there, and that’s lovely to see in September, especially with sea surface temperatures so warm. Hurricane Lee, however, is increasingly a concern for New England and Nova Scotia. We’ll continue to have full details on Lee, and all the rest of the Atlantic basin, on our sister site The Eyewall.