Eric Berger

Good morning. For the foreseeable future, Houston’s forecast remains one of very hot weather. The only real watch item of note is rain chances this weekend, particularly on Sunday and into Monday. Unfortunately, the models have trended a bit drier so my expectations of a good, solid soaking are not high. Especially if you live west of Interstate 45.

Wednesday

With high pressure solidly in place, we can expect another day of widespread temperatures of about 100 degrees in the Houston region, with sunny skies and high humidity. This will push the heat index high enough that the National Weather Service has called for a “heat advisory” to cover the area. Winds will not provide much relief, being only light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Nights will continue to be warm and muggy, dropping to only about 80 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure eases to the west, it will open the window to a bit more troughiness, which is to say a disturbance pushing down into the southern United States this weekend may have some influence on our weather. However, the strength of any disturbances or boundaries pushing into the Houston metro area is suspect, and the influence of these is likely to be felt most keenly on the eastern half of our our region.

All of that is to say that we can expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs generally in the upper 90s. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps peaking at 30 to 40 percent on Sunday. Unfortunately, accumulations look slight. Most of the modeling I’ve looked at suggests there is about a 50 percent chance that most of the area sees on the order of one or two tenths of an inch. So really, only a light and fairly inconsequential dusting of rain. There’s always the chance that things will change as we get closer to the weekend, but right now we’re trending away from meaningful relief from the heat and emerging drought.

Next week

Monday and perhaps Tuesday should be another day of temperatures in the upper 90s with modest rain chances. After that, I’m afraid, high pressure will probably begin to assert its control once again.

By raw temperature values, June and July 2022 were each the hottest June and July that Houston experienced in about a century and a half of records. The average temperature last June was 86.7 degrees, and July was 88.0 degrees, both of which beat the previous monthly records by 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit. So far, the average temperature in June and July has been slightly lower than the torrid pace of 2022. However, to me, this summer feels hotter, and a look at the underlying data reveals why this is so. We can see this in both the heat index—which factors in both temperature and dewpoint—as well as nighttime temperatures.

Another way in which this summer’s heat has been extreme has come in terms of nighttime temperatures, making it feel like it is never cool outside. Here’s a look at the number of nights this summer of 80-degrees or warmer.

So what is going on here? The primary driver appears to be an anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico. We can see the warm water’s influence in the sharp jump in heat index (again, higher humidity) and very warm nights at Hobby Airport. This sizzling Gulf of Mexico may portend bad things for hurricanes when the tropics season really gets going in a few weeks, or wind shear may come to our aid. We cannot be sure. But the Gulf’s heat is pushing our temperatures and humidity higher this summer. There is also an underlying impact from the urban heat island effect, but there has not been much urbanization around Hobby Airport between this year and last.

The bottom line is that the planet is warming, and the heat records we’ve seen falling in recent years are a consequence of that. It is probably not correct to say this is “extreme” heat any more. This is simply hot summer weather during an El Niño event. Some of our readers do not like us referencing climate change on this site, and that’s fine. We do not do it often, but sometimes plain talk is warranted. We are an objective, reality based site, and report what we are observing. One reader wrote me yesterday, saying we should stay in our lane. Well, ma’am, weather is our lane. And yes, there is a significant gulf between weather observations and the general climate. But climate is the background influence on local weather conditions. And the planet’s overall thermostat is rising. We can either pretend this isn’t happening, or we can have an adult conversation about what we should do about it. Put simply, the recent summer heat in Texas, and Houston, is abnormal; and in the history of meteorological observations here, it is unprecedented. Also, it sucks.

Now, on to the forecast. Which is hot, humid, and generally pretty awful until the weekend.

Tuesday

High temperatures today will reach 100 degrees for much of the area, with sunny skies and fairly high humidity. Winds will be fairly light, out of the southwest at around 5 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees, although winds may be a bit more gusty from the south. Rain chances are, with the sinking air, very nearly zero.

Wednesday through Friday

As high pressure holds sway, this hot and sunny pattern will more or less persist. Of this, there is not much more to say.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend the omnipresent high pressure system will start to recede to the west, and this should allow a series of atmospheric disturbances to push southward into the Houston area. It remains too early to be able to offer a definitive forecast for what this will mean. But probably, Saturday will be mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 90s, and perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain. Sunday should see a few more clouds, with highs in the mid-90s, and an even healthier chance of rain. By no means are we expecting a washout, but you might hope for 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain through Monday.

Next week

Some rain chances persist into Monday, but after that conditions locally look drier. Highs, probably, will climb back into the upper 90s next week as we continue rolling toward the peak of summer in early August.

Good morning. Very warm weather will continue this week, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees on a daily basis. However, it appears that the ridge of high pressure anchored over the southwestern United States will retreat somewhat by this weekend, allowing for some partly cloudy skies and, potentially, even some rain chances to seep into the area. Do not look for too much relief, but some chance of rain is at least better than none.

I also want to provide some big picture perspective on summer. It is now July 17. Some parts of the United States, including Alaska and the upper Midwest, have reached the peak of summer. However, for Houston the peak of summer does not come until early August—August 4 for Bush Intercontinental Airport, and August 7 for Hobby Airport. Truth be told, the period from mid-July through early September is typically the hottest of the year for us. Let us hope that things turn around this year.

Monday

If you ventured outside over the weekend, you have a pretty good idea for what to expect this week. High temperatures today will push 100 degrees for much of the area away from the immediate coast, with overnight lows only dropping to 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny, with light southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances are virtually zero.

Tuesday through Friday

Conditions will be virtually the same for the rest of the work week, with the only change that highs may be a degree or two below 100 degrees. Still very hot, very humid, and very sunny.

Saturday and Sunday

As high pressure backs off this weekend, we should see the development of a few clouds and, accordingly, some slightly lower afternoon temperatures. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-90s. We also may see the rotation of atmosphere disturbances into the area, and these could be the trigger for some rain showers.

The details of such systems this far out are impossible to predict, but I’d broadly predict a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and perhaps a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain on Sunday. Whether these showers come to pass will also have an effect on air temperatures of course. All of this is fairly hazy at this point, but it is at least possible that the pattern will somewhat change.

Next week

Looking ahead to next week, it appears as though our weather will be fairly typical for late July, which is to say high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. We are, after all, approaching the peak of summer.

Good morning. Since the forecast is pretty much unchanged—expect very hot and sunny weather for the foreseeable future—I want to briefly address a question I’ve received several times. And that is, why does Apple’s weather app consistently show a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain for the next several days?

Now if we’re to believe this forecast, there is a 30 percent chance of rain today, and a healthy 50 percent chance on Friday. And since Apple makes some pretty amazing hardware and software, it’s difficult to doubt Apple. But in this case, the Apple weather app is just massively wrong. The rain chances today are not 30 percent, but rather about 3 percent (as the Space City Weather app, which is not flawless I will say, suggests). And while I would dearly love to be wrong, a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday is preposterous.

This has been a persistent forecast within Apple’s weather app for awhile now. I honestly don’t know why this is occurring because there is no credible modeling suggesting this will happen, and it entirely defies everything I know about meteorology given the current pattern. My only thought is that while AI and automated forecasts are promising, they still require some human curation. Which we endeavor to provide.

Thursday

Meanwhile, back in the real world, we’ve got another excessive heat warning today, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees and a heat index pushing past 110 degrees. The only notable change is that winds out of the south will be a little bit more pronounced, up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Friday

Slightly drier air could push us out of “excessive” heat territory into a simpler heat advisory, but it’s still going to be dang hot. Rain chances are in the sub-5 percent category.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and hot, with rain chances near zero percent.

Next week

Honestly, there’s not a whole lot of change in sight for next week as a ridge of high pressure remains dominant over our weather. Maybe, if I squint, there’s a bit of optimism for returning rain chances by the end of next week. But it’s not a bet I’m placing with confidence.