Eric Berger

Houston has enjoyed a handful of cold fronts so far this fall, but after a few days we’ve always warmed back up into the upper 80s or low 90s. But this week, after a stunning weekend, we’ll barely warm up to 80 degrees before a strong front arrives on Wednesday. And after that front we’ll be in the 60s and 70s for awhile.

I also wanted to spare a few words for the Houston Astros, who found themselves in a challenging spot after a grand slam in the first inning on Sunday night. And still, they battled back, clawing even with the Braves, and then ultimately winning. Now the hometown team returns to Houston for two more games, needing to win both. Minute Maid Park has a roof, so weather won’t be a concern on the field. However it’s possible that the timing of the next front coincides with the aftermath of Game 7 on Wednesday, assuming there’s a Game 7. (And we are). More on this below.

Monday

Today will bring more great weather to Houston. Highs will get into the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints will creep up, so conditions will feel a bit more humid than we experienced over the weekend, but the air won’t be uncomfortable by any means. Winds will be light, generally out of the southeast. Overnight lows tonight will generally fall to around 60 degrees in the city, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas, and warmer along the coast.

Tuesday

Some patchy fog will be possible on Tuesday morning, but that should burn off rather quickly, leaving us with another mostly sunny day and highs near 80 degrees. Overnight lows will again fall about 60 in Houston.

Wednesday

We’ll start to see some cloud cover on Wednesday, and with the onshore flow this day will feel a little bit more humid with highs likely ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. The front’s timing remains somewhat uncertain, but I’d expect it to come through some time between Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. We probably will see some briefly moderate to heavy rain with the front—hence my concern about the aftermath of a potential Game 7—but I’m not sure exactly when this is coming. Most areas probably will receive about 1 inch of rain with the front. Hopefully we’ll be able to firm up the front’s timing in tomorrow’s post.

Thursday

Today’s a sweater day! Clouds should persist for much of Thursday, and this will help to confine high temperatures into the low to mid-60s for the city, with possibly the 50s for inland areas. With moderate northerly winds (nothing like last week), this will be a chilly day and lows Thursday night may drop into the 40s for all areas but the coast.

Friday

Friday should start out clear and cold, and despite sunny skies I’d expect highs to only reach the mid-60s. Winds should be fairly light out of the north. Expect another chilly night, with much of the area reaching the 40s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend looks amazing, with highs of around 70 degrees and lots of sunshine. Rain chances are bascially zero. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence. The early part of next week should bring highs in the 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies and nicely dry air.

Good morning. The cold front is through, and it’s starting to feel a lot more like fall. We’ll see a couple of breezy and cooler days before a truly sublime fall weekend. Temperatures warm a little next week before the probable arrival of another front by Wednesday or so.

Thursday

Temperatures will warm into the mid- to upper-70s today for much of the region, with sunny skies. But perhaps the bigger story will be a persistent northwesterly wind that may at times gust to 30 or 40 mph. What is driving this? Houston is caught between high pressure to our west, and the surface low—the front that crossed our region on Wednesday—off to our east. At the mid-levels of the atmosphere, the pattern looks like this:

If this map is a little confusing, simply remember that air wants to move from higher pressure to lower pressures. On Thursday, and to a lesser extent Friday, our region will be caught within a tight pressure gradient as air flows from high pressure to our west, toward lower pressure eastward. This is what the wind flow map will look like later this morning.

Winds will back off a little this evening, but the potential for gusts of about 20 mph will continue to mix air at the surface. As a result, low temperatures will likely only fall into the mid-50s for urban areas, with temperatures several degrees cooler for inland areas, and warmer along the coast.

Friday

Although the pressure gradient will ease somewhat on Friday, we’ll still see winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph during the daytime. This should be the coolest daytime, with highs perhaps reaching only the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. As winds begin to finally die down Friday evening, it will set the stage for ideal cooling conditions, and this should be the coldest night of the fall so far. Inland areas should see lows in the 40s, with the 50s everywhere else except possibly right on the coast.

Saturday

This will very nearly be a perfect day, with sunny skies, highs in the mid- to upper-70s and light winds. Overnight lows should be a few degrees warmer than Friday night.

Sunday

By Sunday light winds should return from offshore, but our airmass will remain pretty dry overall. Look for highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, with sunny skies. Trick-or-treating temperatures will be in the mid-70s, and it will be rather pleasant.

Next week

Dewpoints will climb into the low 60s next week, so our air will feel a little more humid as highs get back into the low 80s. But it won’t really feel summer-like. Some showers may return by mid-week ahead of what looks like our next front. This should reach the area by Wednesday or so, and although it probably won’t be as strong as the current front, it should still bring overnight lows back into the 50s. Probably.

Winter outlook

Last week, we published a winter outlook. Today, if you’re so inclined, Matt, Maria, and I will discuss this and answer some of your questions in a Facebook Live at 11:30 am CT. Hope to see you there!

Good morning. A strong cold front will sweep across Houston this morning, bringing heavy rainfall and potentially damaging winds as it passes. In the front’s wake rains will quickly end, and with dropping dewpoints we’ll see drier air and cooler weather. Although Thursday and Friday remain somewhat breezy, our weather should be fair and fall-like through the weekend.

Wednesday

As of 6:20 am the line of storms associated with the front is nearing College Station, and should reach the western edge of Harris County by around 7 to 8 am. It should push through the city of Houston itself from 9 to 10 am and be off the coast by about noon. Most areas will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain as the front moves through, with a few areas seeing more where storms are strongest. The main hazard is damaging winds, with hail and perhaps a tornado as a lesser threat. These storms may be briefly nasty, so they’re best avoided if possible. Dewpoints will drop after the front moves through, and we should see highs this afternoon in the 70s with clearing skies. Winds will blow from the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s for most locations except the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny and cooler days, with highs generally in the low to mid-70s. On both days, but especially Thursday, a tight gradient will lead to breezy conditions. Gusts on Thursday could reach about 30 mph or even slightly higher at some locations, with gusts still in the 20s possible on Friday. Overnight lows will reach their nadir on Friday night and Saturday morning, likely dropping into the upper 40s for areas outside the urban core of Houston, and away from the coast.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks amazing. Saturday should see sunny skies, highs in the mid-70s, and lighter winds. Overnight lows into Sunday will be a few degrees warmer as winds begin to return from offshore. Halloween looks quite nice as well, with more mostly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. Temperatures at the hour of trick-or-treating should be in the upper 70s for most locations, with enough dry air to keep things quite nice.

Next week

Some uncertainty remains, of course, but generally we should see a warming trend of temperatures back into the low 80s next week, although right now humidity levels won’t likely get oppressively high. Another front probably comes into the picture by Wednesday or Thursday, potentially setting the stage for another stellar weekend in early November. But that forecast is in pencil for now.

Well, I almost made it with a recent prediction. But alas, Mother Nature is a cruel mistress. Careful readers may recall that, 11 days ago, I wrote:

Today’s the last hot day for awhile. High temperatures away from the coast should reach about 90 degrees, and this probably will be the last time this occurs in 2021. (Emphasis on probably). 

This was just before a nice front moved into Houston, and knocked highs down into the 70s. But then we warmed back up, more aggressively than I anticipated. Still, we managed to avoid 90 degrees for awhile. Over the last week Houston hit 88 degrees three times. I started to breathe easy. Then came Monday, which was realistically the last day I could be wrong with the 90-degree prediction. And wouldn’t you know it? We hit 91 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

What I will say now is this: There is a very, very slight chance our region hits 90 degrees today. But if we don’t Monday, October 25, was the last 90-degree day of 2021.

Tuesday

Due to very high dewpoints, we’re again seeing areas of dense fog across Houston this morning. After the fog clears away we’ll see mostly cloudy skies later today. This cloud cover should help to moderate temperatures a bit, keeping them in the upper 80s. Winds will be out of the southeast at around 10 mph. Some (very light) showers are possible later today, but we should just see clouds for the most part. Lows tonight will be sticky, in the low 70s.

Wednesday

A cold front remains on track for Wednesday, and there will be no doubt as this one blows through Houston. Confidence is increasing that a fairly strong line of storms will accompany the front as it moves from northwest to southeast across the region. Although it will be moving fairly quickly, the front could still drop 1 to 2 inches of rain as it passes, and produce briefly severe winds (now’s a good time to secure Halloween decorations). In terms of timing, the front should reach College Station by around sunrise, push into Houston by 9 or 10 am, and move off the coast by around noon or shortly thereafter. Winds will gust from the west at 20 to 25 mph after the front, with overnight temperatures dropping into the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of breezy, sunny, and cool days. Highs Thursday and Friday should only reach the 70s, and winds may gust as high as 30 mph on Thursday, while remaining brisk on Friday. This will be helping to usher in cooler air, and it now looks like much of the region may drop into the 40s on Friday night, the coolest of the period.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday looks absolutely splendid, like perhaps the nicest day of fall so far. Winds should be light, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s, to go along with plenty of sunshine and dry air. Saturday night should be another cool one, in the 40s and 50s across Houston.

As for Halloween, this forecast is—to borrow a phrase—spooktacular. With sunny skies, highs will reach around 80 degrees. This will set the stage for a pleasant evening, likely in the upper 70s, with enough dry air to keep everyone happy. Rain chances are essentially zero. (This might be a forecast I get right! Almost a week ago, if you recall, I forecast temperatures in the upper-70s for trick-or-treating. You win some, you lose some, in this game).