Eric Berger

There is no doubt it has been a blessedly quiet Atlantic hurricane season. Overall activity is running less than half of “normal” for the Atlantic basin this summer, and this is all the more remarkable given that forecasters predicted a significantly busier-than-normal season in 2022.

From a climatological standpoint, the Atlantic basin passed the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10. Typically, during any given year, nearly 50 percent of tropical storms and hurricanes will form between now and the end of October. For Texas, the timeline is still more compressed. Our chances of being struck by a hurricane fall dramatically after about two weeks from now. So we’re close, but we are definitely not there yet.

Two waves

The Atlantic tropics are really quiet for this time of year, with the National Hurricane Center tracking just two tropical waves—these waves are not in the ocean, by the way, but rather are low pressure systems in the atmosphere with the potential to become tropical systems. Each has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm during the next five days. Of these systems, the one we probably need to watch is the closer of the two to the United States.

At present this is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, but it may find reasonably favorable conditions for development later this week. By around Sunday, something could form near Puerto Rico. In fact, there is decent agreement among many of the European model ensemble members in support of a weak system. After that point, who knows? The system might never develop. It might fall apart. It might move into the Gulf of Mexico. Or it might curve northward toward Florida or the Southeastern United States.

The other potential threat during the next 10 days is some sort of development in the Bay of Campeche that may have some pathway to move north in the Gulf of Mexico.

To be clear: Neither of these systems, at this point, appear to pose anything remotely close to a significant threat to Texas. The present quietude of the tropics, at this time of year, is truly a blessing for North America and the Caribbean Sea. But that doesn’t mean it will last, and during the last two or three weeks of prime tropics time for Texas, we do have a couple of things to watch. Hopefully, in two weeks, I’ll be writing a post saying that we’re pretty confident we’re done with hurricane season in Texas.

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Good morning. A much discussed, but rather weak front has pushed through Houston overnight. This will bring a few cooler and drier nights to the region, especially for areas north of Interstate 10, further away from the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. Some decent rain chances return by Thursday or Friday for coastal areas, but for now we expect these to take the form of mostly scattered showers rather than anything organized.

Monday

High temperatures today will reach the lower 90s for most of the metro area, with sunny skies. Winds will be light, generally out of the north, at about 5 mph. Conditions this evening will be pleasant, relative to typical summertime conditions, as dewpoints drop into the mid-60s for most of the region away from the coast. This is not dry air by any means, but it is drier than we’ve been experiencing. Lows Monday night should drop below 70 degrees for inland areas, with low 70s closer to the coast.

Tuesday

Highs will again be in the low 90s on Tuesday, with sunny skies. If anything, the air should be a smidge drier during the daytime and Tuesday night, so expect another pleasant evening across the area, heading into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

The dry air lingers into Wednesday, and this morning has the potential for the lowest temperatures of the week, with lows possibly in the mid-60s for areas well inland. Expect another day with sunny skies, and highs in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

By later on Wednesday, some time, the onshore flow should reestablish itself, leading to more humid conditions. For coastal areas, this moisture, in concert with the sea breeze, could start to generate some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be significantly less for areas inland of Interstate 10, however. Highs should be in the low 90s for much of the region, with mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern will probably persist into the weekend, providing us with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. Rain chances, overall, look to be fairly low this weekend so plan outdoor activities with confidence—and plenty of bug spray.

Tropics

I’ll have a full roundup of tropical activity in a post later this morning, looking ahead at what to expect for the next week or 10 days as we start to approach the likely end of hurricane season for Texas.

Good morning. The showers and thunderstorms that passed through the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening represented the last gasp of our region’s wet pattern, and we are now moving into a drier period. The region has also passed the worst of summer—what I call “high summer”—and we’re now into “late summer.” This means temperatures will still be warm to hot, but not excruciatingly so, and we can start to look for a few fronts to pass through. The first such front is in the cards for early next week, but unfortunately it is not a particularly strong one.

Thursday

An upper-level low pressure system that helped drive Wednesday’s rainfall has shifted east, so while we will still see a few showers and thunderstorms later today they should be much more scattered in nature. Rain chances will be best, perhaps 20 to 30 percent, along and south of Interstate 10. Otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with high temperatures of around 90 degrees, plus or minus a degree or two. Winds will be light out of the north, at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 70 degrees north of Houston, with temperatures warming the closer one gets to the coast.

Friday

At this point Friday looks a lot like Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances probably fall below 20 percent this weekend, so look for mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low 90s on both days. If you have outdoor activities planned, you should be good to go. We’re expecting a weak front the push towards the area later on Sunday, and this boundary will probably move through overnight. At this point it looks like a dry frontal passage, but we’re not 100 percent sure of that.

Next week

Don’t expect a significant cool down behind the front. It’s just not strong enough. However, the front should bring a modicum of drier air, helping to bring nighttime temperatures down a few degrees, especially for inland areas. This slightly drier air will be most noticeable during evenings and mornings. Highs look to remain in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of next week, with mostly sunny skies. Some rain chances may start to creep back into the forecast toward the weekend—or not.

Tropics

I hate to sound like a broken record, but in this case it’s a good thing. While there are two active storms in the Atlantic, neither is a significant threat to landmasses as Hurricane Earl is now expected to pass to the east of Bermuda. Looking across the deep tropics, and the storm-forming region near the coast of Africa, I don’t see anything that is likely to threaten the Gulf of Mexico. Probably our biggest threat, therefore, is a storm forming locally, in the northern Gulf of Mexico from the remains of a front. But again, there’s just no support right now for such a possibility in models. Things just look good, y’all.

After a very dry spring and start to summer, August brought beneficial rains to the entire region. Parts of the Houston metro area, particularly in Brazoria and Galveston counties, remain in a moderate drought as of this writing, but we have come a long way over the last 30 days. This is especially true as August is typically our hottest and potentially driest month, so we just got through the worst time of year for drought. If you’re wondering how your area stacks up, the map below shows “percent of normal” rainfall for the 30 days preceding September 6. Pretty much the entire western half of the metro area received 200 percent or more of normal rainfall, with most of the eastern half recording 125 to 200 percent.

All good things must come to an end, however, and after today the next two weeks look fairly dry. This does not necessarily signal that we’re going to enter into a prolonged dry spell, but it does mean the frequent rainfall we’ve seen in recent weeks should now subside.

Wednesday

Houston will have another shot at rainfall today, however. I’d peg chances at about 40 percent as an upper-atmospheric disturbance helps generate lift. Look for showers to start out up north later today and then drop down toward the metro area. None of these storms look severe, but you could see a briefly heavy shower. Rain chances fall back this evening. Otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.

Thursday and Friday

These days should see lower rain chances as the disturbance moves away from the area. Call it a 20 percent chance for each day, with mostly sunny skies. We’ll also see winds veer to come more out of the east-northeast, and this should moderate temperatures slightly so that we see highs of around 90 degrees. Overnight lows should drop into the low 70s for Houston, with cooler conditions further inland, and mid- to upper-70s near the coast. This won’t be great, but it won’t be terrible either.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same this weekend, with sunny skies and about a 20 percent chance of daily showers. Highs will be in the low 90s, with nights generally in the 70s.

Next week

We’re still looking at the potential for a front to make it through early next week, and at this point I think it’s likely that something will push into Houston and off the coast on Monday. Please set your expectations accordingly, as this front is probably not going to bring significantly cooler air. But for a day or two we may see some drier air, which should make mornings and evenings feel somewhat—dare I say it?—kind of almost pleasant? Look for highs of 90 degrees for most of next week with low rain chances.

Tropics

There’s a lot going on right now, but over at least the next week or so there is very little of concern for the United States. This is an amazing place to be as we approach the absolute peak of hurricane season on September 10.