Eric Berger

Beginning this morning, Houston has entered a distinctly wetter pattern that should bring 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to much of the region, with higher isolated totals. While area soils are plenty dry and able to handle such rain, the potential for briefly heavy rainfall could lead to a few flooded streets in low-lying areas at some point this week. The wet period may continue into Saturday morning.

Tuesday

So what has changed? After high pressure moved away from the region, much richer moisture has pushed into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, the atmosphere is becoming more unstable as small disturbances begin to move overhead, promoting rising air. As a result of all this we’re going to see fairly widespread showers today across much of the region. With mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures should reach the mid- to upper-80s to go along with light, southeasterly winds. Rain chances become lower by around sunset, but may begin to increase again during the wee hours of Wednesday.

Wednesday

This will be another day with fairly widespread rain showers—about a 60 percent chance—and mostly cloudy skies. Look for highs in the mid-80s. The evening should again provide a bit of a reprieve from shower activity.

Thursday and Friday

At this point it looks like rain chances will peak on Thursday and Friday, with 70 or 80 percent of the area seeing rainfall each day. Highs, accordingly, will be in the mid-80s without much of a cooldown over night.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Beginning on Saturday skies may turn a little more sunny, but we’ll still have a chance for at least some scattered showers. Sunday should be at least partly sunny as well, with highs nudging back into the upper 80s. After that time we’ll be watching to see if a cold front moving down through Texas makes it all the way through Houston and off the coast early next week . Either way, right now, the front looks to be a fairly weak one, with only moderate effects on temperatures and dewpoints. Your sweaters are safe in their closets, for now.

After five sunny and splendid days, Houston’s weather will turn warmer and muggier in the days ahead, with increasing rain chances by Tuesday running through the end of the week. Much of the area should see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall this week, which is fine as it has now been nearly two weeks since Hurricane Nicholas made landfall.

Monday

Today will be somewhat of a transition day after high pressure has departed the region. Yes, atmospheric moisture is returning, but levels should not be high enough to generate much in the way of shower activity. Area-wide, rain chances will be only about 10 percent. There should be enough afternoon sunshine to allow temperatures to approach 90 degrees for much of the region, and lows will only drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday

Conditions turn more favorable for showers on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing to about 40 percent. Additional cloud cover should shave a degree or two off peak temperatures during the afternoon. Storms will be scattered, and should move fairly quickly from south to north.

Wednesday and Thursday

Rain chances will peak on these days, as an energetic atmospheric feature known as a “jet streak” moves overhead and helps air at the surface to rise. As a result, both of these days should be mostly cloudy, with on and off shower activity. Highs will be in the mid- to upper 80s. Rain will be possible during the overnight hours as well.

Friday

Models suggest rain chances will start to diminish on Friday, perhaps to around 50 percent, but this should still be a mostly cloudy day, with highs slotting somewhere in the mid-80s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The forecast for next weekend remains fairly fuzzy. It now seems unlikely that a front will make it through the area, but we may fall further under the influence of high pressure by Saturday or so, and this should bring sunnier weather back to the region. For now, I’d predict partly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the upper 80s. But the forecast is written in pencil, rather than pen. The arrival of our next front now looks to be delayed until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tropics

The Atlantic tropics remain active, with major hurricane Sam and a couple of more areas likely to develop later this week. However, Sam will probably steer east of Bermuda and avoid any landmasses, and there is no reason to believe any of the other storms in the Atlantic will track far enough west to reach the Gulf of Mexico.

It’s a strange time a year. The historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season came fewer than two weeks ago. Moreover, a little more than a week ago, Hurricane Nicholas struck the Texas coast and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands in the region. And today, Space City Weather is saying hurricane season is probably over for Texas? Really? Why yes. Yes we are.

There are a couple of reasons for this. Historically, the odds of a hurricane striking the state of Texas are about 1-in-50 after September 24. Our confidence is increased this year because, looking ahead at the next 10 days, the western Gulf of Mexico looks pretty quiet, especially north of the Bay of Campeche. This is the time of year when the jet streak starts a seasonal swing southward, and our region becomes more prone to cold fronts, which push any tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico to the east. We’ve already seen one weak front about 12 days ago, a stronger one yesterday, and there’s perhaps another front coming early in October.

All of this means that we’re pretty confident that Texas is not going to get hit by another hurricane this year, even though the “Atlantic season” runs through November 30. We may very well still see tropical mischief, in the form of a depression or moisture that sparks some heavy rainfall. But the blowy, storm-surge stuff—we’re probably done with worrying about that for 2021. As always, we’ll keep an eye on the tropics. But you don’t have to if you don’t want to.

Thursday

There’s not a whole lot to say about our weather other than it’s gorgeous. Lows this morning range from the 50s inland to about 70 right along the coast. Today will bring more dry air, with light easterly winds, sunny skies, and highs in the mid-80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s.

Friday and Saturday

Expect more of the same. Highs in the 80s. Sunny skies. Mostly dry air.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend should see continued sunny skies, but dewpoints are going start climbing, and so while temperatures remain in the 80s it will start to feel a touch more humid. Lows Sunday night will be notably warmer, likely only dropping to around 70 in Houston.

Next week

Much of next week will be something of a return to summer-lite weather, with highs near 90 degrees, lows in the low 70s, and lots of clouds. As the influence of high pressure lessens, we’ll open back up to moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and rain chances will increase to perhaps 50 or 60 percent each day. As a rough guess I’d say much of the metro area sees 1 to 3 inches of rain total, or thereabouts. But it’s still too early for any precision. The models are starting to hint at a front in the Friday or Saturday range of next week, but there are certainly no guarantees.

This is my second favorite post of the year to write—that fall’s first real front has finally arrived in Houston. (Tomorrow, I plan to write my favorite). Not only will we see drier and cooler air, one of the pleasant surprises of this front is its sticking power. We should see about four days and notably cooler nights before humidity levels start to creep up on Sunday. More typically, our first fall front washes out within a couple of days. So let’s enjoy!

Wednesday

Dewpoints have generally fallen to the upper 50s this morning, and should fall further throughout the day. Accordingly, the air will feel much drier. With lots of sunshine, temperatures will quickly warm to the mid-80s this afternoon, but drop again as the Sun sets. Winds will be out of the north from 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Overnight lows will vary widely, from about 50 degrees in Conroe to 70 degrees right along the coast, in Galveston Island.

Thursday and Friday

More of the same: Sunny skies, highs in the low- to mid-80s, and cool nights down in the low 60s in Houston, and cooler for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks a bit warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s, but there should still be enough dry air to keep conditions pleasant, especially on Saturday. Skies will be sunny, and rain chances near zero. Plan outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

As the onshore flow really returns on Sunday, we’ll start to see dewpoints climb, and we’ll get back to late summertime weather with highs near 90 degrees. Rain chances should also start to increase by Tuesday or Wednesday as atmospheric moisture levels rise, along with lots of cloud cover. Most of next week will probably be warmer and muggier.