Eric Berger

Good morning. Houston’s typical weather for August will continue on schedule. That means heat, humidity, and for a lucky, very few, perhaps an afternoon shower. Otherwise we’re going to see highs in the mid-90s for days, and plenty of sunshine. We’re also monitoring the tropics, where “Fred” is likely to form later today.

Tuesday

Torrid Tuesday will see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are probably only about 10 percent this afternoon, Winds will be moderate, at about 10 mph out of the south with slightly higher gusts. Overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 degrees for much of the area, so it will definitely be sticky.

Wednesday

Wickedly warm Wednesday may see rain chances a little bit higher south of Interstate 10, but otherwise be a lot like Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday

Turned up Thursday and Fiery Friday will see more of the same, with approximately a 20 percent chance of a brief afternoon shower and otherwise hot and mostly sunny conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

Sultry Saturday and Sweltering Sunday—OK, I’ll stop that—should see more of the same. However, rain chances may increase slightly on Saturday and Saturday night as a weak front approaches the region. This front should not change our temperatures much, but may induce enough lift in the atmosphere to bring a 30 percent chance, or so, of rain. Otherwise expect highs in the mid-90s. This hot, August-like pattern should continue into next week.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center started tracking “Potential Tropical Cyclone 6” on Monday. Why the weird name? This is a relatively new product forecasters use when they expect a storm to form, and want to give residents some warning before the storm is directly upon them. In this case, people living in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba are more aware that a tropical storm is likely to form today. If and when it forms, the storm will be named “Fred.”

There is a fair amount of confidence in the forecast track for Fred across the Caribbean Islands, and approaching southern Florida late Friday or early Saturday. After that it probably will go into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and track toward the Florida panhandle. It’s a little too far out to have high confidence, but the coming weekend does look wet in Florida. Fortunately, due to wind shear, chances are Fred remains a tropical storm rather than becoming a hurricane. But again, time will tell. There is no threat to Texas.

One other system of note is in the far eastern Atlantic, having only recently moved off of Africa into the ocean. Forecast models are fairly bullish on this system eventually developing as it tracks westward across the Atlantic Ocean. A lot of models, including the European, bring this system along a track much like that of Fred, across the Caribbean Islands and toward Florida. However, it is possible that this system follows a more due westerly track, reaching the Caribbean Sea about a week from now. In that case it would become something we would have to monitor more closely in Texas. But that is a long, long, long way off and not worth worrying about at all.

For those of you who have lived through August a time or two in Houston, you’ll know there’s really not much escaping the heat. Fortunately, we’re not going to fall under a classic heat dome this week, so highs should remain below the triple digits. But there will be enough high pressure to keep rain chances fairly low. The bottom line is that it’s an easy forecast: hot, humid, with scattered afternoon rain chances. The tropics are more interesting, so we’ll discuss them below as well.

Monday

Did you like Sunday’s weather? Because that is what in the cards for today, with highs in the mid-90s and partly to mostly sunny skies. Most of the area has about a one-in-four chance of seeing a brief shower later this afternoon as the sea breeze gets fired up. Winds will be out of the south, gusting up to 20 mph later this afternoon. Overnight lows may briefly drop below 80 degrees overnight, but will remain warm and sticky.

Tuesday through Friday

Right now we just don’t see much variability in the forecast through Friday. So for now, expect Groundhog Day-like weather, except for the odd shower that pops up during the afternoon hours.

Saturday and Sunday

Maybe this pattern changes by the weekend, but more likely it probably won’t. So expect to see more partly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid 90s, and a few stray showers. We are in the middle of August, and this is the real Houston weather we all know and hate. Love! I mean love. This is the real Houston weather we all know and love. Yeah. That’s what I mean.

Tropics

It has been exactly one month since the demise of Hurricane Elsa, and it sure has been a nice break in the Atlantic tropics. But alas, all good things must come to an end and now the tropics are very much coming to life. There are a couple of blobs on the National Hurricane Center’s five-day forecast.

94L

We’ll start with the system that has a better chance of developing sooner. This system has about a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next two days as it moves across the Caribbean islands. It should affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, with rains, if not strong winds as well.

The jury is really out on whether 94L will strengthen much beyond a tropical storm as it must not only interact with these islands, and the overall pattern is not not ideal for intensification. But with that said the models have been under-selling 94L and it would not surprise me to see a strong tropical storm or modest hurricane near Cuba or South Florida by Saturday of this week.

After that? Perhaps it will ride up the Florida peninsula or track a bit further westward into the Gulf of Mexico before turning north. Regardless, at this time, direct effects for Texas seem a low probability. We’ll keep watching regardless.

93L

This system is far less organized, and will likely remain so for a while. However, as the tropical wave moves westward into the Caribbean Sea this weekend, it may eventually find more favorable conditions under which to organize. (Or it could very simply fade away). Regardless, it’s something to continue to watch if its holds together this week. Why? Because in Texas we never really want to see low pressure systems in the Caribbean Sea of Gulf of Mexico this time of year.

On Thursday NOAA released an updated version of its Atlantic season hurricane forecast and some media coverage framed it in a fairly intimidating way—suggesting the forecast had gotten “worse” or more dangerous in some way. The reality is that the forecast increased from an estimate of 13-20 named storms for this season to 15 to 21 named storms, and 6-10 hurricanes to 7 to 10 hurricanes.

This “increase” simply reflects the fact that the early season was a little more active than anticipated, and that overall nothing has changed with regard to tropical activity for the remainder of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Frankly, we already knew this was going to be an active season. And as Matt wrote on Tuesday, the tropics are now heating up on schedule, with the next six to eight weeks are the time of greatest concern for Texas. Fortunately, there are no immediate threats to the Gulf of Mexico and we’ll continue to take it day by day.

Thursday

A cluster of showers near Galveston Island is likely to remain confined near the coast this morning, as drier air remains aloft further inland. As high pressure over our region slides east of the region later today, we could see the development of scattered showers this afternoon, generally along and to the west of Interstate 45, but we don’t anticipate anything too organized. Skies will otherwise be partly to even mostly cloudy today, suppressing highs into the lower 90s. Rain chances should end overnight, with lows generally dropping into the upper 70s.

Friday

As the onshore flow begins to return on Friday there may be enough moisture to produce rain across about 30 to 40 percent of the area, but for the most part these should be short lived, light showers. Skies otherwise should be partly to mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances fall back to around 20 percent over the weekend, or less, as fairly typical August weather moves into the area. We can probably expect highs in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine, so plan your outdoor activities accordingly.

Next week

The forecast for next week looks fairly uneventful. We can probably expect days with highs in the low- to mid-90s, with spotty afternoon showers driven by the sea-breeze. Honestly, any time we’re not experiencing weather that’s extreme in August, I count it as a win.

The August cool front has effectively moved down to the coast, and it has shoved most of the moisture offshore. As a result we should see a pair of pretty fine days—for August, of course—before the front washes out. Rain chances will increase somewhat by Friday but overall I still expect the weekend to be mostly sunny for most of us.

Wednesday

Light northerly winds are helping to bring moderately drier air into the region today, and this will help to limit rain chances. For inland areas, north of Interstate 10, rain chances are probably 10 percent or less. But closer to the coast, especially for areas such as Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Wharton counties, we could see storms pulse up this afternoon with daytime heating. Otherwise, highs today should be around 90 degrees for much of the area, with partly sunny skies. Overnight lows will probably be the lowest of the week, with some far inland areas perhaps seeing the upper 60s to low 70s. It will be a good evening for a walk or to otherwise get outdoors.

Thursday

This should be another reasonably nice August day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 90s. Rain chances should be below 20 percent for the entire region.

Friday

As the onshore flow returns, so too will humidity and possibly some better rain coverage. Highs Friday will be in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. There probably is about a 40 percent chance of afternoon showers flaring up.

Saturday and Sunday

There are still some questions about the weekend forecast, but my best guess at this point is hot and sunny weather, with highs in the mid-90s. Depending on the overall setup of the atmosphere we might see about a one-in-three chance of afternoon showers, or it could be lower than that. I hope to have that better nailed down for you tomorrow.

Next week

As we get deeper into August, it looks as though we’ll see fairly typical August-like weather next week. This means highs generally in the mid-90s, lots of sunshine, and the potential for scattered afternoon showers along the sea breeze.