Eric Berger

Good morning. This will be a fairly wet week, with more clouds than sunshine. Rain chances will peak today and Tuesday, before a bit of a lull, with healthy rain chances returning for the Fourth of July weekend. Will the holiday be a total washout? Probably not, but it’s too early to tell whether it will rain during our much anticipated fireworks’ shows.

Monday

Pretty much everyone in the Houston region is guaranteed to see rain today as an upper-level low pressure system combines with a very moist atmosphere. But whereas some regions see intermittent light showers, others will see downpours. So far storms have moved steadily from southeast to northwest, and this motion has limited rainfall rates to 1 to 2 inches per hour as storms move through. Our primary concern is that, in a few areas, these storms may grind to a halt.

Overall, I expect much of the region will see 1 to 3 inches today, with a few bullseyes of 3 to 5 inches closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10. A few low-lying roadways may flood, but overall these totals should be manageable. Do take care during your morning and evening commute, however. Highs today will likely crest in the mid-80s, with lows dropping into the mid-60s tonight as shower activity wanes, but does not entirely go away.

Tuesday

Tuesday should be a bit like Monday-lite, with the potential for heavy rainfall again, but likely less coverage and less intensity as overall conditions are a bit less favorable. Still most of the area will again see at least some rainfall, with highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

As the upper-level low moves away, rain chances will back off a bit, leaving us with partly sunny days. Some sea-breeze driven showers will still be possible during the afternoon hours on these days, but at this point I think they’ll probably be more “miss” than “hit” at this point. Highs will likely rise into the low 90s, which is not terrible as we get into July.

Saturday and Sunday

After a few drier days, in terms of rainfall, precipitation chances will probably be on the rise this weekend as the atmosphere turns more unstable. Unfortunately, we’re still a little too far out to have much confidence in the overall forecast, but right now I’d pencil in 60 percent rain chances each day, which could be problematic for outdoor activities. Given that we’re still several days away, this forecast is far from locked in, but something to keep in mind.

Tropics

We’re likely to see tropical activity pick back up this week after a lull in late June, but for now we don’t see any real threats to Texas or Louisiana over the next week or two. We’ll have more in our weekly tropics report tomorrow.

Good morning. With high pressure more or less holding sway, our region will now see three hot and mostly sunny days before the forecast begins to change on Sunday. Most of next week still looks fairly cloudy and somewhat cooler, with healthy rain chances, although details remain very much to come.

Thursday

There are a few scattered showers along the coast this morning, and some of those may migrate inland before, or by around noon, and likely peter out south of Interstate 10. Otherwise, we’re looking at mostly sunny skies today, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, and light southerly winds. Combined with high dewpoints, this will be a hot and sticky day. Lows tonight won’t drop below 80 degrees for much of the area.

Friday

This should be a carbon copy of Thursday.

Saturday

Rain chances may increase to about 20 percent on Saturday, but for the most part this should again be a hot and mostly sunny day with highs in the low to mid-90s. If you have outdoor plans for Saturday, they should be good to go.

Sunday

I’m less sure about the second half of the weekend. High pressure will begin to retreat on Saturday, and this should open the door to more widespread showers on Sunday. While this should not lead to heavy rain on Sunday, you probably have about a 50 percent chance of seeing some showers on Sunday, with the possibility of a few thunderstorms. Skies will likely be partly sunny, with highs in the low 90s.

Next week

The upper atmosphere will be such that our region will see a series of disturbances move overhead next week, a pattern that could persist through the entire work week. This will lead to more cloud cover, and the absence of high pressure will lead to rain chances on the order of 40 to 60 percent each day, if not higher. I have little confidence in making an accumulation forecast this far out, but I suspect most areas will see at least 1 to 3 inches overall. This will help to keep high temperatures down to around 90 degrees.

Good morning. Today is something of a transition day, with ample moisture across the area battling against high pressure building into the area. As a result I think we’ll see at least some scattered rain showers today before a few days of mostly sunny and hot weather from Thursday into the weekend. Healthy rain chances return by Sunday.

Wednesday

Some showers have developed over the Matagorda Bay region this morning, and this activity should progress toward the Houston region later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. These showers will definitely be hit or miss, with a few areas seeing some briefly heavy rain and most others no rain at all. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will not drop below 80 degrees for much of Houston.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure exerts a little more influence I think rain chances will fall back to less than 20 percent toward the end of the work week. This, combined, with mostly sunny skies, should lead to a pair of hot and sunny days for the region with light southerly winds. Lows will remain sticky, in the upper 70s to low 80s. As we get closer to July, it’s going to feel a lot like July.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should see similar conditions to Thursday and Friday, although there may be a slightly higher chance of an afternoon shower on Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies, and if you have outdoor activities planned I think you’re probably going to be fine.

Sunday may be a different story, with a few more clouds, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. Right now I don’t think there’s any kind of washout in the cards, but there’s definitely the possibility of passing showers. This should help to limit high temperatures to the low 90s.

Next week

Yet another dying front may approach Houston next week, and this in concert with rising atmospheric moisture levels will lead to better rain chances. It’s really hard to pin down any kind of details at this point, but most of next week will probably see highs of around 90 degrees, with solid rain chances. As for accumulations, it’s too early to do much more than speculate, but we’re probably looking at 1 to 3 inches for much of the region, with higher local amounts. If this happens it will put our soils in a good place heading into July.

In meteorological terms, a cool front is in fact moving into the region. However, in practical terms, it’s late June. So don’t expect much cool or dry air. Far inland areas may see some dewpoints in the upper 60s, but overall the only sensible effects from this storm will be elevated rain chances. We saw scattered storms on Monday—some of which were pretty intense on the east side—and a slightly more organized line of storms dropped into Houston overnight. These rains should continue to progress toward the coast this morning.

Tuesday

Skies will clear out later this morning for most of the region, with light northeast winds and high temperatures reaching about 90 degrees. All in all, for late June, not bad. Moisture levels will remain higher south of Interstate 10, so we could well see the redevelopment of at least some scattered showers there after noon today. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 70s.

Wednesday

The “front,” such as it is, will retreat back north on Wednesday and high pressure will gradually replace it. This will allow for skies to remain partly to mostly sunny, and highs should push back into the low 90s at least. A few showers may develop during the afternoon hours, along the sea breeze.

Thursday and Friday

Full-on summer weather returns, with ample sunshine and highs reaching the mid-90s. Again, the sea breeze may spark a few showers, but most of us will remain dry.

Saturday and Sunday

The high pressure that will make for sunny conditions during the second half of the work week will likely weaken by Saturday, leading to an increase in rain chances. Saturday still will probably be mostly sunny, and with perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain I’d say many outdoor activities should be OK. I’m less confident in Sunday, when shower coverage might increase some, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs will be in the low- to mid-90s, regardless.

Next week

Rain chances will likely tick up further on Monday and Tuesday of next week as atmospheric moisture levels are likely to increase, and atmospheric conditions favor rising air. It’s too early to say much about accumulations, but 1 to 2 inches of rain after several hot and sunny days would be not be unwelcome.

Tropics

The Gulf of Mexico is quiet in the wake of Tropical Storm Claudette, but we’re starting to see some signs that the deeper tropics are waking up. (To be clear, there is nothing out there right now that should really concern us at all). Matt will have a full roundup on the tropics in a post early this afternoon.