Eric Berger

Hurricane season started with a bang—so what does that mean?

Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall on Sunday evening in southeastern Louisiana, bringing winds, waves, and heavy rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This seems as good of a time as any to take stock of a frenetic start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and assess what it means for the rest of the year.

Busy start

Cristobal formed on June 2 in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, and this was the earliest ever point in the Atlantic season that the third named storm has formed in a given year. (However imperfect, the Atlantic basin has records dating back to 1851). The previous earliest “C” storm was Colin, on June 5, 2016. Arthur and Bertha, which were both relatively weak and short lived storms, formed this year even before the season officially began on June 1.

This may seem like an ominous beginning to what seasonal forecasters have predicted to be a busy season. But according to hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, there is little correlation between early season storms and the total activity (in terms of number of storms and their overall intensity) for the remainder of the year. In fact, the correlation is slightly negative.

Correlation between seasonal activity and first named-storm formation. (Phil Klotzbach)

What this means is that we’re not really going to know the full tale of the 2020 season until about August, when activity in the tropical Atlantic Ocean—known as the Main Development Region—gets fired up. This is the period of summer when we start to watch tropical waves spin off the western coast of Africa, and develop into tropical systems as they migrate westward across the Atlantic Ocean toward the Caribbean Sea. We’re still about six to eight weeks from the opening of this period.

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Yes, a bonafide front is on the way Tuesday night

Good morning. This week will start out very hot for June, but as Matt noted on Friday an actual cool front will arrive by Tuesday night to bring some relief from the humidity. Days are are still going to be hot of course, but the drier air in the wake of this front will definitely make for some pleasant evenings and mornings that are rare in Houston, in June.

Monday

The center of Tropical Depression Cristobal has now moved inland over southern Louisiana and Mississippi and is bringing heavy rains to the deep south. Houston likes on the extreme western edge of the storm and may see some very scattered, brief showers as a result today. However, skies will be mostly sunny and the bigger story will be heat as high temperatures push into the mid- or upper 90s today. (For reference, highs in most locations on Sunday peaked at about 95 degrees). Winds will be out of the west at 5 to 10 mph, and lows tonight will provide little relief with temperatures falling only to around 80 degrees for most.

As of Monday morning, Houston lies on the far western end of Cristobal. (kktv.com)

Tuesday

This will be the warmest day of the week for Houston—and probably the warmest day so far of 2020. With mostly sunny skies and a light southerly wind, expect highs to reach the upper 90s, with some inland areas possibly pushing 100 degrees. Typically, Houston records its first 100-degree day in mid-July, so this would be quite early.

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With Cristobal likely headed east, Houston to feel the heat

Good morning. We’re approaching the longest day of the year—June 20—but we’ve already reached the earliest sunrise of the calendar year for Houston. From June 3 to June 17, sunrise will occur at 6:20 am CT before it starts to get later. Our sunsets will continue to get later until July 2. (Why is this? Well, it’s a bit complicated). Weather-wise, we’re looking at a lot of sunshine in the week ahead as long as Tropical Storm Cristobal stays east of Houston, which is looking increasingly likely.

100-degree temperatures are coming to West Texas today. They may reach East Texas next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

We should see partly sunny skies today, which will allow high temperatures to nudge up to 90 degrees or slightly above. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, but they’re not going to be as organized as we saw on Wednesday. Some models are hinting at the best chance of rain between Houston and Beaumont, but even then it’s a really scattered shot at showers. Most of us will just be dry and hot, with light winds out of the southeast.

Friday

Expect a similar day to Thursday, although perhaps a touch warmer. We expect to see high pressure building in from the west—the same high pressure that will probably help steer Cristobal east of the region—and this will set the region on a warming trend into the weekend and likely beyond.

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Showers possible today, Houston heating up, and a Cristobal update

Good morning. Houston is seeing warm and humid conditions this week, as one would expect in June. However, we still have a ways to go in terms of summertime heat, and the region should reach the mid-90s by Saturday. The question remains about what happens after that, and it almost entirely depends on what happens with Tropical Storm Cristobal. At the moment, it still appears as though the storm and the bulk of its effects will probably stay east of Houston, but we’re far from being able to make a definitive call on that.

Wednesday

Today should produce the region’s best chance of showers and thunderstorms until at least Sunday. A combination of daytime heating, ample moisture in the atmosphere, and only moderate high pressure should allow for some storms to fire up this afternoon before fading this evening. High resolution models offer a mixed bag of solutions, bit given our recent pattern I’m fairly bullish on at least some moderately strong storms firing up closer to the coast and pushing inland later today. Areal coverage of these storms will probably be in the 30 to 50 percent range, so not everyone is going to get wet. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with highs of about 90 degrees.

Expect high temperatures to push into the mid-90s by Saturday. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

As high pressure settles into the area we should see a warming trend, with partly to mostly sunny skies through Saturday, and highs rising into the mid-90s. Under such a pattern we normally would expect only slight afternoon rain chances along the sea breeze.

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