Eric Berger

I feel like Houston is standing on the edge of the abyss this morning. We’ve got one more day of partly sunny weather with a moderate chance of rain before high pressure settles in. And by settle in, I mean builds over the region and dominates our weather in one of those classic summertime ridges that pushes up temperatures and drives away precipitation. Rain chances are not particularly great today, but they’re near zero for at least the next week after today.

Tuesday

Coastal areas should see some scattered showers this morning as higher levels of atmospheric moisture push inland, and some additional showers may push down from the north into areas such as Montgomery County and Harris County this afternoon. Still, overall chances are probably only 30 to 40 percent. Some clouds may help limit high temperatures into the low 90s. Winds will be light, out of the south at about 5 mph. With mostly cloudy skies tonight, lows probably will struggle to drop below 80 degrees for most.

Wednesday and Thursday

We’ll see building high pressure over the region, but temperatures won’t reach exceptional levels just yet. These days should be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s, and south winds at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday

Hot and sunny. Highs will range from the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will offer scant relief, falling into the low 80s along the coast, and upper 70s inland. Please take care outside during the warmest parts of the day.

Next week

This pattern appears unlikely to change before at least Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and our next chance at any semblance of precipitation is unlikely to occur before around the July 16-18 time frame. Hot and sunny are your bywords for Houston’s weather now.

For the first time in more than a week, Houston’s radar is filling up with light to moderate rain showers this morning. The region will see a reasonable chance of rain today and Tuesday before decreasing chances by mid-week. After that the heat will return in force, with highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees by the coming weekend. Houston has yet to hit the century mark in temperatures in 2020, but that could change by Saturday or Sunday.

Monday

A combination of an upper-level disturbance and moist atmosphere will allow clouds to form today, and support scattered shower development, with the better chances likely along and north of Interstate 10. We don’t anticipate anything too heavy falling today, but the additional clouds should help to modulate temperatures after highs in the mid- to upper-90s over the last week. Expect highs today in the low-90s. Humidity will still be quite high, and don’t expect overnight low temperatures to fall much below 80 degrees.

Tuesday

This day will probably offer our best chance of rain for this week—and perhaps beyond. I think most areas probably will see at least light rain, with an average of about one-quarter inch of rainfall for most. A few isolated areas may see 1 inch or more of rain. Mostly cloudy skies should help hold high temperatures to about 90 degrees, but it will definitely be a steamy 90 degrees.

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Here comes the heat. With high pressure in the vicinity of Houston, we’re heading into a classic heat pattern for the region during summer. It can get hotter than this—I don’t think the region will see much 100-degree weather this time—but the combination of heat and humidity will be stultifying during the midday hours.

Thursday and Friday

These two days will be similar, so there’s no reason to separate them out. Both will see lots of sunshine by the late morning hours and throughout the day. Expect high temperatures to reach the mid- to upper-90s, with lows falling into the upper 70s for most areas except the coast. Light winds, out of the south at about 5 mph, will not provide much relief.

Independence Day

Conditions won’t change much on July Fourth. We may see a few clouds, and there will be some slight rain chances to the east of Interstate 45. But for most of us, conditions will remain hot and sunny, with highs likely in the upper 90s.

Sunday through Tuesday

It looks like an upper-level low pressure system will now set up to the east of Houston, over the Gulf of Mexico, and so the best rain chances likely will set up for the eastern half of the metro area early next week. Confidence remains low—but if you live in a place like Katy I would not expect much rain, whereas if you’re in Baytown 0.5 to 1 inch may be in the cards. In any case, a few more clouds should take a bit of the edge off of temperatures for a few days.

After this, high pressure should again build over the region, and the second half of next week looks quite hot. Summer, y’all!

June ended up with an average temperature of 82.5 degrees—which is bang on the normal temperature for Bush Intercontinental Airport over the last three decades. Thanks to persistent cloud cover and days of rain, the second half of the month was generally cooler after a hot start to the month. That may make the onset of July, and more typical summertime heat, a little more difficult to bear. For although this week’s heat won’t be exceptional, it will be a bit warmer than normal for July, which is to say hot and humid.

Saharan sunrise over H-Town #houwx #SaharanDust pic.twitter.com/UzyOafvlwL

— Matt Haworth (@haworth87) July 1, 2020

Wednesday

It is awfully sticky outside this morning, with temperatures generally at or above 80 degrees with dewpoints not far behind. There is a bit of dust in the air, as evidenced by the photos above. Some lingering clouds and a bit of moisture may help generate a few isolated showers this morning, but for the most part we should see clearing skies and soaring temperatures today, with highs rising into the mid-90s. Winds will be prominent out of the south, gusting up to 20 mph. Low temperatures Wednesday night will again struggle to drop below 80 degrees for much of the metro area.

Thursday and Friday

Welcome to summer. With high pressure in control of the region’s weather we can expect a pair of hot and sunny days. Look for temperatures to rise into the upper 90s for most of the region, with plenty of humidity pushing the heat index above 100 degrees. These are the kinds of days when you’ll step outside in the afternoon and say, “Oh yeah, now I remember what summer in Houston can feel like.”

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