Eric Berger

Mostly dry weather until a weak front nears Houston late Friday

Good morning. After several wetter days for the region, rain chances will slacken some to end the work week before returning again Friday night. As we head into August this weekend, high temperatures will likely remain mostly in the low 90s, which is fairly “pleasant” for what is typically the hottest time of the year in Houston.

Thursday

Some drier air is mixing into the atmosphere this morning, and this should help to limit shower and thunderstorm activity later today across the region. Rain chances are likely around 20 percent for most locations. Skies should become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon, and this will allow highs to warm into the low or mid-90s for the region. Winds, generally, will be light, coming from the south. Skies should turn partly to mostly cloudy tonight, leading to warm and humid conditions, with lows struggling to fall below 80 degrees for much of the region.

NAM model forecast shows potential of storms developing early Saturday morning. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Conditions will be similar on Friday, with partly to mostly sunny skies leading to another warm day with highs in the low- to mid-90s. Later in the day a dying cool front will approach the region from the northwest. This may ultimately bring some drier air into the northern half of the metro area, but initially it may lead to some storms over areas north of Interstate 10—particularly Austin, Waller, Washington, Grimes, and Montgomery counties. Some models indicate a line of storms moving into these areas between midnight Friday and Saturday morning. We’ll continue to track this to see if it’s likely to come to fruition.

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Scattered, strong storms possible again Wednesday

Although they were somewhat scattered, storms that developed Tuesday across the metro area were briefly quite intense. Cells over areas such as the Energy Corridor west of Houston, Clear Lake, and near Sienna Plantation briefly recorded rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour, quickly backing up streets. We should see a similar pattern today, with the potential for some scattered, strong storms before a few drier days.

Wednesday

Although they should number fewer than on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop near the coast this morning and then gradually spread inland. Probably about 30 or 40 percent of the area will see anything between a few sprinkles and briefly heavy rainfall. Between any showers, skies will be partly sunny, and this should help high temperatures warm into the low- or possibly even mid-90s for areas that see mostly sunshine. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Rain chances will (mostly) die back during the evening and overnight hours.

High temperatures by Friday will rise into the mid-90s for most. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday and Friday

Houston will lie on the periphery of high pressure and this will help to bring rain chances down to the 10 to 20 percent chance level. As a result this should be a pair of mostly sunny, hot days with highs likely reaching into the mid-90s, and possibly upper-90s for inland areas. Winds will be light, out of the south or southwest, so don’t expect too much relief from these typical days for the end of July.

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Heading toward hotter, sunnier weather later this week

Good morning. We’re entering a summertime pattern where showers will be possible on most days, but rainfall by no means a certainty. For late July and August, our weather during the coming week will actually run on something of an even keel, with temperatures neither too hot or cold for this time of year, and neither a blistering drought nor flooding rainfall. We’ll take it.

Tuesday

Today will probably bring the best chance of widespread rain and heavy showers as an upper-level low pressure system passes slowly overhead toward the southwest. This should initiate showers during the late morning hours into the late afternoon or early evening. Areal coverage will probably be about 50 percent. As we saw on Monday, some of these storms should be pretty efficient lightning generators. Highs may rise into the low 90s this afternoon with partly sunny skies, and winds will be light out of the south. Overnight lows Tuesday night will be similar to those for the rest of the week—upper 70s for inland areas and lower 80s for the coast.

Map of lightning strikes on Monday and Monday night. (Lightningmaps.org)

Wednesday

Wednesday will again bring a healthy chance of showers. However, with the upper-level low moving away we should see less organization in any storms that form, and probably fewer thunderstorms. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny and highs in the low 90s.

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Unsettled weather remains for the first half of the week

As expected, Houston saw periodic heavy rainfall this weekend from the outer bands of Hurricane Hanna, but totals were more than manageable. The heaviest rains came near the center of the storm, which moved inland near Port Mansfield and proceeded to drop as much as 15 inches of rainfall over South Texas, leading to widespread flooding. Hanna has now become a depression in northern Mexico and should dissipate today. Despite our region’s dynamic weather over the last week, we have more to come.

Monday

For the next couple of days our weather will be determined, to some extent, by “cutoff low” in the upper atmosphere. Presently this atmospheric disturbance is east of Houston, producing widespread showers over southwestern Louisiana and over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper low should slowly sag toward Texas, bringing a healthy—50 percent chance of rain—later today. Some of these storms could briefly produce heavy rainfall and lightning. The potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon should help limit high temperatures to about 90 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Winds will be light for most of the day and rain chances should slacken overnight—but not entirely go away.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for now through Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Tuesday

This should be another day like Monday, with the atmospheric disturbance again influencing our weather. Storms likely will again develop over parts of the metro area during the late morning hours, and into the afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall but should be progressive enough to not lead to flooding. An unsettled atmosphere should again limit high temperatures to about 90 degrees.

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