Eric Berger

As noted Monday, Houston has reached the peak of summer. However, we’ve yet to record any 100-degree days. The highest mark recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport has been 97 degrees, which the city has reached three times. This isn’t all that abnormal, as we usually see most of our 100-degree days in the coming month or so. But still, it is another indicator that, so far at least, conditions for Houston during the summer of 2019 have been fairly moderate. With that in mind, here is some 100-degree day climatology for the city of Houston:

• Earliest 100-degree day: June 2, 2011
• Average first 100-degree day: July 24
• Average number of 100-degree days: 5-7

It does not appear as though we will see any 100-degree days this week, although we can’t entirely rule that out. Mid-90s are most likely, however.

Tuesday

Today will see a pretty healthy chance of storms; with a combination of daytime heating in the mid-90s for most of the region, plenty of atmospheric moisture, and an upper level disturbance sliding into the area this afternoon and evening. High resolution models suggest the better rain potential will be to the east of Interstate 45, but truthfully the entire region will see at least 40 to 50 percent rain chances, especially from about 3pm to 10pm. We probably will see a few bullseyes above 1 inch, with more widespread average of a few tenths of an inch. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s, with very warm conditions along the coast—Galveston established a record high minimum Monday with a morning low of only 84 degrees, breaking the previous record of 83 degrees set in 2013.

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Based upon an average of temperatures from 1980 through 2010, which establish so-called “normal” temperatures for the Houston region, the very warmest time of year runs from July 27 through August 20. During this 3.5-week period the average high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport is 95 degrees, and the low is 75 degrees. (The comparable period for Hobby is July 22 through August 22). These are the absolute dog days of summer, with hot, humid days, and warm, sultry nights. However, there are some distinct signs that fall is not all that far away, most notably our shortening days—our 13 hour, 37 minute length of day now is nearly 30 minutes shorter than a month ago at the solistice.

Monday

We don’t have great confidence in the forecast for this morning, however we do expect less coverage in showers and thunderstorms than the region saw Sunday, when a few areas south (hello Pearland!) and southeast of the city saw up to 1.5 inches under fairly strong storms. Rain chances today will probably be less than 20 percent, with isolated, mostly short-lived storms. Highs will likely climb into the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Lows Monday night will only fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rain chances will be a little higher on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a bit more of a disturbed upper atmosphere helping to force some lift at the surface. I’d peg rain chances at both days around 40 percent for areas between Interstate 10 and the coast, and 30 percent for inland areas. On average, accumulations will be less than one-half an inch, but there probably will be some outliers that pick up more. Highs in the mid-90s.

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For July, the weather outside today and tonight will be amazing. Under the influence of gloriously dry air, we’ll see comfortable conditions for the next few days before more summer-like weather returns. We’ll also touch on the tropics in today’s post, although right now we don’t really see anything to worry about.

Wednesday

Temperatures have generally fallen into the low 70s this morning, and despite full sunshine today we don’t expect highs to get much above the upper-80s today. (Normally a mostly sunny day in July would be 5 to 10 degrees warmer). Winds will be out of the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Under the influence of this northerly flow, dewpoints this afternoon will be in the 40s (to the west) and 50s (in Houston), which will completely obliterate most of our region’s characteristic humidity. Expect very fine weather this evening, with lows in the upper 60s for inland areas. We may approach the record low temperature for July 24, 68 degrees, at Bush Intercontinental Airport, this evening. Don’t miss the fine weather.

Thursday

Another very fine day, a lot like Wednesday, although probably a touch less dry and a touch more humid.

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Pinch yourself, Houston. It’s July. It’s the beginning of the very hottest time of the year. And remarkably, it’s going to feel somewhat dry outside.

A bonafide front pushed through the region during the overnight hours, and into the Gulf of Mexico. Now we aren’t going to see significant cooling during the daytime with this front—the ground is just too warm, the sun is too high in the sky for too long, and there just isn’t that cool of an air mass over the southern United States during the middle of summer. But what we will see is a northerly flow and significantly drier air. You’ll begin to feel this tonight, and it will be pretty amazing for this time of year.

Tuesday

The front blew through with only scattered showers. The high-resolution models had been trending drier, and the bulk of the storm activity remained offshore. The same models are indicating we may see some brief redevelopment this morning between Interstate 10 and the coast, but after that the atmosphere should really begin to dry out. Highs today will be around 90 degrees with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Skies will clear later today or this evening, and lows should get down to around 70 for most of Houston.

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