Eric Berger

Houston enjoyed a sunny day on Tuesday, and we’ve got a couple of more to go before some rain chances return this weekend. But don’t worry, we’re not expecting anything too extreme.

Wednesday

With high pressure in place, we anticipate another partly to mostly sunny day today, with highs touching 90 degrees for many parts of the region. Some areas west and northwest of Houston may even reach highs in the mid-90s, which is pretty extreme for late September, even in Texas. Normal highs for late September are the upper 80s. Rain chances are near zero.

Thursday

This should be a day similar to Wednesday, with hot conditions and rain chances likely 10 percent or less. Summer marches onward, it seems.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The pattern changes, subtly at least, this weekend. High pressure will retreat eastward, opening up Texas to more of a southerly flow of moisture. This will increase rain chances, and introduce the possibility of thunderstorms. But for the most part, we expect these storms to pop up, die out, and move on. Overall accumulations for almost everyone should be one-half inch or rain, or less, although a few storms may become fairly intense for a time. Rain chances on any individual day should be less than 50 percent. And skies, for the most part, should be sunny. Highs will be around 90 degrees.

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Good morning. Another round of surprisingly nasty showers popped up on Monday—I know because about 2.5 inches fell in short order right on top of my home—but we should be done with that for awhile. We should remain in a more or less late summer pattern for the next 10 days or so, after which time we can probably reasonably expect a cold front to be near at hand. We also discuss the tropics today, which you really should not be worrying about.

Tuesday

Today should be hot and sunny. With high pressure building from the east and a drying atmosphere, rain chances should fall back to near zero. Highs will be around 90 degrees, with lows tonight in the low 70s. It’s not fall, certainly, but at least it’s not the dead of summer.

Wednesday and Thursday

These days should bring more of the same, with only very slight rain chances and mostly sunny skies. Again, expect high temperatures of around 90 degrees with good drying-out weather for the region.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The high pressure ridge that will bring hot and sunny weather this week will back off some heading into the weekend, opening up the region to somewhat more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By no means are we looking at a washout—however each day will likely carry 30 to 40 percent chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overall accumulations will likely run under one-half inch for most, and the days will likely be partly to mostly sunny. Highs, of course, will remain around 90 degrees.

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Today marks the autumnal equinox, which means it is the first day of fall. But Houston has felt anything like fall so far this September, as low temperatures have rarely fallen below 75 degrees. The city has yet to see its first real fall cool front—which for the purposes of Houston we define as a daily minimum of 65 degrees or cooler. As you can see on the chart below, the first fall front typically comes around September 16th, or one week ago. The bad news is that there is no front on Houston’s horizon for the next week or so, but the good news that I don’t think we’ll quite break 2005’s record, and have to wait all the way until October 7th. More below.

Monday

On Sunday, some nasty but very localized storms developed in northwest Houston along Cypress Creek near the Willowbrook area. We’re going to see the potential for similar storms today, although there should be a bit more south-to-north motion as moisture streams in from the Gulf of Mexico. Overall rain chances are about 50 percent, and while accumulations for most will be under one-half inch, we can’t rule out some isolated thunderstorms bringing a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain. High temperatures should be near 90 degrees.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

As high pressure extends its reach over the Houston area, we should see rain chances drop back to around 10 to 20 percent for each of the mid-week days. Accordingly, we should see high temperatures around 90 degrees, with overnight lows in the low- to mid-70s. Mostly sunny skies should really help the area dry out after Tropical Storm Imelda’s nastiness.

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As anticipated, the greater Houston area radar has quieted down considerably with the loss of daytime heating. And thank goodness for that.

During the overnight hours we can’t rule out development of additional showers and thunderstorms, but we’d expect these to be fairly scattered and are not particularly concerned about additional, prolonged heavy rain. We just do not anticipate anything too organized getting going—although Lord knows Imelda has surprised us. Rain chances are probably a little higher to the east of Interstate 45 tonight, but again we don’t expect accumulations to be more than about a quarter of an inch where rain does fall.

We are well beyond the worst of Imelda, but we’re likely to see a decent chance of scattered storms on Friday, with chances diminishing further into the weekend. We should see mostly sunny days with highs in the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday, which sounds pretty darn nice after all we’ve been through. Matt will have a comprehensive update in the morning.