Eric Berger

Good morning. A cold front is moving into the western part of Houston this morning, and should push through most of the city this afternoon. The two issues related to the front are rainfall today and tonight, and then very cold air moving in behind the front to end this week.

Wednesday

High temperatures today ahead of the front should reach about 70 degrees for most. This morning a very narrow wedge of cooler air at the surface will push into Houston, and this will filter through the region. For the most part, rain showers during the daytime hours appear likely to be fast moving, and relatively brief—right now we do not anticipate the very heavy, organized rain we saw Tuesday in locations such as Tomball and The Woodlands. However, since that rainfall was not well forecast I do not have particularly high confidence in rain forecasts for the next 24 hours.

Wednesday night

The rest of the front, meaning a much deeper mass of colder air from higher up in the atmosphere, will push through Houston tonight, and this will drive the potential for some heavier rain, most likely between about 10pm Wednesday and 6am Thursday, moving from inland areas toward the coast. Again, these showers shouldn’t last too long, but some areas may have the potential for 1-3 inches. (Most of Houston will likely see less than 1 inch of rain). Temperatures Wednesday night will get down to around 40 degrees for most locations.

See full post

Houston’s low temperature last touched the 30s back on April 2nd, the last gasp of winter. After that, the region’s nighttime temperatures never got below the mid-40s again, and then summer came to town. Now, it appears as though much of Houston may briefly slip into the upper 30s at the end of this week, and daytime highs will feel more like mid-winter than fall.

Tuesday

Conditions today will be mostly cloudy, fairly muggy, with intermittent light rain. A cold front will get past the Interstate 35 corridor in central Texas, but stop well short of the Houston area. This means that we should have relatively mild weather today and tonight—if your plans involve a certain baseball team and much-hoped for revelry there is good news. It appears likely that any daytime or early evening showers should wane by 9 or 10pm tonight. Temperatures likely will not fall below 70 degrees Tuesday night.

Wednesday

It’s cold front day! Atmospheric dynamics over the central United States will essentially shove the front toward the coast on Wednesday. What time will it move through Houston? Great question. Our best guess is that it pushes through Houston during the late afternoon hours and off the coast shortly after sunset, but confidence in the exact timing is low. Basically, we can expect conditions to get fairly warm on Wednesday ahead of the front—upper 70s?—and quite cold and breezy in its wake.

The other story to follow will be rainfall, and most of this should come during a period from Wednesday after noon through early Thursday. I think much of the region will probably get 0.5 to 1.5 inches, but there could be some outliers that pick up as much as 3 inches. Still, we do not have a real high concern for even street flooding at this time. Whenever the front passes through, there will be the threat of strong winds and light hail. So if there is a Game 7 of the World Series, we may have some concerns about weather going into, or coming home from the game. Hopefully a win tonight obviates these concerns.

See full post

I hope everyone enjoyed that incredible weekend, as our weather this week will involve a number of tricks to go along with a few treats. What we are increasingly confident of is that conditions will probably dry out before Thursday afternoon or evening, with the most likely scenario of cool, breezy, and dry weather for trick-or-treating. Warm costumes are recommended for the kids.

Monday

The onshore flow has kicked into gear, but today should still be a pretty nice one across the Houston area, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs holding to around 80 degrees. Increasing moisture levels will lead to a fairly cloudy night, and as a result low temperatures tonight will not fall much below 70 degrees for most of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As the amount of moisture in the atmosphere rises, we’ll see a corresponding increase in rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Rain chances on Tuesday will be fairly high, without about two-thirds of the area probably seeing light showers. If you’re heading to the Astros game Tuesday evening, however, we think any daytime rainfall will probably wane by or before game time. Post-game temperatures will be around 70 degrees.

The heavier rainfall will hold off until Wednesday—most likely during the afternoon or overnight hours. In terms of accumulation, we can probably expect between 0.5 to 1.5 inches for most areas through Thursday morning, although we cannot rule out greater accumulations. Highs both days will be around 80 degrees. Let’s hope the Astros wrap the series up Tuesday, because Wednesday evening could definitely a bit wet for any revelry.

See full post

Good morning. Muggier weather will briefly return on Thursday before a cold front pushes into Houston on Friday morning. This frontal passage will bring some fairly heavy rainfall to the region from about midnight Thursday through noon Friday, before much cooler air arrives for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday should be brilliantly fall-like.

Thursday

Breezy conditions today will help pull moisture into the region, but we should still see partly sunny skies this morning. (A coastal flood advisory is in effect due to the pronounced onshore flow). High temperatures will likely get into the low 80s, limited later this afternoon by some developing clouds. Some scattered showers are possible later today, but for the most part any heavy rain should hold off until tonight, probably at least a couple of hours after sunset.

Thursday night through Friday morning

The cold front should reach College Station by around 10pm Thursday night, push into Houston a couple of hours after midnight, and move off the coast before sunrise. The combination of the front, ample Gulf moisture, and favorable dynamics in the upper atmosphere will help generate a broad line of showers and thunderstorms as the front pushes slowly to the southeast. Most parts of the Houston area will likely see 1 to 2 inches of rain between midnight and noon, although we can’t rule out few isolated areas—most likely in Liberty and Galveston counties—seeing up to 4 inches.

See full post