Eric Berger

The overall pattern remains more or less the same. We’re going to have one more potentially wet day—although as we saw Tuesday, these showers are most definitely hit or miss—before things begin to dry out on the Fourth of July and then remain that way for awhile.

Wednesday

We’re still feeling the effects of tropical moisture pushing in from the Gulf of Mexico, and some of the high-resolution models are fairly bullish on rain totals for today. But at the same time, there’s no significant forcing to really generate sustained, heavy rainfall. So I think like we saw Tuesday, there may be a few isolated areas that see 3 inches of rain, but for the most part, most of the city should see 1 inch of rain or less. In any case, the biggest threat is probably some brief street flooding. We’ve got one more day with potential highs in the 80s before Houston begins to experience more typical summertime heat.

Fourth of July

Rain chances for Houston will fall down to below 20 percent, but we can’t entirely rule out some daytime showers. An atmospheric disturbance will linger north of the region, so areas along and north of Texas 105 may see better rain chances during the daytime. With partly sunny skies, highs probably will get into the low 90s for most of Houston. Almost everyone should see partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 80s, and no rain for fireworks.

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With a moist moist airmass moving inland on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, we can expect elevated rain chances for a couple of days before high pressure settles in over the region. From July 4th through much of next week, Houston should see serene, hot, and sunny weather.

Tuesday

It’s a sultry morning, as one might expect during early July in Houston, with lows only in the upper 70s. The radar should remain fairly sedate until around 11am or noon, when the combination of daytime heating and those increased moisture levels start to produce fairly widespread, moderate-to-strong thunderstorms. Most of the area will probably see less than 1 inch of rain today, but there probably will be some bullseyes that receive 2 to 3 inches. Favored areas are probably south of Interstate 10, with perhaps the heaviest rain focused on Brazoria County. We’re always a little concerned about the potential with this kind of tropical moisture during the summer months, but as of now there don’t appear to be any forcings to really produce sustained, heavy rainfall that could lead to more than brief street flooding.

Storms should wind down from 6pm to 9pm with the loss of daytime heating. High temperatures today will either be in the upper 80s or low 90s, depending on the extent of rain for your area.

Wednesday

This should be a similar day to Tuesday, albeit with perhaps a bit less coverage. I’ll feel more confident in Wednesday’s forecast after we see what happens on Tuesday.

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A somewhat wet weekend has come and gone in Houston. Parts of the city, such as the area between Memorial City and Katy, received almost no rain, whereas separate locations near Alvin and Bush Intercontinental Airport received up to 3 inches. The sunshine on Sunday afternoon felt pretty nice.

For this week, we can expect some more wet weather—although frankly, the scattered reports I’ve seen of a “tropical wave” or other language to suggest a serious flooding threat is headed this way are significantly overstated—before drying conditions later in the week. See below for a full outlook for the July 4th holiday.

Monday

Conditions today should be fairly mild for the first day of July, with highs of around 90 degrees and partly to mostly sunny skies. With daytime heating we may see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up later this afternoon, but coverage probably will only be in the 10 to 20 percent range. Lows tonight should get into the mid-70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The region will fall under the influence of a more moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico, and this will lead to increased rain chances for Tuesday, Tuesday night, and most of the day Wednesday. Right now there doesn’t appear to be too much to drive organization of these storms, and models indicate most of the area will see 0.25 to 1.0 inch of rain, with a few bullseyes of heavier rain where 1 to 3 inches may fall fairly quickly given the tropical nature of the moisture. These will be partly to mostly cloudy days, and the intermittent rain showers should limit highs to the upper 80s for most areas.

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