Eric Berger

Well Houston, we’ve made it to the end of another work week, and it is now day two of August, 2019. The calendar informs me we have 30 more days until we reach September, and at least the potential for a fall cool front. Unfortunately, for at least the next week or 10 days it’s going to feel very much like August outside—especially during the latter half of next week.

Friday

If you liked the weather conditions on Thursday, then you’re in luck, because Friday is going to be similar. High temperatures will nudge up into the mid-90s, with partly sunny skies. Light winds will offer no relief from the heat. Humidity will be the usual for Houston in summer.

Beginning around 2pm and running through about 8pm we should see showers pulse up across the Houston area as the sea breeze nudges inland. Perhaps about one-third of the region will see rain from these scattered storms, and amounts will vary from between a few drops and perhaps one-half inch or more. Any storms should wind down this evening, with another warm night for the region on tap.

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Welcome to August. You should know the drill by now, Houston. There are basically two weather patterns for this month—high pressure and suffocating heat, or a lack of high pressure and the threat of heavy, tropical rainfall. For the first 10 days of the month, at least, we’re going to lean more toward the former pattern.

Thursday

Houston lies on the periphery of a high pressure system centered mostly over northern Texas and Oklahoma, and this will continue to allow for the development of mostly coastal showers again later today. Rain chances are about 10 percent on the north side of Interstate 10, and perhaps 30 percent closer to the coast. Storms that do develop should not persist for all that long. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid-90s.

Friday

Another day like Thursday, although rain chances probably will back off such that almost the entire area will be dry, with highs in the mid-90s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will remain calm to very light, only a few miles per hour out of the east or southeast. The lack of wind will make conditions feel even warmer than they are.

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While we expected some storms to develop on Tuesday afternoon, we did not quite anticipate how intense they would be—especially on the southeast side of town where frequent lightning lit the sky, and hail fell from it. Some parts of Friendswood and the Clear Lake area picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain in less than two hours. Meanwhile, parts of northwestern Harris County saw zero rainfall for their troubles. Conditions should be more sedate today, with a drying pattern beginning Thursday through most of the weekend.

Wednesday

Rain showers have developed offshore this morning, and the axis for heavier rainfall appears to be about 50 to 100 miles to the south today. While we expect that some storms will migrate inland later today, they are most likely to be confined to counties immediately along the coast, such as Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers. Areas north of Interstate 10 will probably see 20 percent rain chances, while they increase to 30 to 50 percent along the coast.

Accumulations should be less than 1 inch for all but a few isolated areas, and storms should pulse downward during the evening hours. Otherwise, expect a warm day, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Thursday

This should be a more typical summer day in Houston, with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze, during the afternoon, but nothing too organized. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s.

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As noted Monday, Houston has reached the peak of summer. However, we’ve yet to record any 100-degree days. The highest mark recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport has been 97 degrees, which the city has reached three times. This isn’t all that abnormal, as we usually see most of our 100-degree days in the coming month or so. But still, it is another indicator that, so far at least, conditions for Houston during the summer of 2019 have been fairly moderate. With that in mind, here is some 100-degree day climatology for the city of Houston:

• Earliest 100-degree day: June 2, 2011
• Average first 100-degree day: July 24
• Average number of 100-degree days: 5-7

It does not appear as though we will see any 100-degree days this week, although we can’t entirely rule that out. Mid-90s are most likely, however.

Tuesday

Today will see a pretty healthy chance of storms; with a combination of daytime heating in the mid-90s for most of the region, plenty of atmospheric moisture, and an upper level disturbance sliding into the area this afternoon and evening. High resolution models suggest the better rain potential will be to the east of Interstate 45, but truthfully the entire region will see at least 40 to 50 percent rain chances, especially from about 3pm to 10pm. We probably will see a few bullseyes above 1 inch, with more widespread average of a few tenths of an inch. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s, with very warm conditions along the coast—Galveston established a record high minimum Monday with a morning low of only 84 degrees, breaking the previous record of 83 degrees set in 2013.

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