Eric Berger

The first 10 days of February have been mostly cloudy, with intermittent light rain showers. Monday will be no different, but after a cold front sweeps through Houston tonight, we should finally have a stretch of drier weather, with several days of partly to mostly sunny skies. The coming weekend, for a change, also looks quite nice in terms of temperatures and sunshine.

Monday

In advance of the front, muggy and warm air is holding sway, and because of this we’re again seeing some areas of fog where this warmer air is moving over cooler waters. Skies again today will be cloudy, with scattered, light showers during the daytime. Rain chances improve later this afternoon and during the evening hours, as low pressure ahead of the cold front moves into Houston. Accumulations likely will be highest near the coast, where there is the most moisture to work with, and as much as 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain could fall. Severe weather is unlikely with the frontal passage.

Tuesday and Wednesday

This time, the front will be deep enough to scour clouds from the region. Tuesday, and at least part of Wednesday, should see partly to mostly sunny skies. These will be fine winter days, with highs in the low- to mid-60s. Tuesday night will be cool, perhaps getting down to around 40 in Houston, but by Wednesday night things will be warming up as the onshore flow resumes.

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The region’s anomalous warmth continued on Wednesday, as the city set a record high temperature of 82 degrees for February 6, breaking the mark of 81 degrees set in 2017. This also marked the first time Houston recorded a daytime temperature of 80 degrees or warmer this year. Lows this morning have only dropped down to around 70 degrees—more typical of late May or early June than this time of year—but this mid-winter warm spell will finally end today as a cold front sweeps through the area.

Thursday

Patchy fog has developed near the coast this morning, but for the most part coverage is thin inland due to some moderate surface winds mixing things up. The front should reach areas northwest of the region this morning, push through the city itself around noon-ish, and move off the coast this afternoon. In terms of rainfall, we’re still looking 1 to 3 tenths of an inch of rain, with the potential for some thunderstorms near the frontal passage. It’s probably not a bad idea to send your kids to school with a sweater for this afternoon, but temperatures aren’t really going to start falling until around sunset. Winds will gust this evening at or above 20mph, and lows Thursday night will drop into the low 40s, generally.

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Houston appears to have set a record for a “high minimum” temperature on Tuesday, February 5th, when the low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport only fell to 68 degrees—breaking the mark of 67 degrees set in 1927. This morning temperatures are warmer still at the airport, with lows only bottoming out at 71 degrees as of 6:15am. Another record minimum therefore seems likely, and Wednesday’s high temperature may well threaten the daily high for February 6 (81 degrees, set in 2017). A front on Thursday will abruptly end the anomalous warmth.

Wednesday

We can expect another warm and mostly gray day, much like we’ve already experienced this week in Houston. Highs should reach the upper 70s across the region, although we can’t rule out Houston’s first 80-degree mark if there are enough breaks in the clouds this afternoon. Slight rain chances will linger, but they should be only 10 to 20 percent for most of the area, with very light accumulations. Mostly just gray and warm today therefore, with south winds on the order of 10 to 15mph.

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Dense fog is again the story this morning, as very warm air temperatures in the mid-60s overrun run nearshore sea surface temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler. It will take some time for the fog to burn off, perhaps not until late morning for some areas. We can expect foggy mornings (and nights) through Thursday morning before a cold front snaps the region back into more seasonal temperatures.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The next two days should more or less be carbon copies of Monday, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s and lows only falling into the 60s. Some very light, very scattered showers are possible both days, but for the most part we should just see clouds. Perhaps the only notable change will be an increase in southerly winds on Wednesday, as lower pressures over the central United States bring winds up to 15 or 20mph.

Thursday

A cold front remains on track to push through Houston on Thursday, likely during the middle of the day. Rain chances will increase Wednesday night and Thursday morning ahead of the front, but again, accumulations don’t look too serious, with most parts of the area perhaps picking up two or three tenths of an inch. A few brief-lived thunderstorms will be possible. By Thursday afternoon or evening, rains should end as much colder and drier air blows in, bringing nighttime lows into the low 40s for most of Houston.

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