Eric Berger

Another cold and frosty morning for the region, with a light freeze for areas north of Houston, including Conroe and Huntsville, and mid- to upper-30s in the city itself. We’ll now see a moderate warming trend through Thursday, before another (quite blustery, as it turns out) front pushes into the area. This weekend looks spectacular for December—especially Sunday.

Tuesday

After the chilly start today, we should warm into the lower or even mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. A wind shift to the southeast will aid in the warm-up, and this onshore flow will also keep temperatures tonight a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Monday night. Skies turn partly cloudy tonight.

Wednesday

As the onshore flow does its thing, we’ll see a corresponding increase in moisture levels, and our partly cloudy skies will become mostly cloudy. This should limit highs to the upper-60s during the daytime, and we likely won’t see much of a cooldown during the evening hours. Some light showers will be possible later during the afternoon or evening, but probably will hold off until later.

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After an oh-so-gray weekend, skies have finally cleared out overnight and this has allowed temperatures to fall to near-freezing north of Houston, into the upper 30s for most of the city, and mid-40s along the coast. With light northwesterly winds out there, it’s quite cold this morning.

Monday

High pressure will dominate our weather today, and although skies will be mostly sunny, temperatures probably won’t rise much out of the mid-50s. Low temperatures on Monday night should be similar to Sunday night, so it will be another one for fireplaces and heaters.

Tuesday

This should be another sunny day, and start out a lot like Monday. However, as high pressure moves off, winds will return from the south or southeast later in the day, and this should moderate overnight temperatures. Lows Tuesday night probably will not fall below 50 degrees as the warmer Gulf of Mexico air mass exerts its influence.

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Just a quick midnight update on the state-of-play with Houston’s storms…

A heavy round of showers has now pushed east of the metro region, moving along the coast and toward Beaumont. Behind that, the front (with much lower dewpoints) is pushing into southeast Houston. And behind the front, there’s another area of fairly heavy storms moving east-northeast. We think this is probably the last really burst-y area of storms that will affect Houston tonight. After this, from 2am or 3am onward, we should see some additional light to moderate rainfall, but this too should peter out by around sunrise or shortly thereafter.

We’re still concerned about the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, which we mentioned earlier, and South Mayde Creek and Langham Creek in Western Harris County are out of their banks and spilling into nearby streets and parks, according to the Harris County Flood Control District. Elsewhere, bayous and creeks are holding.

This is almost over, so hang tight, and lets begin to dry out come sunrise.

Good evening. We’re continuing to monitor conditions across the metro area and rainfall totals remain manageable for most of the region. We have two main concerns: flooding along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, and the potential for more heavy rainfall later tonight as a main line of at least semi-organized storms moves through. Overall, most of Houston will come through this just fine, we believe.

San Jacinto River

The West Fork of the San Jacinto River, which is downstream of some of the heaviest rainfall today, may potentially go into major flood stage on Saturday or Sunday. According to the Harris County Flood Control District, the following subdivisions may see impacts: Forest Cove, Rivercrest, Northshore, Belleau Woods. Kingwood and Atascocita appear unlikely to be affected at this time.

Main line of storms

So far today, rainfall amounts for most of the metro area have remained near 2 inches or less (we’ve seen more than this up north, in some parts of Montgomery County and elsewhere). These are quite manageable for area bayous.

As of 8:45pm CT we are seeing storms get organized just west and north of Houston, and from now until about 3am CT we are likely to see the potential for additional heavy rainfall as this mass of storms moves through, from west to east along with the front. Conditions will likely deteriorate for much of Houston over the next hour or two, so now is the time to be wrapping up any activities and getting home.

Most areas may see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall from now through 3am—which should be fine for most bayous—although a few areas may see a bit more than this. After 3am we should see a slackening in rainfall on the west side of the metro area, and then a gradual ending beginning shortly before sunrise from west to east.

Saturday will be gray, and chilly, with highs in the 50s and blustery northerly winds.

We will update later tonight if warranted.