Eric Berger

As summer continues in Houston, so do the warmer temperatures. According to the National Weather Service, through the first five days of this month, Houston has had its second warmest start to a June on record, and Galveston its third warmest. I wish I could tell you that we’re going to see significant relief from the heat in the days ahead, but this is a reality-based website. So, nah. At best we’ll probably fall back a couple of degrees closer to normal temperatures.

Wednesday

We have an interesting weather pattern across the region today that may just allow some areas to see some needed rain showers. Unsettled weather off to our southeast, and northeast, may slide back toward the region later this morning. As the region heats up today I think we’re going to see some scattered showers in the vicinity of Houston, which should be a bit more likely to the east of Interstate 45. Rain chances are probably only in the 20 to 30 percent range, but that is certainly better than the next two days. Highs should remain in the mid-90s. Any showers should end this evening, with the loss of daytime heating.

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With highs generally in the mid-90s, and lows in the upper-70s, temperatures so far this month are running about 5 degrees above normal for early June. We’re probably going to remain in this warmer-than-normal pattern for about another week before we see the potential for temperatures to back off some next week, and rain chances to increase.

Tuesday

Some storms will be possible today, but like on Monday pretty much all of the action should be north-northeast of the region because that’s where the atmospheric disturbances will be most pronounced. The following forecast from the HRRR model is representative of this kind of thinking, showing the potential for isolated, but very gusty storms.

I think, for the most part, we can simply expect another mostly sunny and hot day in Houston, with high temperatures around 95 for most of the area and a few degrees cooler right along the coast.

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Parts of Houston experienced storms on Sunday evening as convection fired along a boundary, and moved from east to west. It was feast or famine—areas near downtown received 1 inch of rain quickly, while areas northwest and southeast of Houston got no rain at all. The good news is that, unlike last week, we will have some scattered rain chances this week as high pressure it not full able to assert itself over the region’s weather.

Monday

Rain chances will remain today, especially for the northern half of the area, as moisture levels remain high and the atmosphere is somewhat unstable. Like Sunday, the storms should be most prevalent during the afternoon and evening hours with daytime heating, and they’re probably going to be hit-or-miss again. In addition to briefly heavy rainfall, we’re also going to need to watch for damaging winds and perhaps a little hail. One thing we’re sure not to miss out on is heat and humidity, with highs in the mid-90s for the most part.

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It’s sunny and hot out there on Sunday afternoon, but an approaching (weak) front should provoke some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. We think a lot of the region won’t see more than some clouds, but for the parts of the region that do see storms they could be strong, with some brief heavy rain and winds.

Storms are most likely to form north of Interstate 10 later today as the precipitating front is presently only sagging into counties north of Houston. Most of the higher-resolution forecast models aren’t overly bullish on storms, however moisture levels are high enough, and there’s potentially enough instability, that the environment seems right for at least a few thunderstorms to develop.

The bottom line is that if you see storms forming nearby, it’s best to take cover if possible. They probably won’t last long.