Eric Berger

Sunday update on this weekend’s heavy rain and the tropical threat

In regard to rainfall and the Houston metro area, we have two separate issues to discuss. There is the potential for heavy rainfall on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday; and then the renewed potential for heavy rain toward next weekend, as a tropical disturbance—perhaps Tropical Storm Gordon—brings rainfall to the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

A satellite image from Sunday morning showing both systems. (NOAA/Space City Weather)

Labor Day Weekend

A weak low pressure system over southern Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico will drift westward over the next few days, bringing an excellent chance of rain to the Houston metro area on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The National Weather Service will issue a “Flash Flood Watch,” and there is a general expectation of 1 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated areas seeing as much as 8 inches. The best chance for heavy rainfall will come on Sunday night, and throughout Labor Day. If you have travel plans on Monday, please to check conditions before venturing out. For the most part we expect street flooding, but can’t rule out some more serious effects in areas where the storms establish themselves and don’t really move.

Synopsis of Labor Day weekend rain. (National Weather Service)

We have reasonable confidence that after this system clears the area, we should see somewhat drier conditions on Wednesday and Thursday for Houston, with partly sunny skies and more scattered showers. Which is a good thing, because …

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Some kind of tropical system likely in the Gulf next week

Houston continues to face the prospect of a wet Labor Day Weekend—but we’re not concerned about anything more than the potential for some street flooding and spoiled outdoor barbecues with intermittent showers and thunderstorms.

However, we did want to update you on the potential for tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Some forecast models have become a little more bullish on low pressure forming in the northern Gulf next week, which could lead to development of a tropical storm. As of Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm will form during the next five days.

Tropical Weather Outlook. (National Hurricane Center)

There are a lot of uncertainties with this system, and forecast models are having a difficult time resolving them. Of course, everyone will want to know where this will go. However, that’s simply impossible to say without a reasonably well defined low pressure system, and that probably won’t exist for a couple of days.

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Lots of moisture in store for Texas, but no specific threats

Some parts of the greater Houston region received heavy showers on Wednesday, with several readers reporting upwards of 3 inches of rainfall in an hour. Other areas within the metro area saw no rain at all, just distant lightning. Rain coverage should back off a little bit today and Friday before more widespread showers likely return this weekend. As moisture moves into the Gulf, this pattern should continue.

Rainfall accumulations on Wednesday in Houston. (Harris County Flood Warning Service)

Thursday and Friday

Some slightly drier air has moved into the atmosphere, and this may help dampen—oops, wrong word there, I should probably say reduce—shower chances for the next two days. That is not to say it won’t rain, but rather that instead of 50 to 60 percent rain chances, it probably will be more like 30 to 40 percent, with the lower likelihoods inland, and slightly better chances near the coast. Highs will depend on local conditions, but will probably range from 90 to 95 degrees.

Saturday

By Saturday, the pattern will begin to shift toward wetter weather again, a the upper air pattern again favors the movement of more moisture into the Texas coast. Saturday doesn’t appear to be too waterlogged at this point, and it should be at least partly sunny. However, especially during the afternoon hours, there probably will be a healthy amount of showers and thunderstorms popping up across the Houston area. Highs in the low 90s.

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Stormy pattern through Labor Day weekend, eyeing the Gulf

Houston remains in a wetter, slightly cooler pattern that will see up-and-down rain chances through the Labor Day weekend. As we near the heart of hurricane season we’re continuing to expect activity to ramp up in the tropics, including possibly the Gulf of Mexico, but see no specific threats at this time. We’ll discuss that a bit more below.

Wednesday

Lower pressure draped over the region today, combined with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, should induce some pretty healthy rain chances for Houston (probably around 50 percent), especially during the afternoon hours. Because of some unstable air, where thunderstorms form, they could become severe, bringing the threat of strong wind gusts and lots of lightning. Some slow moving thunderstorms could quickly dump and inch of rain, or so. Highs will depend upon localized conditions, and should vary from the upper-80s to mid-90s.

For late August, these are not bad high temperatures for Wednesday in Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances fall back a bit, especially for inland areas. I still think coastal counties and the southern half of Harris County will see 40 or 50 percent rain chances, but they will be lower for other areas. Partly sunny skies should allow high temperatures for most areas to push into the mid-90s.

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