Tropics quiet, but that probably changes in early August

Aside from the local excitement over Tropical Storm Cindy, the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a quiet one for Texas. That’s not surprising, as about 90 percent of all tropical activity during a given season occurs after this point during hurricane season. Basically, then, June and July are often just a prelude for the heart of hurricane season—August and September. And as we get close to August this year, a key signal suggests busier days may lie just ahead.

One measure of this activity in the atmosphere is “potential velocity,” which is rather complicated to compute, but essentially this is a useful indicator of rising air and a better chance for tropical systems to form. In the graphic below, we can see the potential velocity (VP) anomaly for this week (top), and the first week of August (bottom). Note the dramatic shift from a positive anomaly (which is bad for hurricanes) to a negative one over the tropical Atlantic, between Africa and the United States.

Potential velocity anomaly for this week (top) and first week of August. (Tropical Tidbits)

This does not guarantee the development of a hurricane by any means. But it does suggest that as we approach the traditional peak of hurricane season, meteorological factors may also be improving for storm formation. In any case, it is the time to make your final preparations for hurricane season. Now, onto the forecast.

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J.J. Watt sums up Houston’s weather

One of the finest football players of his generation, J.J. Watt, may have been drafted by the Houston Texans in 2011. But on Wednesday we can safely say that he truly became one of us, for he has grasped one of the core truths about living along he Upper Texas coast.


Watt, presumably, was caught in one of those isolated downpours on Wednesday that deluged a small area of the city, while a block away it was perfectly sunny.

Thursday and Friday

Houston lies on the southern periphery of a high pressure system, and therefore rain showers will likely be few and far between to end the work week. There’s still enough moisture to produce a few downpours, but for the most part the bigger story is going to be heat, with highs in the mid-90s and humidity pushing the heat index over 100 degrees. These days will be very warm, so prepare for outdoor activities accordingly.

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E-mail subscriptions for Space City Weather

This is just a quick note to test the e-mail subscription feature for the site. When we moved servers last week, we couldn’t immediately move the subscriber list with us. That meant we went from more than 2,000 e-mail subscriptions down to zero. Some people have signed up since then.

Today I think we finally solved the problem of transferring the old e-mail addresses from our original server, so our subscriber list is back up over 2,000. But I’m not 100 percent sure what will happen if you signed up in the last week.

So this is a test. If you just get this e-mail once, perfect. If you receive it multiple times, click the “manage subscriptions” button at the bottom of this e-mail to pare back to one subscription. And if you didn’t receive an e-mail, and want to, sign up in box to the right of this post that says “Subscribe via e-mail.”

Thanks to everyone for their patience.

Buckle up: Next six weeks offer peak summer for Houston

We’ve reached the dog days of summer, and it sure feels like it across Houston. Traditionally the period of mid-July through the end of August is the warmest period for the region, with average high temperatures around 95 degrees, and overnight lows in the mid- to upper-70s. We’re now in that stretch of weather, and barring heavy rainstorms daily temperatures will be sizzling for the next six weeks or so. If we all hold hands, we just might make it to fall, because it’s not so terribly far away now.

We’re now in the warmest time of year for Houston. (National Weather Service)

Today

High pressure has begun to build to the north of the region, but there’s enough moisture near the coast to still produce some isolated downpours south of Interstate 10. For the most part, however, expect partly sunny skies, scattered light to moderate rain showers, and highs in the low to mid-90s.

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