Aside from the local excitement over Tropical Storm Cindy, the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been a quiet one for Texas. That’s not surprising, as about 90 percent of all tropical activity during a given season occurs after this point during hurricane season. Basically, then, June and July are often just a prelude for the heart of hurricane season—August and September. And as we get close to August this year, a key signal suggests busier days may lie just ahead.
One measure of this activity in the atmosphere is “potential velocity,” which is rather complicated to compute, but essentially this is a useful indicator of rising air and a better chance for tropical systems to form. In the graphic below, we can see the potential velocity (VP) anomaly for this week (top), and the first week of August (bottom). Note the dramatic shift from a positive anomaly (which is bad for hurricanes) to a negative one over the tropical Atlantic, between Africa and the United States.
This does not guarantee the development of a hurricane by any means. But it does suggest that as we approach the traditional peak of hurricane season, meteorological factors may also be improving for storm formation. In any case, it is the time to make your final preparations for hurricane season. Now, onto the forecast.