Eric Berger

It’s been a hot start to the month of July, with most parts of Houston seeing no rainfall. As high pressure shifts away from the area just a bit, that pattern will change over the next few days, with the return of at least some modest rain chances.

Today

A few scattered showers along the coast this morning will translate into some inland showers this afternoon along the sea breeze. For the most part, I don’t expect significant accumulations. Highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Friday

Atmospheric moisture levels appear likely to rise a bit, and this should lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Don’t expect a lot of rain. While isolated thunderstorms could produce an inch of rain or so, for the most part we are talking about one or two tenths of an inch of rain. Partly cloudy skies should limit high temperatures into the low 90s.

Saturday through Tuesday

The mid- and upper-level winds in the atmosphere should become slightly less favorable for precipitation during this period, and therefore rain coverage will likely be only 10 to 30 percent most days, with light accumulations. For the most part days will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

Wednesday and beyond

As we get into mid-July, some of the mid-range models suggest that high pressure will strengthen its hold on our weather. This means even hotter conditions—as we might expect during July and August—with highs in the mid- to possibly even upper-90s and mostly sunny skies. I hope that doesn’t come to pass, but it sure seems the most likely outcome at this point.

Posted at 7:30am CT on Thursday by Eric

Seven of the last 10 days of June had high temperatures of 90 degrees or below—perhaps offering a false hope that summer doesn’t get so hot in Houston. Alas, July has disabused us of this notion, with highs of 94, 94, 95, and finally 96 degrees on July 4th. This is summer as we know it in Houston, and not a whole lot will change over the next week aside from some increasing rain chances.

Wednesday and Thursday

The region will see some slight rain chances today and Thursday as the boundaries between air masses collide overhead. But while moisture levels in the atmosphere are creeping back up, they’re not particularly high for this time of year so don’t expect any kind of a washout. I suspect that some areas may see a quick tenth of an inch of rain, or two, but a lot of the area won’t see any rainfall at all during the next two days. Look for highs in the mid-90s, with overnight lows in the upper-70s.

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By Houston’s standards, June hasn’t been too bad. Temperatures are going to end up near normal, or slightly below normal for the month. And during the last week persistent clouds and on-and-off rain showers have generally kept high temperatures in the upper 80s. But all good things must come to an end, and for Houston that means the coming of summer proper, just as we get into July and August. These are always the hottest two months in Houston, and undoubtedly this will be the case in 2017.

My advice: If we all hold hands, and huddle underneath the trees for shade, we just might make it to September.

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Although Tropical Storm Cindy veered well to the east of the Houston metro area last week, a very moist tropical air mass remained in its wake. That, combined with lower pressures, has allowed for intermittent tropical downpours during the last five days across the Houston area, with some inches receiving as much as six inches of rain.

This pattern should continue for another day or two, before the region finally dries out heading into the weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday

With abundant moisture still hanging around, we’re going to continue to see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with the potential for heavy rainfall. Storm chances are greatest near the coast for the next couple of days, and like we’ve seen for much of this week, one part of Houston could quickly pick up 2 inches of rain while it doesn’t rain at all a few miles away. The upside of this tropical pattern is that high temperatures should remain in the upper 80s—quite pleasant for the end of June.

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