Eric Berger

Mother Nature spared much of the Houston metro area rainfall on Sunday, however with a very moist atmosphere in place we can expect a chance of episodic heavy rainfall for at least the first half of the coming week. This is what happens in July in Houston when there is no high pressure or capping inversion to inhibit tropical rain showers.

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday

Moisture levels are quite high in the atmosphere, with precipitable water values at 2.0 to 2.2 inches across the region. This means that if you measured the volume of water between the surface and outer space of a certain column of atmosphere, it would have a depth of around 2 inches. This is a lot, and tends to produce rainfall when there are no factors to stop it. For the start of this week there aren’t any—and in fact the upper-level atmosphere favors the development of some storms.

So what does this mean? We’re going to continue to see some potentially stormy days. Last week we talked about how some areas will see mostly sunny skies, some areas mostly gray skies, and some areas will get slow-moving tropical showers. That pattern will continue through Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, with some areas getting 2 to 3 inches of rain in a couple of hours, and others none. Rain chances are likely to be higher (around 50 percent) closer to the coast during the morning, and then the best chances will migrate inland during the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rains and lightning are the primary threats. The upside of potentially stormy days is that they should limit highs to around 90 degrees.

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Yesterday I was driving down Interstate 45 near Clear Lake. Within the span of two exits I went from full sunshine, to light rain, to some of the biggest rain drops I have ever seen. It was as if five of these raindrops hit my windshield, and it was covered with rain. And you know what? This is how summer goes in Houston when there’s not smothering high pressure to keep the tropical rain showers away.

Thursday and Friday

Houston will lie near the edge of a high pressure system to end the work week, so we’re likely to see some decrease in shower activity. However, I still expect some isolated to scattered activity, with the potential for some localized heavy rain. With mostly sunny skies, expect high temperatures in the mid-90s.

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Houston’s weather will more or less remain in the same pattern for the next few days, with some subtle variations, before high pressure begins to assert more control next week.

Wednesday and Thursday

These two days will be similar. The atmosphere remains moist across the Texas coast, but the eastern half of the metro area is a little more so, and that’s probably where the best rain chances will lie Wednesday and Thursday. We can again expect some areas to see hot and sunny conditions, while other parts of Houston see threatening clouds, and some areas actually see some heavy thunderstorms. All told, accumulations shouldn’t be significant enough to cause any kind of flooding. Highs should range from 90 to 95 degrees.

Friday

If you’re looking for drier weather this week, Friday’s probably the day. But we’re still going to see a decent chance of showers along with the sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will probably be quite warm, with highs in the mid-90s.

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This is one of those days that meteorologists dislike. Why? Because we’re going to be wrong. Let me explain.

Tuesday

Atmospheric moisture levels are pretty high, nowhere near record high, but certainly healthy. High pressure hasn’t established itself, so there’s nothing precluding rainfall today. At the same time, there’s no great forcing mechanism in the atmosphere to really drive rain showers. So what does that leave us? Probably about half of the metro area will see some rain. For most areas, this will probably be a quick shower. However, conditions are such that a few very strong, slow-moving thunderstorms may form, so some small areas could see rain bullseyes of 3 inches or so.

What a forecast, eh? You’re either going to get no rain, or three inches, or something in between.

And that’s before the temperatures. For areas that see mostly sunny skies, highs probably will reach the mid-90s. Areas that see rain—probably around 90 degrees. See our dilemma?

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