Eric Berger

Houston cools down, and the tropics heat up

This post will provide a brief forecast for the Houston area, which really has no weather concerns at all over the next week or 10 days, and then discuss the tropics, where two other storms have developed in addition to Hurricane Irma. With 185-mph winds, Irma continues to pose a grave threat to the Caribbean Islands and southeastern United States—but the forecast is a smidgen brighter for Florida this morning.

The tropics at around 6am CT Wednesday. They are … active. (NOAA)

Houston

Some isolated showers popped up earlier this morning ahead of the cool front, and a few more may develop later this morning and early afternoon as the front moves through the metro area. Nothing to be concerned about. After this we can expect amazing weather through at least Sunday or Monday—with mostly sunny skies, highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. High temperatures may finally get back up toward 90 degrees by the middle or end of next week, but rain chances will remain near zero.

Irma

The storm’s central pressure has continued to fall this morning (another measurement of intensity) but its winds have held steady at 185mph as it approaches Puerto Rico. The eye of Irma should pass just to the north of the island today. Here’s a look at the official forecast released by the National Hurricane Center at 4am CT:

(National Hurricane Center)

Clearly, this is a devastating forecast for Florida, essentially bringing the storm’s very worst winds and surge to an area from Miami to West Palm Beach. The storm would then continue up Florida’s spine, continuing to deliver punishing winds and waves to the eastern half of the state. However, it is equally important to note that we are discussing a forecast for conditions five days from now. Although hurricane forecasters are pretty good with forecast tracks, the average five-day error is still about 200 to 250 miles in terms of track.

See full post

Three scenarios for Hurricane Irma and the United States

If you’re only interested in Houston weather, you can skip this post. We are not going to see much rain over the next 10 days, and temperatures will generally be pleasantly cool for early September. However, we’ve had a lot of requests from readers to continue coverage of Hurricane Irma, due to the significant threat it presents to the United States. (Already, with winds of 185-mph, the storm is the second-strongest in the Atlantic basin on record). So that’s what we will provide here.

Having looked at the forecast model guidance that has come out during the last two hours, the we can have pretty high confidence in the hurricane’s track through about Friday, when it will be in the vicinity of Turks and Caicos (a beautiful area, which I hope survives this storm). After that I want to highlight three possible scenarios, neither of which I have particularly high confidence in as so many unanswered questions remain: When does Irma find the western periphery of the Atlantic high pressure system and turn north? Does it turn northwest, due north, or northeast? And how much does the storm’s center interact with Cuba? All of these questions will have profound effects.

See full post

Cold front coming, and Hurricane Irma reaches Cat. 5 status

A cold front remains on track to reach Houston on Wednesday, arriving a couple of weeks early to the region, and bringing some genuinely fall-like weather to the upper Texas coast. I’ll also discuss Hurricane Irma, because the storm has reached Category 5 status and almost certainly will have some devastating effects in the United States. We remain pretty confident the storm won’t have major effects for Texas, however.

Tuesday

We’ll still be pretty warm today, with highs in the low 90s across Houston, but for early September this is still decent weather. Houston could see some scattered showers later this afternoon, but for the most part we should be rain-free.

Wednesday

Cold front day! It’s almost like a holiday here in Houston. Moisture levels will increase a bit before the front moves through on Wednesday, most likely during the late morning or early afternoon hours. Some scattered showers are possible with the front—a few isolated areas could see as much as half an inch of rain—but for the most part this should be a breezy passage rather than one with thunder and lightning. Humidity should fall off a cliff after the front moves through, making for a pleasant evening.

Forecast map showing dewpoint temperatures on Wednesday morning. The front is almost to Houston. (Weather Bell)

Thursday through Sunday

We’ll have some great September weather after the front comes through, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s, overnight lows in the 60s (perhaps upper 50s for some inland areas and closer to 70 degrees along the coast). The drier air and full sunshine will feel fine.

See full post

Labor Day Update: Irma, the Gulf, and more

Good morning. I hope everyone is finding some peace on Labor Day morning. Our short-term forecast remains more or less locked in for the Houston area, with warm-ish days through Wednesday (highs in the low 90s) before a cold front moves through and brings absolutely splendid weather for the second half of this week. We may see some decent rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the approaching front, but even so most areas probably won’t see more than about a tenth of an inch of rain (if that).

With that said, we’ve had a lot of questions about the tropics—understandably people are still pretty skittish after our brush with Hurricane Harvey. We get that. So here’s a review of what’s out there. Also, I’d like to remind everyone that while the Atlantic hurricane season officially lasts until Nov. 30, for Texas is effectively ends in about three or four weeks. We are almost there, folks.

Hurricane Irma

All eyes are on Irma, a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph moving toward the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. It should reach the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Wednesday night, and poses a significant threat to the Caribbean Islands. Here’s the latest (10am CT) track forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

10am CT track forecast. (National Hurricane Center)

Understandably there is a lot of concern about where the system goes in five to seven days, when it begins to approach Florida and the continental United States. There has been a westward movement in the forecast models over the last day or two, leading to some local concerns that the track may continue to shift westward toward a Texas landfall. We continue to remain pretty confident that is not going to happen.

With that said, the storm’s movement after about Thursday is fairly uncertain. Generally, the ensemble members of both the European and GFS models show the storm moving west-northwest just north of Cuba, and making a turn north just before reaching Florida, over Florida, or just after Florida (into the eastern Gulf of Mexico). Irma is expected to make this northern turn after it finds the western edge of a large ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic region, but at nearly a week from now it’s impossible to determine where that will be.

See full post