Houston: From very, very dry to very, very wet in two days

Good morning. It’s chilly out this morning, and very dry. How dry? Atmospheric moisture levels (shown below) are barely 10 percent of normal levels. Enjoy the calmer weather because big changes are coming for this weekend.

Today

Expect a cool and sunny day, with light northerly winds. Highs in the upper 60s and lows Thursday night should see temperatures three to five degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

gfs_pwat_anom_houston_2
Precipitable water levels are only about 10 to 30 percent of normal levels on this dry Thursday morning. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Friday will bring about a change as winds shift to out of the east, and they’ll become gusty as moisture moves inland. At the same time a large upper-level low pressure system will approach Texas from the west, and these ingredients will set the stage for a wet—and potentially very wet—weekend. Friday itself should be mostly cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-60s, and a chance of light to moderate rain during the afternoon and evening hours.

(Space City Weather is brought to you by Harmony Strings this month)

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Houston’s mild weather about to turn a little wild—colder, wetter and then colder still

Houston has had a pretty dull fall, with warmer than normal temperatures, little rainfall, and almost no severe weather. But now things appear to be getting a little more interesting, with a wet weekend on tap, and significantly colder weather likely next week.

Today

After the region set record high temperatures on Tuesday (84 degrees, breaking a record from 2006), a cold front finally moved through last night. Temperatures this morning have fallen to around 60 degrees for most of the area, but the dewpoint has fallen off a cliff—the relative humidity this time on Tuesday was 100 percent, this morning it is 39 percent. Under mostly sunny skies temperatures today should rise to nearly 70 degrees.

Thursday

After lows start off in the low 40s north of Houston, and in the mid-40s for central parts of the city, we’ll have another spectacular day with a high near 70 degrees under fully sunny skies.

Friday

Friday will start off just a few degrees warmer than Thursday. But winds should pick up from offshore, returning moisture and setting the stage for what should be a wet, cool and gray weekend. Some rain is possible on Friday and Friday night, although it should be of the light to moderate variety. Highs will be near 70 degrees.

This rainfall accumulation forecast from NOAA seems a little too aggressive for me. (Weather Bell)
This rainfall accumulation forecast from NOAA seems a little too aggressive for me. (Weather Bell)

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Winter, it is coming

Yes, Houston set a record high temperature for today, with the mercury hitting 84 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. And yes, a cold front is now working its way into Houston that will provide some relief from the heat and humidity for the rest of this week. But that is not what I’m talking about. For this post I am referring to actual winter, as in…

WINTER

IS

COMING.

Yep.
Yep.

 

Prepare yourself for the the memes, because they’re coming along with what appears to be this season’s first real Arctic front in about eight or nine days. Houston might even record its first freeze of the season, but there remains a fair about of uncertainty regarding that.

First freeze, when?

Let’s start with a bit of climatology. The following graphic shows when, historically, Houston can typically expect to record their first 32-degree or lower temperature of the season.

Houston first freeze climatology. (Brian Brettschneider)
Houston first freeze climatology. (Brian Brettschneider)

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Houston will turn cooler Wednesday, but look for widespread rain this weekend

Good morning. Some coastal and inland counties are seeing dense fog this morning, which should lift by around 8 or 9 am. A dense fog advisory is in effect from the National Weather Service. Cooler weather is ahead.

Today

This morning’s fog is due to Monday’s brief cool front moving back in from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing, warm, muggy air with it. Fortunately another, stronger front is now moving toward the greater Houston area, and it should push through sometime this evening. Before the front arrives there’s a chance of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. We should see highs in the upper 70s today under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Drier air from the front is unlikely before sunset.

Wednesday and Thursday

Get ready for some spectacular, cooler weather to end November and kick off December. It looks like we’ll see highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees, with sunny skies, and moderate winds. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s, except for areas immediately along the coast.

Thursday morning should dawn nice and chilly across the Houston area. (Weather Bell)
Thursday morning should dawn nice and chilly across the Houston area. (Weather Bell)

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