Eric Berger

As of 7:30am CT on Saturday, Hurricane Irma continues to move westward, with its center just inland over the northern coast of Cuba. This more westward track, taking the storm over Cuba, is a scenario I discussed a couple of days ago—the Cuban—which would spare the Miami area the worst effects of Irma.

The track over Cuba has weakened the storm’s maximum winds to 130mph, and additional weakening is possible before Irma moves back into the Straits of Florida later today or tonight. Here’s a quick look at the official forecast track:

Here are the implications of this changing track:

Cuba: The island nation is being battered by the storm

Florida Keys: Still in line for a major hurricane today and Sunday. Expect devastating winds, rainfall and storm surge.

Miami area: As Irma continues to move westward, its center will bypass the Miami metro area, sparing the heavily populated southeastern coast of Florida from the worst effects of winds and storm surge. Hurricane force wind gusts are still likely, but they will probably not cause widespread damage. Inland rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are possible, and flooding is a significant concern.

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There’s not a whole lot to say new about Hurricane Irma this evening. So far, the storm is threading the needle through the area between Cuba and the Bahamas, and heading toward the Florida Keys. The Keys face widespread damage and this near hysterical tweet from the National Weather Service is entirely appropriate.

***THIS IS AS REAL AS IT GETS***

***NOWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SAFE***

***YOU STILL HAVE TIME TO EVACUATE***

Please RT. #Irma pic.twitter.com/VWLMEDWoUs

— NWS Key West (@NWSKeyWest) September 8, 2017

Now that we’re about 48 hours from a final landfall somewhere in Florida we can have a fair amount of confidence in the track forecast for Irma, but there are still some important questions that ultimately will determine which parts of Florida see really bad conditions, and which see catastrophic conditions.

Cuba?

As of 4pm CT, here is the official track for Irma:

If you look closely at the hurricane center’s forecast track between now and Saturday evening, it brings the eye of Irma very close to Cuba. Recent satellite images from Friday evening show a westward movement that may, in fact, bring the center of the storm over the island for a time. If this happens, we may well see some weakening from the storm’s present 155-mph winds.

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This afternoon I wrote a post for Ars Technica on how confidence in the track forecast for Hurricane Irma is increasing now that we are only about 60 or 70 hours from landfall. Track errors shrink with shorter lead times, and the fact that the official forecast has been so consistent with a likely landfall from the Florida Keys to Miami to West Palm Beach means that there is now a high likelihood in a landfall in one of those locations.

Essentially, this is a worst-case scenario for southern Florida. And this afternoon, the European model forecast had nothing but bad news for the state with the release of its 12z operational run. It made a slight shift west, with a landfall over the Florida Everglades.

This is really bad, because it not only keeps some of the strongest winds over the Miami region of southeastern Florida, it also pushes a very large storm surge into the beachfront property there. I am running out of words to describe the destructive potential of this storm.

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Houston’s weather will remain very fine through about Tuesday of next week. Combined with Wednesday’s cool front, a persistent northerly flow will keep highs in the mid- to upper-80s, and overnight lows in the low 60s for inland areas, and mid- to upper-60s closer to the coast. Drier air will feel great for everyone. We have no significant rain concerns for at least the next week or 10 days. Given this, for the time being, this site will continue to focus on the very active tropics, and specifically the destructive potential of Hurricane Irma.

Irma

Not a whole lot has changed with regard to the storm, or its potential track, during the overnight hours. The storm has weakened slightly, with a rise in its central pressure, and maximum sustained winds have fallen to 180 mph. Nevertheless, Irma remains an extremely intense and dangerous hurricane. Most of the forecast models bring Irma near Florida in about three days as a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, with the National Hurricane Center predicting a powerful storm with 150 mph sustained winds.

In its 4am CT track update (shown below), the National Hurricane Center didn’t change its forecast a whole lot. This keeps the landfall location squarely over Miami, and it’s difficult to argue too much with this forecast. However some uncertainty does remain, which I’ll discuss below.

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