Good morning. Houston remains in an active storm pattern and will likely do so through Friday morning or so. Let’s take it day by day.
TUESDAY
We’ve been in a much appreciated lull since Monday afternoon, and I expect that period to continue through at least this morning and early afternoon. That’s because warmer air aloft—a capping inversion—is going to limit the ability of air at the surface to rise. It’s not clear when the cap will break, but it’s possible that could happen as early as late this afternoon. The concern is that, once rains get going, there is the potential for severe weather in the form of hail, and damaging winds.
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night. (NOAA)
Well, the southern scenario did indeed play out today, with the bulk of the heavy rain remaining well to the south of the Houston metro area. Areas between Corpus Christi and Victoria received 8 to 12 inches of rain, but the city of Houston generally got 1 inch or less. This increases my confidence that we’re going to get out of this week without major, widespread flooding. But some trouble spots remain, and first up is Tuesday night.
Houston was spared yet another round of heavy rain Monday thanks to a southerly storm track. (Intellicast)
As the rains move out of Houston later this afternoon we’re going to see a break in widespread rain. There may be a few pop-up showers, but I think the radar is going to remain pretty clear for the next 24 hours. But by mid-afternoon Tuesday, with enough daytime heating, we could see some seabreeze showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. For me the bigger concern is a cool front, an associated storm system that is going to roll over central Texas during the day. That area is under an “enhanced” threat of severe weather as a result. This system may potentially impact the Houston area after sunset on Tuesday.
Severe weather outlook for Tuesday and Tuesday night in Houston. (NOAA)
Good morning. After a very soggy weekend, Houston is in store for more precipitation this week. There will be some locally heavy rains undoubtedly, but it’s my hope that the rain will be spread out far enough over the next four to five days that our bayous will have time to do their work, and we won’t see major, widespread flooding. Nevertheless it’s May, it’s storm season, so we certainly can’t be sure of that. Let’s discuss.
TODAY
An upper-level storm system is moving across the state, but it has remained to the south of the Houston metro area this morning, closer to Corpus Christi. Up to a foot of rain has fallen over parts of the Rockport, Port Aransas, and Corpus Christi areas over night. This was the southern scenario I discussed last night, which means Houston may potentially see less rain that than previously expected. There’s still some uncertainty, but I think as of right now the metro area is likely to see 1 to 3 inches of rain today, with higher amounts closer to the coast. Accordingly, Fort Bend, Brazoria and Galveston counties are under a flash flood watch this morning, but Harris County is not.
It’s still possible that very heavy rain will develop over central and northern Houston, but as of now it looks like the bulk of the rain will remain to the south. If that changes we’ll let you know. In any case, these storms will move off to the east by the afternoon or early evening hours, and I expect dry conditions tonight. Highs near 80 degrees.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY
After fairly calm conditions Monday night and Tuesday morning we’re going to see a warm day, with highs likely in the upper 80s. This heating, combined with an approaching cool front, will produce a chance of severe weather later during the day and evening. Although conditions will be more favorable for severe weather to the west of the Houston metro area, the city could still see some heavy rains, damaging winds and hail.
We’ve done OK today all things considered, with most areas of Houston receiving 0.5 to 2.0 inches of rain, and the heaviest concentrations clustered over west and southwest Harris County. So what’s next?
For some time we’ve been quite concerned about the potential for very heavy rain on Monday because atmospheric moisture levels were forecast to be quite high. And indeed that’s still a possibility. However now some guidance is suggesting that an upper-level storm system moving in from west Texas tonight will remain further to the south, around Matagorda Bay and points south.
The HRRR model, and other guidance, suggests the heaviest storms will develop south of Houston on Monday. This is a radar prediction for 8am CT. (NOAA)
So there are basically two scenarios: One in which the heaviest storms do track into the greater Houston area, and bring 2 to 4 inches of rain for much of the metro area beginning some time on Monday morning. Under another scenario the storms track further south, and the region sees weather more like today, or even a little bit more benign. In either case I think we’ll see drying conditions by the afternoon or, at the latest, early evening hours.
Which scenario happens? I am not confident to call it at this point, but I’ll have a full update in the morning when we have a better idea of what’s going to happen.
