Hey everyone. Just popping in with a quick update because we’re seeing some heavy rain moving into Houston tonight that was, frankly, somewhat unexpected. These showers are developing ahead of the main storm system, which is still well to the west-northwest of the Houston metro area.
Areas along the I-35 corridor are getting hammered by storms today, some of which are producing rainfall rates in excess of 3 inches per hour. The system is not moving much either. It all is likely a preview for what’s to come later this week for parts of Houston. However it should be stressed that predicting how much rain, and where the heaviest storms will occur remains highly uncertain.
TONIGHT
So far today only scattered, light to moderate showers have developed over the Houston metro area, particularly the east side. That’s likely to remain the case throughout the evening. I don’t anticipate any severe weather for the rest of today because most of the action will be off to the west of Houston.
However as that system over central Texas continues to move eastward, the Brazos Valley including College Station should begin to see its effects later, perhaps before midnight or shortly after. Expect 3 to 6 inches of rain (if not more) during the overnight hours for parts of Texas between Houston and Austin.
MONDAY and TUESDAY
Sometime on Monday, perhaps before noon, Houston will see the main area of showers and thunderstorms approach from the northwest. With ample moisture (being recharged by the Gulf of Mexico) and a slow-moving low pressure system parts of the Houston metro area will very likely see the same kinds of intense rainfall rates as are occurring in central Texas today.
Stepping outside one can feel the moisture in the air, and it most definitely augurs what is to come—heavy rain. So let’s discuss that.
TODAY
Strong winds from the southeast have done their work, increasing atmospheric moisture levels over the region. They’ve also led to a Coastal Flood Warning from the National Weather Service, pushing seas 2-3 feet above normal and flooding low-lying areas. The warning remains in effect through 1 p.m. on Monday.
Large scale features are still coming together for very heavy rains across parts of the eastern half of Texas today, Monday and Tuesday. There are near-record high levels of atmospheric moisture, a potent-upper level feature, and an inflow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to recharge the moisture with atmosphere. None of these large-scale patterns will tell us exactly where the heaviest rains will fall, however, as that will be due to more localized features like the locations of slow-moving boundaries related to individual storms. I write all of that to say this: There is the potential for very heavy rain, but we can’t say exactly where the storms will bomb out.
Here’s the latest on storms likely to bring heavy rain to Houston during the period of Sunday night through Tuesday.
TODAY
It’s cloudy and breezy this morning, and we’re going to see more of the same throughout the day. Winds should increase to the point today where we see gusts up to 25mph, and those southeasterly winds will bring lots of atmospheric moisture inland. Highs should reach into the upper 70s today and there will be a slight chance of light rain later today and tonight.
SUNDAY
Sunday will start out a lot like today, mostly cloudy, breezy and with similar temperatures. However a potent upper-level low pressure system will move into west Texas and should bring heavy showers and thunderstorms over central Texas, from Austin to Dallas, during the middle part of the day. Light to moderate rain will be possible in Houston during the afternoon and evening hours, but the potential for heavy rain really does not arrive until Sunday evening or during the overnight hours. For the most part travel on Sunday, during the day, should not be affected in the Houston region.
MONDAY
Some flooding is possible Monday morning, with the potential for heavy rain during the overnight hours on Sunday. However it now appears the best chance of strong showers and thunderstorms, and potential flooding, will come later on Monday and Monday night. In addition to ample moisture flowing off the Gulf of Mexico and the upper-level low pressure system, there will be divergent winds in the upper atmosphere that really force moisture at the surface to rise. This does not guarantee rainfall, but it does tell us that nearly all the conditions needed to produce very heavy rains will be in place.
