Matt Lanza

Tomorrow is the first day of August, which means we are now heading into the peak of hurricane season for the Texas coast through the end of September. It’s a marathon, and it’s important for all of us, residents, public officials, and forecasters alike to pace ourselves through the next few weeks. That’s partially why Eric and I are here, to let you know when a system is worth spending time worrying over. And right now, there’s nothing out there we need to be seriously concerned with.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

We are seeing tropical waves begin to move across the Atlantic with a little more aggressiveness now, and while some systems may develop over the next couple weeks, none at this point is a Gulf concern.

Near-term summary

The tropics have come to life in the last week, with several tropical waves that have at least managed to hold together more respectably than anything we’ve seen since hurricane season began.

You can see the waves lined up from earlier this morning on the satellite image above. The first one of note is what had been dubbed Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It’s moving into the Bahamas now. It’s not organized in any meaningful capacity, and I believe it has lost the 95L tag, but the NHC gives it about a 10% chance of doing so over the next few days. Because of another trough digging into the Eastern US, this system will likely get pulled north and northeast toward or east of Florida. At this point, I think this one is a non-issue.

Slightly longer-term outlook

The next wave is about two-thirds of the way to the islands from Africa and is not a concern. Behind it, however, is a rather robust wave that I think has a pretty good shot of development.

This one will not develop in a day; the hurricane center is giving it a 50 percent chance of development by the weekend just east of the Caribbean islands. Where does it go from there? Read on.

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We failed to reach a record low temperature yesterday, our last best chance to do that for awhile. But nevertheless, it certainly has been a nice couple days across Southeast Texas. Keep this one in the memory bank to get you to October. Summer will be returning today and tomorrow.

Today

While today won’t be quite as nice as the last couple days, humidity will only slowly return through the day. Look for an outside chance of a shower or two, mainly along the coast this afternoon. Otherwise, expect low-90s today under blue skies and sunshine.

Weekend

Rain chances return this weekend, but not everyone is going to get wet. Look for scattered showers or storms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons as the sea breeze works inland from the coast. If you are lucky enough to see a thunderstorm, you could see as much as a half-inch to an inch of rain perhaps. Most will see less than that, and others still will see nothing at all.

We really could use some rain. Over the last 30 days, unless you live in places like The Woodlands or Spring or Conroe, you’re probably hurting in the rainfall department.

In Fort Bend County, for instance, you’ve seen 25 to 50 percent of normal rainfall over the last month. So, it’s no secret that we’re hurting for some rain. As always in Texas, be careful what you wish for, but hopefully some of us will cash in with this weekend’s showers.

Outside of any storms, it will be a partly sunny and hot weekend. High temperatures will hit the low- to mid-90s and low temperatures won’t get much past the mid- to upper-70s.

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After officially hitting 68° yesterday morning, Houston has outdone itself this morning. We are down to 66° for a low as of this writing. That’s just 1 degree shy of today’s 125 year old daily record low. Unfortunately, we probably won’t get there now, but we made a valiant effort!

Widespread 60s were recorded across the area this morning. Closer to the coast, we’ve only been able to muster low- to mid-70s, but it still feels better than it normally would this time of year. The last time it was at least this cool in July was back in 1994, when we managed to hit 64° on the 29th.

Rest of today

Look for beautiful weather today once again. We expect wall to wall sunshine with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees, though with much lower humidity than usual for late-July. Today will be an ozone action day unfortunately; when we get these clear, dry air masses this time of year, it allows ozone to form. So consider air quality today “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” and be sure to take it easy if you need to on days such as this.

Friday

Tomorrow will begin our transition back to high summer. Look for another nice day with ample sunshine, but the humidity will slowly increase. Friday morning won’t be as delightful as the prior couple mornings, but it should still only be in the low-70s here in Houston. Look for mid- or upper-70s at the coast, and a few lucky far inland places may start Friday again in the 60s. Afternoon temperatures should be firmly back into the low 90s.

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We are firmly entrenched in a July or even August-type weather pattern with strong heat, high humidity. For those of us who wear glasses, this week has been a bit challenging in the morning when walking outside, as it’s like walking into a fog machine. We are going to start to see some changes, however, and they should begin slowly this weekend.

Today

We expect that Friday will be similar to Thursday. Watch for perhaps a couple showers along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Otherwise, today will be just sunny and hot today, with high temperatures back into the mid-90s. For once though, it might actually feel “nicer” in Houston than in much of the Northeast and Midwest the next few days.

So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Saturday & Sunday

While tomorrow and Sunday should be fairly similar to recent days, I do think we will have a very slightly better chance at seeing a few showers in parts of the area on both afternoons along the sea breeze. The slightly higher chance is probably on Sunday. After starting both days in the upper-70s, we will head into the low- or mid-90s during the afternoons. Have an umbrella handy to be safe, but your outdoor plans should be mostly fine I think this weekend.

Monday

A weak disturbance riding along the northern Gulf Coast from east to west will arrive in Houston Monday, likely boosting our odds for a few showers and storms just a little more to start next week. The best way I can characterize rain chances on Monday would be that if the weekend has about 20 percent chance, then Monday is probably about a 30 percent chance. We will warm from upper 70s to lower or middle 90s Monday afternoon again.

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