After officially hitting 68° yesterday morning, Houston has outdone itself this morning. We are down to 66° for a low as of this writing. That’s just 1 degree shy of today’s 125 year old daily record low. Unfortunately, we probably won’t get there now, but we made a valiant effort!
Low temperatures as of 6:30 AM Thursday are really impressive and really nice for July. (NOAA)
Widespread 60s were recorded across the area this morning. Closer to the coast, we’ve only been able to muster low- to mid-70s, but it still feels better than it normally would this time of year. The last time it was at least this cool in July was back in 1994, when we managed to hit 64° on the 29th.
Rest of today
Look for beautiful weather today once again. We expect wall to wall sunshine with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees, though with much lower humidity than usual for late-July. Today will be an ozone action day unfortunately; when we get these clear, dry air masses this time of year, it allows ozone to form. So consider air quality today “unhealthy for sensitive groups,” and be sure to take it easy if you need to on days such as this.
Friday
Tomorrow will begin our transition back to high summer. Look for another nice day with ample sunshine, but the humidity will slowly increase. Friday morning won’t be as delightful as the prior couple mornings, but it should still only be in the low-70s here in Houston. Look for mid- or upper-70s at the coast, and a few lucky far inland places may start Friday again in the 60s. Afternoon temperatures should be firmly back into the low 90s.
We are firmly entrenched in a July or even August-type weather pattern with strong heat, high humidity. For those of us who wear glasses, this week has been a bit challenging in the morning when walking outside, as it’s like walking into a fog machine. We are going to start to see some changes, however, and they should begin slowly this weekend.
Today
We expect that Friday will be similar to Thursday. Watch for perhaps a couple showers along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Otherwise, today will be just sunny and hot today, with high temperatures back into the mid-90s. For once though, it might actually feel “nicer” in Houston than in much of the Northeast and Midwest the next few days.
A rather large swath of the country is under Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat Advisories today and for parts of this weekend. Houston sees standard summer heat. (Pivotal Weather)
So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.
Saturday & Sunday
While tomorrow and Sunday should be fairly similar to recent days, I do think we will have a very slightly better chance at seeing a few showers in parts of the area on both afternoons along the sea breeze. The slightly higher chance is probably on Sunday. After starting both days in the upper-70s, we will head into the low- or mid-90s during the afternoons. Have an umbrella handy to be safe, but your outdoor plans should be mostly fine I think this weekend.
Monday
A weak disturbance riding along the northern Gulf Coast from east to west will arrive in Houston Monday, likely boosting our odds for a few showers and storms just a little more to start next week. The best way I can characterize rain chances on Monday would be that if the weekend has about 20 percent chance, then Monday is probably about a 30 percent chance. We will warm from upper 70s to lower or middle 90s Monday afternoon again.
Thus far, Barry has been virtually a complete non-event here in the Houston area. We have had a few showers and some nice sunrises and sunsets but not much else. We may begin to see a bit more activity today as Barry pulls out of the Southern U.S. and a slightly more complex pattern overhead allows storms to develop.
Rest of today
Tremendous bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms have been occurring all morning — in the Gulf of Mexico. Radar estimates 10 inches or more has fallen way out over the open Gulf, thankfully.
It’s been raining a lot — offshore. We should begin to see showers and storms develop onshore this afternoon. (College of DuPage)
That area of rain will probably begin to dissipate today and new showers and storms should begin to fire up this afternoon, especially along or southeast of US-59. Weather modeling still disagrees on exactly how this will play out, but in general, scattered showers and storms should continue off and on in that general area: Call it southern Fort Bend, southeast Harris, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties east to Port Arthur. Rains should be manageable in most cases, but we will want to keep tabs to see if any higher rain rates can get going. If that happens, some localized street flooding would be possible. Nothing to worry over, but something to monitor through tonight.
Overnight and Monday
Additional showers and storms may continue into tonight or Monday in those same general areas mentioned above. Again, localized heavy rain will be possible. How much rain in all when this ends?
Heavier rains south and east of Houston may deposit 1 to 3 inches on average, but both higher and lower amounts are possible. (NWS via Weather Bell)
I would expect an average of 1 to 3 inches south and east of Houston, with an inch or less average north and west of Houston. Some higher and lower amounts are both possible in those areas. We will watch this through the evening and update you in the unlikely event it is needed.
For those wondering how Louisiana is faring, things have been about as good as can be hoped for so far. Flooding is ongoing in spots, but severe, widespread devastating flooding has not materialized at this point. As heavy rains continue on saturated grounds, however, some problems could begin getting more troublesome. As of this writing, one significant band of heavy rain was aimed at the Baton Rouge area and another at New Orleans (which has fared fine so far). Flooding problems will worsen south of New Orleans unfortunately, in areas that have been relatively hard hit. If anyone cares to follow details on the event, I did create a list on Twitter with local Louisiana & Mississippi meteorologists, national tropical experts, and local government agencies and media.
Quick overview: Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Barry made landfall near Intracoastal City, Louisiana this afternoon and is now slowly marching inland over Louisiana. While significant impacts are occurring from central Louisiana through coastal Alabama, we just have a few gusty showers for now in Texas. A more organized area of coastal rain may develop tomorrow and Monday, but details are still somewhat uncertain on exactly how much rain will fall. Either way, we do not expect significant problems at this time, and there are no further tropical concerns to speak of.
Tropical Storm Barry & Houston’s outlook
Barry is moving inland over Louisiana this evening, spinning just west of Lafayette.
Tropical Storm Barry is slowly working inland over Louisiana. Offshore clouds indicate heavy rains that will work into Louisiana tonight. (College of DuPage)
Barry will continue a slow drift to the north-northwest and eventually north as we go through the night. All those clouds offshore indicates moisture, all of which will get thrust onshore into Louisiana tonight and tomorrow. Significant rains that have so far been worst in Alabama will begin to cause issues in Louisiana and Mississippi.
Maximum sustained winds are down to 65 mph, and a slow weakening will continue. Notice just a few bands of clouds on the west side of Barry heading into Texas. We’ve got some of the outer bands moving through Houston this evening. At times tonight, you can expect showers and some gusty thunderstorms, with winds perhaps of 20 to 25 mph, but not much worse.
Radar this evening shows bands of heavier showers pinwheeling through the region. Brief, gusty showers or thunder will be possible at times through the night. (RadarScope)
No significant rains or impacts will occur tonight. Tomorrow should start off fair, with no issues expected. A few showers and storms will become possible from mid-morning on. Eventually that could congeal into an organized, slow moving band of heavier rain and storms south and east of Houston, primarily along the coast or just a few miles inland. As such, the Weather Prediction Center has our area is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rain tomorrow.
The NWS Weather Prediction Center has outlooked the area in a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow. This will be mostly an issue south and east of Houston, though we aren’t especially worried about anything other than minor street flooding at this time. (NOAA)
We are not concerned about significant, widespread flooding tomorrow, but we do think that areas south and east of Houston, primarily areas of southern Brazoria County through Galveston County and up the coast toward Port Arthur stand the best chance of seeing a slow moving, “training” band of showers and storms. While this is not a guarantee, if this were to occur, we could see some mostly minor street flooding in places like Galveston or Lake Jackson tomorrow afternoon or evening. Just something to be on the lookout for right now, and we will update you tomorrow on what expectations look like. In general, rain amounts south and east of Houston will be 1 to 2 inches on average, with higher amounts possible. From Houston to the north and west, some places may see up to an inch or so, and others may see nothing at all.
So if you have outdoor plans in Houston or north and west, you can probably go forward with them, but you may be briefly interrupted by some showers. South and east of Houston and at the beach, consider a backup plan in the afternoon in case the steady rain spoils those plans.
Lastly, there have been a lot of rumors and banter and questions about this storm changing course or that thing 3,000 miles out in the Atlantic becoming a threat. That’s just not true. No reliable modeling shows the thing in the Atlantic even surviving into the Caribbean, let alone all the way to Texas. And the track of Barry has been pretty much set in stone since yesterday or even Thursday, truthfully. So you have absolutely nothing to worry over right now. More tomorrow.
