Matt Lanza

A 50/50 weekend ahead, questions next week

Just to tie a bow around Wednesday night’s cold front and severe weather: An EF-1 tornado was confirmed in Chambers County.

There was also a tornado in Colorado County near the Wharton County line. Texas City and Garden Oaks had straight line wind damage confirmed. The NWS was unable to confirm damage around Sealy, Katy, or Sugar Land, so they do not believe a tornado occurred in those locations at least as of Friday morning. More storm reports can be found here.

Today & Saturday

Today is our first morning officially in the 40s since April 16 of this year. We’ve hit at least 49° at Bush Airport as of 5:30 AM. We’re setup for a beautiful start to the weekend. Look for plenty of sunshine today and a little less wind than we saw on Thursday. High temperatures will rebound from our cool start into the upper-60s or low-70s.

Saturday begins our transition out of this autumn weather. Look for mainly sunny conditions again, but onshore flow will gradually develop through the day. We will start on a cool note with some scattered 40s well outside of Houston, but mainly low-to mid-50s for most. We’ll warm several degrees over Friday during the afternoon, with highs topping off generally in the mid-70s.

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Let the sun SHINE!

When I do Friday posts, I often have a problem where I feel as if I am writing too much about what’s happening with the weather. So I spend a good bit of time editing down some stuff and trying to focus on the important points. Today should be easy, as there is really only one important point: Sunshine!

Today through Sunday

This is the weekend we have been anticipating for months. It will feature mostly clear skies, pleasant temperatures, and pretty comfortable humidity. There are a couple things going on in the background to point out.

Satellite shows just some high clouds around the area this morning. Yesterday’s low clouds are off to our east. We’re setup for beautiful weather. (College of DuPage)

First, a few high clouds will stream across the region today, but they should not do anything other than add character to an otherwise blue sky. Look for temperatures to warm up into the middle 70s this afternoon.

A weak cool front should pass through the area this evening, but it likely won’t do much. Look for mid-to upper-50s in most spots and near 60 at the beach.

Saturday will be sunny and gorgeous. It will be a touch warm, but the low humidity will counteract that a bit. Expect generally lower 80s for high temperatures. We will be a few degrees warmer Saturday night, so expect around 60 in Houston, lower 60s near the beach and upper-50s northwest.

“Sun”day will live up to its name. It will be a little warmer still, with highs in the middle 80s possible. Again, mostly comfortable, low humidity will help.

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Friday night might be soggy in spots

Eric and I just wanted to provide a quick update to you tonight because the forecast has been a little tricky here.

Most of today has gone as expected. But the warm front that was supposed to hang around or south of I-10 into tonight has lifted a bit further north than expected, and is currently approximately straddling US-59. It also hit 80 degrees at both Hobby and Bush (81) today. The air mass over us is plenty conducive for heavier rain at times. That said, radar shows scattered showers and storms west and north of Houston as we told you would be the case this morning.

Scattered showers and storms are rumbling along west of I-45 this evening. (GR Level 3)

Some of this rain is fairly heavy. Thankfully, everything is moving along at a healthy clip so far, so it won’t rain too hard in any one location for too long.

The forecast from this morning deviates a bit from this point into the first part of Saturday. There have been some indications from various weather models this afternoon and evening that some areas around and southwest of Downtown Houston would see repetitive rounds of showers and storms through the night. The latest version of the HRRR model shown below also indicates this to some extent.

The HRRR model from late this afternoon shows some repetitive shots of showers and storms this evening and overnight in the Houston area. (Weather Bell)

Earlier runs of this model were a little more bullish on rain, but nonetheless, you get the idea.

So what does it mean? Neighborhoods primarily south of I-10 and west of I-45 stand the risk of seeing a few rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Rain amounts could be locally impressive in spots, on the order of 1-3″ (most of us will not see that much rain). If everything moves any slower than we expect right now, 4-5″ of rain could be a possibility in a neighborhood or two.

At this point, Eric and I don’t see serious flooding concerns tonight. Localized street flooding is always a possibility in the Houston area, but we just want you to be aware of a slightly wetter forecast in the region than perhaps was expected. And with folks out and about on a mild Friday night, we want you to know that some area football games could be dealing with some rain or lightning delays. If something changes to make this any more serious over the next few hours, we’ll let you know. But, again, we don’t feel that will be the case.

Cloudtober marches on

After a disappointing end to the Astros season, we could use a little sunshine around here to perk us back up a bit. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of great news looking ahead. We just offer thoughts on the forecast; we don’t control the weather. But we apologize nonetheless.

Today

Today will be another day of clouds and perhaps a couple sunny breaks in spots if you’re lucky. For those of you that missed warmer temperatures, you’ll be seeing some of those return today too. We crested into the 70s in Houston early yesterday afternoon, and we are already running about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning (mid-60s). So we’ll probably push the upper-70s today.

Radar as of 5:30 this morning showed heavy rain in spots from Matagorda Bay south to Corpus Christi Bay. (College of DuPage)

There will be a chance of showers and storms virtually anywhere at anytime, but as radar shows, the heaviest rains are likely to stay south of Houston. The Matagorda Bay region has seen the steadiest rains, but so far most places have only seen a quarter to a half-inch or so. As we go into this afternoon, the focus for the best rain or storm chances may shift to west or north of Houston.

Weekend

Our next cold front is in line to cross through the area later Saturday afternoon or evening. Expect a mild, somewhat muggy Saturday morning, with AM lows in the 70s south and east of Houston and mid-to upper-60s north and west. We’ll probably have scattered showers tonight into Saturday morning across the region. Not everyone will see rain though. As the front approaches during the afternoon, we will have another shot at some showers. I am not too impressed by the dynamics of this cold front as it approaches our area, so I am not terribly worried about any significant weather as it passes by. Rain chances will trend toward zero on Saturday night finally.

Most of the Houston area is expected to see a half-inch or less of rain this weekend. By Sunday evening, some areas toward Central Texas or down around Matagorda Bay may see over an inch of rain. (NWS Houston)

Expect temperatures ahead of the front to peak in the mid-to upper-70s south and east. Areas that see an earlier passage of the front north and west of Houston may not get much past the low-70s.

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