We always seem to lock into a dreary, gray pattern this time of year for a period of time, and this year, while a bit more broken up, looks similar. So enjoy today, which will be delightful!
Today
Beautiful. Expect sunshine and really stunning weather for late December. We’ll do lower 60s this afternoon, with a few spots maybe in the upper-50s. Other than a modest breeze and perhaps a few clouds late, it will be a calm, lovely day.
Tonight through New Year’s Eve Monday
We’ll be setting up another storm system over the area beginning tonight. While this one should not have nearly the impact of the storm we just got through, it will be a bit drawn out.
Clouds will increase tonight, with low temperatures probably being reached earlier in the evening than Thursday night into this morning. We should do mid- to upper-40s for lows.
Unfortunately, Saturday doesn’t look great.
Available atmospheric moisture increases from about 0.7″ this evening to almost 1.5″ by Sunday morning, meaning increasing rain chances through the period. (Weather Bell)
I’m hesitant to call it a washout right now, but I do think there will be a fair bit of light or steady rain and showers around during much of Saturday. Moisture begins to increase tonight, and it will further increase tomorrow and tomorrow night. Rain chances will probably start near the coast on Saturday morning and spread inland during the afternoon and evening.
We’ll be starting off the Christmas period with a bang today and tomorrow before some clouds build in for the holiday, followed by a potentially active period of weather later next week. Let’s dive into the details.
Today & Saturday
As we officially begin winter at 4:23 PM today, the season kicks off on a beautiful note. We had lots of wind yesterday, but most of that is gone now, and we’ll see sunshine with mid-60s this afternoon. A cool, crisp night in the low- to mid-40s will follow tonight. Look for essentially a repeat of Friday on Saturday, along with several degrees of added temperature. We’ll do mid-70s on Saturday under sunny skies.
It may be a bit warm for December, but it will really be a nice day Saturday. (NWS Houston)
It should be a stunner.
Sunday
A weak cold front will approach the area on Sunday morning and afternoon. After starting the day in the milder mid-50s, we should see our afternoon capped in the mid- or upper-60s. Sunday will probably have a few more clouds at times, though I think we will still see majority sunshine. A stray shower can’t be ruled out with the front, but most folks should stay dry. Some patchy fog is possible around Galveston Bay or on Galveston Island Sunday morning.
Let’s start off this morning by taking a look at the satellite imagery over Texas.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an impressive storm system in the upper atmosphere rolling across East Texas this morning. (College of DuPage)
You don’t often see such an interesting picture this far south. What you’re looking at is an upper level low pressure system that is responsible for our winds and some rain showers across the area this morning. Winds have been gusty at times, but for the most part things have been under control. As this upper low shifts to the east, we may see winds pick up again. They almost certainly will in coastal areas.Inland areas will be a bit more fickle.
Wind advisories remain posted for Houston and points south and east today, where maximum wind gusts could approach 35-40 mph. Inland areas probably won’t see winds much worse than have already been experienced. (NWS Houston)
As for rain, we have a few showers up toward Brenham and College Station. The focal point for showers as we shift into the morning and afternoon will be north of I-10 and probably east of I-45. With temperatures in the 40s across most of the area, all precipitation should fall in the form of rain. There could be some wet snowflakes mixed in well off to the north today, out of the Houston area. If there are heavier showers nearby, rain could also mix with ice pellets (sleet). But there would be no accumulation. Showers should diminish toward sunset.
Elsewhere, look for clouds to linger most of today, with gradual clearing holding out until tonight. With the clouds hanging tough, don’t expect a lot of movement in temperatures today. We should manage to get to around 50 degrees this afternoon and that will be all.
Weekend
There will be no weather woes this weekend across Southeast Texas. Look for plenty of sunshine on Saturday after perhaps a few stubborn morning clouds. Temperatures will warm up from the low-40s in the morning to around 60° during the afternoon. Winds will be on the decrease as well, so Saturday is about as perfect a Houston winter day as you could script.
Sunday should be close to equally as nice. Expect mostly sunny skies, though some added high clouds may gradually increase during the afternoon. We’ll be a few degrees warmer on Sunday afternoon. Look for low-to mid-40s in the morning (a handful of spots likely in the upper-30s too), warming up into the mid-60s during the afternoon.
Good morning, and I hope we all managed okay overnight. The worst of the rain is long past, though we will still have rain chances for a few more hours this morning. Then, we are just setup for a chilly weekend. Let’s walk through things here.
This morning
Radar as of 6:20 this morning shows sporadic showers across the region, with heavier rain marching east into Louisiana. We have one additional batch of heavy rain that stretches from near Victoria southwest to Beeville down in South Texas.
Radar as of 6:25 AM showed one final batch of moderate to heavy rain poised to move into the southeastern half of the Houston area this morning. (Radarscope)
This batch of showers will push through the southeast half of the Houston area over the next 2-3 hours. Once that clears, steady rain should end. I can’t rule out lingering light rain or drizzle the rest of today. But the risk for moderate to heavy rain ends with this last batch pushing through.
Travel
As of 6:45 this morning, there were just shy of 20 high water locations on area roadways indicated by Houston TranStar
Houston TranStar maps showed about 20 high water locations, dispersed throughout the area, as indicated by little water droplets on the map here. (Houston TranStar)
The high water locations are pretty evenly dispersed across the region. If you’re out and about early this morning, just keep that in mind and drive carefully. Never go around barricades.
Flooding
Overnight, we saw Keegans Bayou, Halls Bayou, Greens Bayou, Armand Bayou, Little Cypress Creek, and South Mayde Creek come out of their banks. As of 6 AM, several were still out of banks or at bankfull and slowly receding. Cypress Creek, Spring Creek, and Cedar Bayou are all rising but expected to stay within their banks.
The exception to this will be the West Fork of the San Jacinto River.
The West Fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble is heading into major flood stage and will stay there for a few days. (National Weather Service)
Because of heavy upstream rains and heavy rains in the area, all that runoff is filtering into the San Jacinto River, and it is expected to crest sometime by Monday or Tuesday in major flood stage at Humble. With the forecast of a 53.9 foot crest, major lowland flooding is expected with several subdivisions impacted. You can see the expected impacts at each level on the NWS website for this particular gage. For reference, this particular location crested just shy of 51.7 feet back in March. So this will be a bit higher.
Rain Totals
Houston officially had 4.31″ of rain on Friday, making December 7, 2018 the 5th wettest December day on record in the city, going back to the late 1800s. It was also our wettest single day since August of 2017, which we all know was during Hurricane Harvey.
Per the Harris County Flood Control website, most of the Houston area received essentially what was forecast. Most places saw 3-5″ of rain, with a few spots seeing more.
Total rainfall seemed to average around 4-5″ in most of Harris County, with a few spots seeing near or over 6″, and a few others seeing 3-4″ or less. (Harris County Flood Control)
With rain totals like this, it’s never how much falls, it’s how much of it falls quickly that really matters and is always the challenge for us in forecasting. Hopefully we made that clear in the runup to this storm. Fortunately, we’ve now got a few days to dry out, with our next rain chance not in the forecast until at least Wednesday night or Thursday.
