Matt Lanza

Another chance for storms before a quieter weekend

For parts of Houston, yesterday was a dry sandwich on rain.

Rainfall was prevalent both north and south of Houston, but not so much in town. (Harris County Flood Control)

How’s that, Matt? Well, from the map above, you can see The Woodlands had just shy of an inch of rain in spots from morning storms. Grimes County even checked in with over 2.5 inches near Navasota. Other locations from northwest Harris into Montgomery Counties also got measurable rain. Then, south of Houston, afternoon storms deposited over 2 inches near Hobby Airport and over an inch down toward Pearland, with some more rain in other spots. Inside Houston, it was mostly dry. The east side saw some showers, but rains were mostly limited for the Inner Loop and north and west of town. We will take another swing at some rain chances today.

Today

Radar is quiet around the Houston area this morning, with just a few dying showers to our south.

Radar is quiet around Houston, but there is a healthy cluster of storms west of Fort Worth and near Abilene. Those could impact places like Bryan or College Station by early afternoon. (College of DuPage)

The more impressive storms this morning are near Abilene and west of Fort Worth. Look for that cluster of storms to drop southeast through the morning, possibly arriving far northwest of Houston near College Station by early afternoon. At the same time, a new scattering of storms should develop in and around Houston after 12-1 PM or so. So, the bottom line today: Expect a mostly quiet morning, with scattered storms this afternoon. Those under the most persistent storms later today could see two to three inches of rain in a short time. But also like yesterday, some folks in the area won’t see any rain at all. Have an umbrella for later, just to be safe.

Before and outside of any storms, temperatures will top off within a degree or two of 90 by early this afternoon.

Weekend

We shouldn’t see much more than a passing shower or two in the area for Saturday and Sunday. Most of us will be dry the entire weekend. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will begin to heat up a notch further, with low 90s likely during the day away from the coast and upper-80s in Galveston. Nighttime lows will generally be in the lower of middle 70s inland and mid- to upper-70s along the coast or bays.

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More of the same for Memorial Day Weekend

Yesterday ended up seeing a few more showers in the area than expected, with a couple locations picking up about a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. Otherwise, it was dry. This holiday weekend will continue to bring limited rain chances, lots of sun, and plenty of heat, as it should feel more like late June than late May. After today’s forecast, we discuss NOAA’s hurricane outlook, released on Thursday.

Friday through Monday

Each day this weekend should be similar: Daytimes will be partly to mostly sunny and nighttimes partly to mostly cloudy. While we won’t advertise rain, there could be a couple brief showers in the area, particularly Monday afternoon. You should comfortably go forward with outdoor plans this weekend though. As Eric has noted this week, just keep hydrated and take it easy in the heat.

It’s always good to review swimming tips now. Rip currents will likely be an issue at times this weekend. (NWS Houston)

Rip currents will also probably be an issue at times this week on the Gulf, so it’s a good idea to do a quick review of the swimming safety tips above and always swim near a lifeguard.

As far as temps go, we will have a “back to the 90s” weekend! Look for 90° each afternoon, give or take a couple degrees. Obviously, it will be cooler along the Gulf, but even there will see mid- or upper-80s. Mornings will begin in the low- to mid-70s in most spots. Those of you out on the water will see southeasterly winds around 15 mph, perhaps gusting to 20 mph at times, especially today and Monday.

Next week

Look for continued heat and humidity most of the week. Rain chances remain on the low side for now, but there are perhaps some signs of slightly elevated shower chances as early as Wednesday, as strong Southeast U.S. high pressure begins to break down. This will allow for disturbances to edge closer to Houston by later next week. We’ll see if that actually happens, but it’s what to watch for change.

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What the heck was up with last week’s hail in Houston?

Last week’s storm system was mostly about the heavy rain and flooding, as Eric summed up nicely here. But the story that I think was most fascinating, meteorologically, was the hailstorm that hit some parts of the Houston area on Thursday night. The National Weather Service Houston office collected over 20 hail reports from the event, more than half of which were golf ball size hail or larger.

https://twitter.com/VortexChasing/status/1126686637394518016

Houston doesn’t often get hail this big over this wide an area. So what happened here? Why did we have so much big hail last Thursday?

Houston doesn’t see a lot of hail

If you look at the map of annual average 1+ inch diameter hail days per year (this from 2003-2012), you’ll notice Houston is mostly on the outside looking in at significant hail reports.

Severe hail reports are most common from Missouri and Kansas into South Dakota. (NOAA)

Why is this the case? For one, thunderstorm updrafts are needed to allow for the water droplets that become hailstones to get above the freezing level. Houston is a warm place, and that freezing level is often too high and the storms not powerful enough to carry those droplets high enough for large hail to form. Our lower freezing levels occur in winter and spring, making hail more likely then. In fact, of the 62 hail reports of 2″ in diameter or larger in NOAA’s storm events database since 1950 in Harris County and adjacent counties, only 3 of those reports have occurred outside of January through May. The average hail maxima is also where it is because they simply get more powerful, supercell thunderstorms with violent updrafts in the Plains.

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Still some rain to get through, but a break on the way for Houston

Good morning. We hope everyone is safe and doing well this morning. It has been a rough 12 hours in Houston and the surrounding area. From hail to non-stop lightning to flooding, I think we have all had enough. Numerous schools are closed this morning, including Houston ISD. Total rainfall over the last 24 hours has ranged from anywhere between 1 and about 7 inches across the region. On average, most places did 2 to 5 inches or so.

24 hour rainfall totals have ranged from 1 to 7 inches, but on average have been about 2 to 5 inches. (Harris County Flood Control)

Flooding update

There are still numerous spots around the city and suburbs dealing with high water and street flooding. An areal flooding warning is in effect for almost the entire metro area through 10:30 AM.

As of 5:10 AM, there were still a number of high water locations on area freeways, and street flooding was still ongoing in parts of the area. Use caution and give yourself plenty of extra time this morning if you will be commuting. (Houston TranStar)

There were still a number of bayous that were either near bankfull or out of their banks. Most were southeast of the city, particularly along Clear Creek which is experiencing minor flooding between Pearland and Clear Lake. Spring Creek to the northwest is still rising a bit and is out of its banks at Hegar Road, as is Little Cypress Creek at Becker Road. Armand and Hunting Bayous have crested and will continue to slowly fall. Halls Bayou has as well, but that I-45 area near Mt. Houston is still a mess.

You can view the latest status of bayous and creeks at the Harris County Flood Control website. On the upper left, just check the dial for “Channel Status.”

In terms of the larger rivers: The West Fork of the San Jacinto is rising at US-59 near Humble.

The West Fork of the San Jacinto River will crest later near moderate flood levels, or just a bit lower than the other day. (NOAA)

It will probably crest later today around a foot lower than we saw on Tuesday.

The Brazos will experience moderate to major flooding and is going to crest later this weekend about one foot or so shy of record levels at Rosharon. It will crest sometime today or into the weekend slightly less impressively, but still in solid moderate flood at Richmond. And it is going to stay high for a good time to come.

The Brazos River will likely crest by the end of the weekend at Richmond and Rosharon in moderate to major flood. The river is going to stay high for a while beyond that. (NOAA)

The bottom line: Be cautious this morning if you are out and about as there are a number of locations still flooding. But in general, conditions should slowly improve through the day.

This morning

Alright, let’s get into the forecast.

Radar as of 5:35 shows that the majority of the rain has shifted well east of the area. We are seeing new showers develop to the west and south of Houston. This isn’t unexpected, but it may mean some additional downpours over the next few hours, particularly along and southeast of US-59 from Victoria through Houston. There has been flash flooding in Galveston

The bulk of the rain has moved east of the Houston area as of 5:35 this morning. Additional showers are still possible through mid-morning. (GRLevel3)

These showers should gradually diminish and shift off to the east through the morning. There is simply very little “energy” left in the atmosphere over us to sustain new storm development. We’re tapped out after last night. So the trend should continue to be toward a drying one this morning.

This afternoon

Other than a handful of scattered showers in parts of the area, the rest of today looks quiet. We will have a chance to dry out a bit and clean up any mess left behind.

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