Matt Lanza

Easter weekend looking mostly un-egg-citing

After a pretty nice and quiet Thursday, we head into Friday with similarly decent weather. We have a couple question marks this weekend, but I don’t think it will be anything to really mar the Easter weekend. But let’s hop to it.

Today

Again, no issues today. I expect it will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Probably a lot of similarities to Thursday! High pressure is in control, but it is moving away, so onshore flow may get a little steadier late, which could lead to a shower or two in just a couple spots. More subtly, this will mean an increase in humidity very late today or tonight. But the bulk of Friday looks alright.

Saturday

The forecast gets a touch more challenging Saturday. A weak disturbance a few thousand feet up will pivot across the region, probably just east of Houston. This should be enough to set off scattered showers and storms, but also probably just east of Houston.

NAM model forecast shows a weak disturbance in Louisiana tomorrow that should keep most showers away from the Houston area. (Penn State)

So the bottom line on Saturday: It’ll be a bit more humid. It will also be a couple degrees warmer. While I can’t entirely rule out a shower or two in the area, odds favor most of us staying dry. The best chance for a scattered shower will be east of I-45 and probably as far east as Beaumont or Lake Charles. So if you’re headed to Hobbyfest or Buzzfest, it looks pretty good. The Houston Dash also kick off the season at BBVA Saturday afternoon. It looks great.

The weather for both the afternoon Dash match and the evening Dynamo match looks excellent!

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Galveston’s ridiculous run of warm temperature records continues

This past winter was definitely a warm one that set records in many spots across the country, but some of the most amazing warmth has come close to home—in Galveston.

For Texas and Louisiana, Winter 2016-17 was the warmest on record (back 122 years), but it was also near the top of the list in most of the eastern and central US. (NOAA)

 

For Texas and Louisiana as a whole, this winter ranked as the warmest on record (back to 1895). In fact, for most of the eastern half of the country, this was a top 5-10 warmest winter as well. For Houston, it edged out 1949-50 to be the warmest on record. For Galveston however, this winter was not the warmest on record. By 0.3°, that distinction still belongs to Winter 1889-90 (worth noting there are no weather records for that winter in Houston). But although the winter as a whole wasn’t a record, Galveston has been doing something arguably even more impressive.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Sublime spring weather continues

We’ve had a number of really, really nice spring days in recent weeks. And expect us to get another one today. Let’s get to it.

Colorado State Hurricane Outlook

First, I want to just touch on a report released yesterday from the tropical weather research group at Colorado State University. The CSU team produces one of the most widely used and anticipated seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic. Their forecast for this year calls for below normal activity in the Atlantic basin.

They’re going with 11 storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes for the 2017 season. Recall that last year saw 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and four major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricanes. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for 12/5/2 in that order. This year will be challenging with risks of another El Nino developing and some uncertainty as to what the ocean temperature profiles in the Atlantic Ocean will look like during the peak of the season. We’ve been in an active period of Atlantic hurricanes since 1995, and there are questions as to how much longer that will last. They will monitor these variables and update their forecast in early June.

Klotzbach’s team also helps put together landfall probabilities by county. You can examine the details yourself, but in the interest of ease, they give a 3.7% probability of one or more named storms making landfall in Galveston County, compared to a 4.3% chance historically in any given year. Texas as a whole has a 38.2% chance using their methodology, compared to a climatological average of 43.3% that a named storm will make landfall. In a nutshell: Slightly lower than normal odds for a landfall than in an average season.

Use hurricane outlooks with caution

There’s a BIG caveat here. Remember, seasonal hurricane outlooks are primarily an academic exercise. Operationally and for most of you, they don’t matter. If we have two storms in the Atlantic all season and one is category 4 that plows into Galveston, it was a below normal season but an awfully bad one for a lot of people. They’ve become a curiosity we need to share, and the group at Colorado State does really good and ultimately important research. But you should ignore this forecast and go ahead and think about preparing for hurricane season anyway. 

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by The Mole, a Jonathon Price novel.)

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Enjoy Friday, as Houston gears up for a stormy late weekend

After our wild Wednesday, we were treated to absolutely gorgeous weather yesterday in Southeast Texas. That will lead to another winner of a day today, albeit warmer. We continue to watch the weekend however, and the chance for both severe weather and heavy rainfall. Here’s the stormy breakdown.

Today

No weather trouble at all today. Expect ample sunshine, warm temperatures, and a breeze. We should make it into at least the middle 80s for high temperatures after a pleasant start this morning. Humidity will gradually work its way back ashore later today and tonight, but the majority of the day should feel pretty comfortable. That said, tree pollen (oak and cedar) remains high despite recent rain, and both grass pollen and mold spores are high also. So if you’re an allergy sufferer (raises hand), we still have a ways to go.

Quick cool thing I wanted to share. Here’s a satellite loop over South Texas this morning from the new GOES-16 satellite that was launched last November. This is experimental and non-operational data, as they’re still doing fine tuning, but check out how many lakes and different bodies of water you can detect on the satellite even at night.

Lakes and other bodies of water show up amazingly clear on a clear overnight in Texas. Experimental, non-operational data. (College of DuPage)

Amazing difference, and it’s like going from a clunky box of a TV to an HD set for meteorologists.

Saturday

The forecast gets a little trickier Saturday. Humidity will continue to flood ashore through the day. I expect we’ll see increasing clouds after a fairly sunny start. The last couple days it’s looked close for perhaps a few storms as early as late Saturday afternoon. Recent model data limits those chances until late evening. So while I think we’ll be dry during the day and early evening Saturday, if you’ll be heading up to the Shell Houston Open or to the Dynamo/Red Bulls match or Whatever Fest east of Downtown, just be aware later in the day in case it does get stormy.

(Space City Weather is sponsored this month by an anonymous donor)

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