Matt Lanza

More frequent rain chances for Houston

After an autumn that has seen Texas slip into drought and cooler weather than we’ve had the last couple years, we’re now adding a more active pattern with a few more rain chances to boot. A lot to cover, so let’s dive in.

Today

Today is a day where we need two or three forecasts for the area. You can see that on this satellite image from this morning.

GOES-16 satellite imagery is back online and officially operational. The back edge of clouds will try and push southeast today but it may not make it to Houston. (Univ of Wisconsin SSEC)

At the coast: Expect clouds and a chance of showers or periods of light rain. The steadier rain will stay offshore, but if you live within 20 miles of the Gulf, you will probably see some raindrops at times today, especially in the morning. Inland from there, including most of the Houston metro area, we’ll just be cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle is possible southeast of town in the morning, and some sunshine is possible in Houston and northwest during the afternoon. Further northwest of Houston, expect a mix of sun and clouds to develop. Temperatures will range from the mid-50s south and east to the mid or upper-50s with clouds and sun north and west.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday will see a change, as a brief surge of onshore flow leads to increasing rain chances as the day goes on. If you have outdoor plans, the morning might be your safest bet. Expect scattered showers or thunderstorms to break out from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches. Rain may be briefly heavy at times, along with some strong or even severe thunderstorms (mainly south and east of Houston) overnight Saturday. Right now, any severe weather looks pretty isolated and mainly east of the area. If this changes, Eric or myself will update you tomorrow.

Rain should quickly end from west to east across the area probably between about 12 and 3 AM Sunday.  The exception to this may be along the coast, where a few showers will linger through Sunday morning. Total rainfall for this event will probably be a half inch to an inch on average, with a few spots perhaps picking up one to two inches of rain.

NWS forecast of total rainfall through Sunday evening shows around an inch in most of the area. A few places will see more, others less. (NWS/Weather Bell)

 

Temperatures will top off in the upper 50s Saturday afternoon, then drop off behind the front Saturday night into the lower-50s. Sunday should see improving conditions with a bit of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper-60s.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Post-Harvey week in review: December 11, 2017

Welcome back to our weekly Monday wrap-up of Harvey and flooding-related news you may have missed over the last seven days. Let us know if we missed anything in the comments. Previous recaps are here:

Post-Harvey week in review: December 4, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 27, 2017
Post-Harvey week in review: November 20, 2017

Reads of the Week

Sunk Costs – Back-to-back record flooding along the Brazos River has forced people in Richmond to make an excruciating choice: Stay or go? (Texas Observer): The Brazos River at Richmond has seen four of its 10 highest crests on record since May of 2015. Some residents have flooded multiple times, and they now grapple with the question of where to go from here.

Developing Storm Part 1: Nature ruled, man reacted. Hurricane Harvey was Houston’s reckoning (Houston Chronicle): A multi-part series from the Chronicle began last week, and it aims to discuss the storm in the context of it not being exclusively a *natural* disaster. It’s worth reading. The first part discusses the reactions and decisions that had to be made in the heat of battle.

Developing Storm Part 2: Build, flood, rebuild: flood insurance’s expensive cycle (Houston Chronicle): Part two of the Chronicle series talks about the history of the National Flood Insurance Program. It discusses in depth how Congress has failed to act to make NFIP more fiscally viable.

Surveys & Symposiums

Survey: Harvey’s wrath affected 66 percent of Texans in its path (Corpus Christi Caller-Times): Two-thirds of people surveyed in counties affected by Harvey report that they have some sort of damage from the storm. They also report that help hasn’t quite been adequate to this point.

Report: An uneven recovery after Harvey threatens to leave people behind (Rice Kinder Institute): Almost half of people from Harris County that responded to an Episcopal Health Foundation and Kaiser Family Foundation survey lost income from Harvey. Seventeen percent of people from 24 counties surveyed are now suffering a new or worsening health condition. Harvey’s damage has stretched people and resources thin and has led to cascading impacts that will continue to be felt in the region and threatens to leave vulnerable and lower-income populations behind.

Where do we go from here? Houston-area leaders grapple with Harvey aftermath (Houston Chronicle): The Houston Chronicle held a symposium last week to discuss Houston after Harvey. Here are some highlights from that event.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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A Friday morning Houston winter wonderland

Roughly three and a half months ago, Houstonians took to social media late into the night to post frightening pictures and harrowing accounts of flooding devastating the city. Houstonians took to social media again late into last night and early this morning, this time to post festive pictures and share (mostly) joyous accounts of about as good a snow event as you could hope for in Southeast Texas.

As I write this, we don’t have official totals in yet, but based on pictures from all over, it looks like anywhere from a coating to 2″, give or take, in most of the Houston area. Obviously, College Station did quite well last night. They received 5″ officially, which would rank it their second biggest snow on record.

For the “official” number in Houston, I’d expect somewhere in the ballpark of 1.5″, which would rank somewhere in the top 10 or 15 for Houston snowfalls on record. The king, unlikely to ever be dethroned, is Valentine’s Day 1895’s estimated 20″, followed by 4.4″ on February 12, 1960.

This Morning

I know some people aren’t exactly overjoyed at the snow, especially those commuting early this morning. If you’re one of those folks, the good news is that most, if not all of the snow will be gone by about 9 AM.

Radar as of 6 AM shows lingering light snow near the coast and Bay Area. Snow should end completely by 7 AM or so. (GRLevel3)

That said, roads are icy in spots this morning, especially the flyovers on freeways. Use extreme caution while commuting. Any icy patches should dissipate as we warm above freezing by 7-8 AM. Temperatures will actually rise now that the snow has ended.

As we go through the rest of the morning, expect to see mainly cloudy skies. But things will get noticeably brighter as we work toward afternoon, and I think hopefully by Noon or so, Houston will see the sun again for the first time since before this cold snap began.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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Could Houston see ice pellets or snowflakes in the air this week?

As Eric noted this morning, it looked possible that areas well north of Houston could see some ice pellets (sleet) mix in with the rain tonight. That continues to look like a possibility, and the forecast looks intriguing beyond tonight too. Let’s talk wintry weather chances.

Tonight

Radar as of 5:30 PM Wednesday shows a good bit of shower activity in the region, especially north of Houston. Rain has been pretty light and mostly just added to the dreary ambiance of the atmosphere today.

Radar as of 5:40 PM showed light rain north and west of Houston, with a smattering of patchy drizzle elsewhere. (GRLevel3)

As we go into tonight, expect a few more rounds of rain, perhaps steady at times. Temperatures tonight should hold steady or continue a slow drop over most of the area, and I’d expect overnight lows to bottom out in the 38-42° range on average. That’s safely above freezing, so in and around Houston, I’d honestly be surprised to see anything other than plain rain tonight. North of Houston (say up toward Conroe, Hempstead, or Brenham), I wouldn’t be shocked if you hear some “pings” of ice pellets mixed in with the rain late tonight.

Thursday

I think Thursday is pretty straightforward here. We should see continued light rain much of the day. Temperatures aren’t going to warm up much. Upper-40s should be about as good as we do in some spots. Mid-40s will suffice in others. But mild-ish temperatures should prevent any wintry precipitation from mixing in.

(Space City Weather is brought to you this month by the Law Office of Murray Newman)

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