Matt Lanza

Rains tonight likely east of Houston

We aren’t quite done with rains yet in the Houston area, but there is some good news at least.

Taking a look at the satellite imagery from the still-not-quite-operational GOES-16 satellite this afternoon, you can see a “swirl” in the clouds over Southeast Texas. Specifically, this swirl is centered over southeast Montgomery County.

Preliminary and non-operational GOES-16 imagery shows a “swirl” in the clouds north of Houston. The system responsible for last night’s flooding has moved a bit farther east today. (University of Wisconsin SSEC)

 

This is the mesoscale convective vortex (or MCV) that’s been partially responsible for the mayhem across Texas the last couple days. This was over the Brazos Valley yesterday evening, and the heavy storms tend to develop on the eastern flank of these things. With that roughly over Spring now, that would seem to imply that widespread storms and rain tonight will probably develop east of I-45 and east of the hardest hit areas from this morning. That’s the good news.

In fact, we have some validation for this from the HRRR model, which did an acceptable job with the setup last night.

The HRRR model shows more widespread showers & storms mainly east of Houston tonight. Still, it’s close enough that you should stay aware of the weather tonight. (Weather Bell)

 

This suggests, yes, perhaps some scattered downpours around Houston this evening and tonight, but the sustained, heavier rains that could cause problems will probably be east of Houston, lined up roughly on an axis from Galveston through Winnie into Beaumont. Those areas can handle a little more rainfall than, say, Katy or Jersey Village can. Still, if you live in Galveston or Baytown or east of Houston, obviously you’ll want to stay alert tonight. And even if you live in Houston, it’s smart to remain cognizant of the situation. Though it’s unlikely we see a repeat of what we just went through, it’s always a good idea to stay weather aware during these heavy rainfall patterns.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Harris, Chambers, Montgomery, Liberty, Polk, and San Jacinto Counties through Wednesday morning.

The bottom line? A repeat of this morning is not expected in Houston tonight. Areas east of Houston stand the best chance of heavy rain tonight. Regardless, in Houston and east of Houston, it’s a smart idea to stay aware of the weather tonight and Wednesday morning.

Posted at 2:55 PM Tuesday by Matt

Houston’s version of cool mid-summer weather continues

Most people wouldn’t call the last couple days “awesome.” But then again, most people don’t live through Houston summers annually. We’ve had a couple days of tapping the brakes on our early August temperatures, with official highs of 90° on Wednesday and 89° yesterday. Though they aren’t refreshing days in the literal sense of the word, they’ve offered a nice break from the typical mid-90s broiler we have this time of year. We have a few things to talk about going forward, however.

Today through Sunday

All three days this weekend will feature somewhat similar conditions: Clouds, sun, and a good chance for a smattering of showers and storms each day. Temperatures will continue to be held back a bit. Expect upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon, contingent on exactly where and when showers and storms develop.

In terms of storms, I think the edge for best chance goes to Saturday over today. Occasional disturbances aloft will be moving across the region, giving the trigger needed for more widespread showers/storms the next couple days.

Colors on this animation indicate possible “triggers” for showers and storms this weekend. The best chances will be today and tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)

 

Another disturbance is possible on Sunday too, but as of today, weather models suggest that there may be more of a lid kept on storm development Sunday afternoon. We’ll see.

In terms of rainfall, expect varying totals this weekend, as is often the case in Houston’s summer. Some areas may not see much at all. Others could see 2-4″ from a couple heavy downpours. But overall, the rain should be mainly a nuisance than a serious problem this weekend.

Also worth noting, when the sun peeks out, you might notice another batch of Saharan dust in the skies over Texas this weekend. Sunrises and sunsets may look a bit different than usual.

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Houston’s highest heat of 2017 upon us

Thursday was the hottest day of 2017 to date. Hobby Airport hit 99°, tying a record last set in 1965, while Bush Airport officially hit 98° on Thursday. Friday has a chance to equal or top it, but there is some good news.

Today and Saturday

Simply scorching. High pressure remains on top of Texas. This will both limit rain chances and maximize temperatures today. Expect temperatures very near where they were on Thursday, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100° in and around Houston. Minimal relief at the coast, with Galveston through Matagorda seeing highs in the low-90s Friday afternoon.

A scorching map of NWS forecast high temperatures for Friday. (NWS/Weather Bell)

 

There won’t be too many showers around today, but as we saw on Thursday, you could conceivably get one or two that pop up in parts of the area (most likely south of I-10) and dump a couple inches of rain in a short time. But the majority of the region will stay dry.

Combined with a bit of humidity, it will again feel uncomfortably hot today. Heat advisories are unlikely, but regardless, you should take it easy outside today and tomorrow.

It’s always a good idea to review some heat safety tips. (NWS Houston)

 

Saturday will be similar, although the chance of showers may be just a tick higher, but temperatures will be fairly close to where they end up today. The best chance of showers will be east of I-45 and in Louisiana on Saturday. Still, a handful of downpours may occur around the Houston area Saturday afternoon or evening, and storms east of Houston could be a bit on the strong side.

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Heat continues, plus SCW featured in Houstonia Mag!

Before we dive into the forecast, just a quick note. Eric and I were interviewed by Houstonia Magazine for their August issue. In it, we give answers to some of the most common weather questions we get about Houston and our “crazy” weather, as JJ Watt so aptly put it on Wednesday.

Besides our Q&A, the issue looks like it’s going to be fantastic, with articles and lots of cool pictures from weather events of the past throughout the Houston area, so be sure to check it out and pick up a copy!

Onto the weather.

Today & Weekend

Houston’s high summer continues, with a lot of repetition in day to day weather around the area. I expect that today will look a lot like yesterday. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a couple more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon or evening, especially south and well east of Houston. Large scale high pressure in the upper atmosphere to our north weakens considerably day over day, which should at least offer up a more favorable atmosphere for storms. That said, I’m not sure we quite have a trigger in place for too many more of them just yet.

The HRRR model shows our frequent pattern of some storms at the coast this morning spreading inland this afternoon. Still, nothing too widespread just yet. (Weather Bell)

 

Either way, it looks hot and humid again today, with highs in the mid-90s in Houston. Yesterday and Wednesday were officially the two hottest days of summer so far, with high temperatures of 97° both days at IAH Airport.

For Saturday, upper level high pressure weakens even more, and we add an upper level disturbance to the mix. This combination should allow for much greater coverage of storms than we’ve had late this week. I don’t think Saturday ends up a washout or anything, but the odds that you’ll have to dodge some raindrops and lightning for a period of time are elevated. Be prepared to find some indoor shelter for a bit Saturday if you’ll be outdoors.

Likewise, Sunday should see that upper level disturbance overhead or nearby, leading to healthy coverage of showers and storms with daytime heating.

With clouds, showers, and a generally cooler atmosphere, temperatures this weekend will be held down. Expect an average of lower 90s in the city, hotter northwest with lower rain chances and cooler southeast with higher rain chances.

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