Matt Lanza

A mixed Labor Day Weekend for Southeast Texas

September 2, 2016 at 6:44 am by Matt Lanza

East Texas has been on the dry side of Hurricane Hermine in the Eastern Gulf. Typically we have onshore winds this time of year, but the last couple days, we’ve had winds coming from the north and northeast, ushering in just enough slightly drier air and sinking air to help temperatures surge into the mid and upper 90s (97° officially yesterday). Dry air is easier to heat up than high humidity air, so it’s been a hot couple of days. We’ll begin to transition back to typical late summer this weekend.

Today

Things start to get a little tricky today. Fortunately they won’t have major implications, but it may impact the details of the forecast a bit. A weak cold front to our north will drop southward today. It should essentially stall out and start to fall apart over us or to our north. Combined with the sea breeze returning, those two will act as a minor focus for some showers and storms this afternoon. The best chance for storms today will be west of I-45, but they will be very sporadic and hit or miss.

HRRR model forecast shows very spotty showers this afternoon, primarily west of I-45. (Weather Bell)

With a little more humidity and onshore flow (and storm chances), we’ll see high temperatures just short of where they’ve been the last couple days. Expect low to mid 90s today instead of the mid to upper 90s of Thursday.

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Beach weather may be at a premium this weekend

August 26, 2016 at 6:33 am by Matt Lanza

Heading to the beach this weekend? I may not be your best friend after today’s post. After scattered showers and noisy storms on Thursday, we have some morning rain moving in today. Over the weekend, an upper level area of low pressure over the Gulf, sort of mimicking a disorganized tropical wave should help produce a good deal of rain and storms along the coast. This may keep beach weather at a bit of a premium going through the weekend, though there are still a couple question marks. The details…

Today

A batch of rain was sliding in from the east this morning, and we have also had some thunderstorms along the coast. Weather models hold this shield of light to moderate rain together this morning, fizzling toward midday.

As we go into this afternoon, we should see additional hit and miss showers and storms pop up. Like yesterday, these storms will probably have a good deal of lightning and be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Not all will see them, but you’ll be well aware when you do. Temperatures should be held down a few degrees with additional clouds around, so expect upper 80s at best, mid 80s where clouds persist longer.

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Rinse, repeat cycle in Southeast Texas

August 19, 2016 at 6:49 am by Matt Lanza

We are firmly in what I like to call a rinse and repeat cycle here in Houston. Showers and storms have been resilient much of this week, and with that in mind, I’d expect we see another round of storms today.

While not unprecedented, our current “cool” streak continues to lengthen. Yesterday marked five straight days below 90°, which hasn’t happened within August since 2001. If we manage to avoid 90° again today, it will be the first time in 20 years that we’ve accomplished six in a row in August.

Today

Radar is quiet this morning, with just a couple showers at the coast, perhaps even fewer than yesterday. Similar to Thursday though, with the sea breeze spreading inland from late morning into early afternoon, showers and storms should fire up over a good chunk of the area. We may see locally heavy rain as this happens. Also like yesterday, we could see locally high water on some area streets, especially those typically prone to flooding. It shouldn’t take a lot of rain to accomplish this. Storms will keep moving though and it shouldn’t rain in any one place for too terribly long. All in all, similar to Thursday, but perhaps a bit less coverage/intensity than we saw yesterday.

Temperatures today will be contingent on how quickly the rain arrives. We still managed 88° yesterday despite a good deal of cloud cover in the morning, but with rain arriving just after Noon, temperatures were cut down. So upper 80s to around 90° is reasonable for today. If rain arrives a little later, we could break our 90-free streak today.

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Rain risk not quite done for Houston

August 18, 2016 at 6:35 am by Matt Lanza

With rain and storms daily, Houston has held up pretty well, particularly considering the terrible situation in Louisiana. Yes, there have been minor bouts of flooding in parts of the area, but the rain has moved quickly enough and sporadically enough for us to escape major problems to this point. And for the first morning this week, we don’t have any Flash Flood Watches in the area to tell you about.

7 day rainfall totals show a widespread 3-5", areas of 5-8", and a max near Cypress of over 1 foot! (Harris County Flood Control) — 7 day rainfall totals show a widespread 3-5″, areas of 5-8″, and maxes near Crosby of over 10″ and near Cypress of over 1 foot! (Harris County Flood Control)

We’re beginning to see this pattern finally erode a bit.

Today & Friday

The transition from this widespread daily thunderstorm pattern to something we’re more familiar with in summer in summer is underway: Morning coastal showers spreading inland with the sea breeze off the Gulf in the afternoon. You can see a radar forecast for today below:

HRRR model forecast radar for today shows storms spreading inland during the afternoon. (Weather Bell)

Basically, I would expect gradually fewer showers today and tomorrow compared to how the earlier part of this week has gone. That said, we’re still probably looking at a slightly stormier than usual pattern for August, just not as busy as it has been for much of the week.

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